Montana State and North Dakota State are days away from facing off in the FCS championship game. MSU remains a 3.5-point favorite on BetMGM with the total points set at 56.5. Kickoff on ESPN is 6 p.m. CT on Monday, Jan. 6.
In what looks to be an evenly matched game, what are some keys and matchups to watch?
RELATED: FCS Championship Preview & Prediction
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Mellott vs. Miller
The color of the confetti raining down Monday night may come down to which quarterback plays better and who makes the biggest play in the biggest moment. They’ll square off, somewhat, Saturday night for the Walter Payton Award. But the FCS is fortunate to see these two standouts square off on the field two nights later.
Mellott is PFF’s No. 1-graded FCS quarterback (and ahead of all FBS QBs) while Miller is No. 2 in the FCS. They both have similar statistics. And they are both two of the most valuable players to their teams in the subdivision. They’ll need to make big-time plays with their legs and their arm to lead their squad to victory.
“Tim’s come in there and done a really good job, and they’re a team that is better now than it was back in August,” MSU head coach Brent Vigen said. “That’s apparent. They have some guys that have had those types of years, led by Cam Miller, that you need to take a team to these heights. He’s done phenomenal things throughout his career, but has certainly had his best year this year. When the moments have been biggest, he’s really shined. So he’s going to be a big challenge for us to contain”
LOS
MSU has slowly built itself up on the line of scrimmage after getting eaten alive in the trenches in past matchups deep in the playoff bracket vs. either SDSU or NDSU. The Bobcats look like they are now built just as strongly as those two heavyweights.
The Cats have arguably the best offensive line in the FCS, led by future pros Conner Moore and Marcus Wehr. NDSU has two fabulous defensive tackles in Eli Mostaert and Kody Huisman. The Bison haven’t been as dominant run-blocking this year, but they’ll swallow you up in pass-pro, led by NFL-level tackles Grey Zabel and Mason Miller. MSU’s d-line features All-American DE Brody Grebe, a Montana native who is the heart and soul of the defense.
Both squads will try to establish the run. MSU has the top rushing attack in the FCS. And NDSU will test the middle of the Bobcats defense to see how well it matches up to its downhill run game. The d-lines need to hold strong and force passing situations. And in those situations, they then need to make the QBs uncomfortable in the pass rush.
Mercer was able to get under Miller’s skin in the quarterfinals as he showed some frustrations with pressure. It’ll be key for MSU’s d-line to limit Miller’s time in the pocket and get the Bison offense out of sorts. NDSU’s d-line, meanwhile, has been ferocious. Mellott can deliver all the throws, but he isn’t one to sit in the pocket all day. If the standout DTs can bullrush and not allow him to step up and make throws, that could get Mellott to tuck the ball early and not allow things to develop downfield.
Responsible rush lanes will also be key in passing situations. Both quarterbacks are equally dangerous tucking it and running the ball if there is daylight. Defensive ends can’t get too far upfield, and the interior linemen can’t get pushed out and leave a gaping hole in the middle as the backers are dropping into coverage.
“The DNA of their program, the things that are important and the things that matter to us, I really believe Brent’s doing those things as well at a high level,” NDSU head coach Tim Polasek said. “It’s his program now and you’re seeing the development of offensive line. You’re seeing the development of d-line, linebackers. So they’re obviously practicing very physical like we do. And it’s fun to watch. I’ll tell you this, in the semifinals and this game, wow, you know, why are those four teams there? I think the line of scrimmage says a lot about how both teams play in this matchup. And then the two previous, the South Dakota teams play good up front as well.”
Grebe & Eiden vs. Zabel & Miller
As stated above, MSU can’t let Miller have all day to throw. He’ll pick a part any defense if so. On the flip side, as NDSU’s running backs haven’t gotten going much down the stretch, Miller and his pass-catchers may have to win this game. A clean pocket for Miller is key.
NDSU has two tremendous offensive tackles in Grey Zabel and Mason Miller. It’ll be a treat seeing them battle MSU’s top defensive ends Brody Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV.
Third Downs
Both offenses could find a lot of success Monday. Converting third downs will be crucial, as will getting off the field on third downs.
Miller has been magic on third downs, delivering accurate strikes in big moments while also utilizing his legs for back-breaking third-down conversions when the defense locked pass-catchers up. Montana State converts third downs at an elite mark. Third and shorts are nothing for the o-line and RBs to convert. Third and medium or third and longs are converted at a strong clip as well with good route-runners on the outside. And Mellott can use his speed so well if he has to tuck it and run, getting around the edge and beating a defender to the first-down marker as he angles to the sideline.
MSU is No. 2 in third-down conversion percentage, and NDSU is No. 3. The Cats are No. 12 in third-down conversion defense, and the Bison are No. 81.
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NDSU’s Safeties vs. MSU’s Offense
MSU’s offensive attack puts defenders, notably the safeties, in heavy conflict. The Cats are so run-heavy, yet do a great job of scheming up WRs or TEs to get open behind the safeties as they’re reading run. MSU does a lot of misdirection presnap and postsnap, so linebackers and safeties need to have good eyes.
