For the first time in its four seasons under Jim McElwain, Central Michigan finished last season with a losing record, going 4-8 after starting the year 1-5.
The Chippewas faced a tough non-conference slate, and they’re looking at a similar situation this fall. College football betting odds currently list Central Michigan’s win total at 5.5 games, with the over at +110 and the under sitting at -130.
With seven games on the road and only five at home, this already puts the Chippewas at a disadvantage, especially with six of the road games being against bowl-caliber opponents. Four of their final games will also have them facing a team coming off a bye week.
Will the tough schedule stymie Central Michigan for the second consecutive year, or will they be able to reach bowl eligibility in McElwain’s fifth season and give the rest of the MAC trouble?
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Games to like
The lone contest that looks winnable in the first half of the season is against FCS opponent New Hampshire. After that, there isn’t another game that the Chippewas will be favored in until Week 7 against Akron. In the other five weeks, it’s hard to envision them being an underdog by less than a touchdown.
Following the home matchup with the Zips, CMU will travel to Ball State, which seems to be a toss-up as of late July. However, it is likely CMU’s defense will help win this game. Seventeen days later, the Chippewas visit Western Michigan, which should be another victory.
Games not to like
To open the season, CMU travels to Michigan State and then Notre Dame in Week 3. Things don’t get much easier the following three weeks after visiting South Alabama — who is projected to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt — and playing at Buffalo two weeks later. The Chippewas host Eastern Michigan in between these outings. It’s hard to trust them to win any of these games.
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On Halloween, Central Michigan will host Northern Illinois, and I’d give the edge to the Huskies in this one. NIU should bounce back from last year’s 3-9 campaign and will have a tough offense to contain, even for CMU’s defense.
Along with NIU, CMU’s next three opponents will also be coming off bye weeks, including a visit to Ohio on Nov. 15 before hosting Toledo in the regular-season finale. This will be a tough stretch to cap the year by hosting the two favorites to win the conference, even if there are nine days in between games.
Best bet
Assuming the Chippewas defeat Ball State in Week 8, this still puts them at four wins. They might be better than their record shows at the end of the season, but there’s no doubt that they have one of — if not the — toughest schedule in the conference.
Because of this, I would bet the under 5.5 wins. It wouldn’t be surprising if CMU pulled off an upset at some point in the season, especially in conference play. Week 5 at home against Eastern Michigan could be a prime spot for this, but even if that’s the case, that will still be only five wins, meaning there is some cushion with this bet.
