Two eight-win Group of Five teams, which were solid programs in 2024 but didn’t play quite well enough to make it to their respective conference championships, will take the field in the Bahamas Bowl.
Liberty again was among the best teams in Conference USA in 2024. The Flames were 8-3 overall after one of their games was canceled and were 5-3 against CUSA teams. They appeared to be heading toward a disappointing campaign when they lost against previously-winless Kennesaw State and followed that up with another loss against Jacksonville State at home.
But Liberty bounced back and put a three-game winning streak together, including a 38-21 victory over Western Kentucky. The Flames were in position to potentially return to the league championship after winning it in 2023 until they lost to Sam Houston in their regular season finale.
Buffalo, on the other hand, was one of the top squads in the MAC. The Bulls were 8-4 and 6-2 against conference teams. While they lost by double digits to teams like Missouri, UConn, and Ohio, they also pulled off some good wins like their victory over Northern Illinois when the Huskies were ranked and their 15-point triumph over Toledo.
A win over Liberty to end the season would certainly count as a quality G5 win, too.
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Buffalo vs. Liberty Betting Odds
Buffalo is a -3 college football betting odds favorite against Liberty, with the Over/Under being 50.5.
The moneyline for Buffalo is -150, while it’s +125 for Liberty.
Buffalo vs. Liberty On TV
The matchup between Buffalo and Liberty will be televised on ESPN2.
The game will kick off at 11 a.m. ET on Saturday, Jan. 4. The contest is taking place at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium in Nassau in The Bahamas.
Buffalo vs. Liberty Prediction
I predict Liberty will win and cover the spread at +3. I also project the game will go Under 50.5 total points.
Now that star quarterback Kaidon Salter has committed to transfer to Colorado and standout running back Quinton Cooley has declared for the NFL Draft, it’s easy to think the Flames won’t score as often as they have in their bowl game.
Except I’m not making this prediction based on their offense – which I’m confident will showcase some depth. I think Liberty’s defense will have a good game in this matchup.
The Flames were in the top 50 in the FBS in total defense (349.6 yards per game allowed) and scoring defense (23.3 points per game allowed). Buffalo was outside of the top 80 in both categories after allowing 28 points and 404.3 yards per contest.
Liberty’s offense, which ranked in the top 30 in the country with 434.5 yards per game, may take a step back here. But I think the Flames will make enough plays defensively to win.