NDSU’s safeties are talented, but they are also raw with inexperience, getting picked on at times over the top or tackling in space. PFF ranks the Bison No. 116 in FCS tackling. They will need their safeties to make big plays in the alley while also making sure they don’t bite on play-action. A guy like Ryan Jones, who is from Frisco by the way, played a dynamite game in the semifinals. He’ll need to make those splash plays again. MSU running backs Adam Jones and Scottre Humphre need only a small crease to burst into the second level, and strong open-field tackling is a must or else they’ll be rattling off chunk gain after chunk gain.
“The run-pass conflicts. Not RPOs. They have some of that stuff, but it’s the pause player. Maybe the linebackers, the boundary safety, the safeties. I mean, all these guys that we ask to support the run, not only vs. running backs and potentially even receivers, but you have to come for the quarterback,” Polasek said. “And so, it’s the run-pass conflict and the concepts that they deploy in the run game with the complimentary play actions. Sometimes it gets to be even a little bit of gadget-type plays. The pops and the hits. Just the run-pass conflict, they do an unbelievable job.”
Special Teams
Big returns. Flipping the field on punts. Blocked kicks or punts. Leaving points off the board with a missed field goal. The third phase of the game is crucial on a stage like this.
Turnovers
Turnovers are also crucial on a stage like this.
We saw the complexion of the SDSU-NDSU semifinal completely change when the Bison forced a turnover and turned it into points, halting the Jackrabbits’ momentum. MSU has avalanched teams in a hurry this year, and a turnover can spark that.
Bryce Lance vs. MSU’s Secondary
Bryce Lance has emerged as an elite target this fall. The 6-foot-3 wide receiver has 66 catches for 964 yards and 16 touchdowns. The next-leading pass-catcher is Chris Harris with 29 catches for 392 yards and two touchdowns.
MSU’s secondary has been solid this year, allowing 190.2 yards per game to rank No. 30 in the FCS. They’ll face their toughest challenge yet in defending the Miller-Lance connection.
Red Zone
In what could be a higher-scoring game, finishing drives with seven instead of three will be a difference-maker.
MSU is No. 1 in red zone offense compared to NDSU’s No. 6. The Cats are No. 31 in red zone defense compared to No. 22 for the Bison.
Podcasts
- FCS Championship Preview
- Colter Nuanez Discusses Montana State’s Path To Frisco
- Mike McFeely Discusses NDSU’s Return To Frisco
Calculated Risks
With two weeks of prep, do these teams pull something out of their hat? A trick play? A fake field goal or punt? A surprise onside kick? It’s a way to swing momentum. But also, if it fails, it could come off as desperate and give the other team a blood-in-the-water feeling.
Quick Start
With that extra time of prep, offenses have usually had strong opening drives in recent FCS championship memory. The scripts are well thought out and well-schemed, and then the defenses adjust, and then it’s game on. So it’s important not to jump to too many conclusions when the offenses come out guns blazing. At the same time, a quick start is still key. MSU can grab a 2- or 3-score lead in a hurry, and that will be very difficult for any team to come back from with MSU’s rushing attack grinding out a big lead. And if NDSU jumps out to an early 10- or 14-point lead, does doubt creep into MSU’s mind as the ghosts of past NDSU games start to surface?
Extend Lead To 2 Scores
If either team is up a touchdown and then gets a stop, that next drive is crucial for the offense and defense. While NDSU has made plenty of comebacks before, and MSU can score in a hurry, a team that can capitalize and push their lead to two scores will be in a great position to take full control of this game.
For how good the offenses are on both sides, it’s hard to see either team relinquishing a two-touchdown lead.
Connect On Deep Shots
Miller is money on his deep ball. And MSU can pop an explosive play over the top at any moment as the defense tightens up to stop the run.
When the offenses dial up a long ball and the receiver has a step or two on his defender, Miller and Mellott need to connect on those plays. In an evenly-matched contest like this, those opportunities for big plays can’t be squandered by an overthrow or a drop.
Who Wins The Inch?
In tight playoff games, there are always a few plays here or there, an inch here or there, that makes the difference. More often than not, NDSU has found a way to make the winning plays in crucial playoff moments, whether it be SDSU this year, Montana State in 2023, UIW in 2022, JMU in 2021, JMU in 2019, and so on.
Small things make a big difference when you look back on them post-game. Settling for a field goal to go up 10 instead of 14. Running backs getting tackled from behind near the end zone after busting a big run, and the offense can’t punch it in and settles for three. Loose balls that the defense can’t come up with. Dropped interceptions. A quarterback escaping a sack and making a play downfield. Winning or losing 50/50 balls. Getting stopped just short of the first-down marker on third down. A penalty that pushes you out of field goal range or a third and short situation. An overthrow. A dropped pass. A made or missed shoestring tackle. A targeting call that disqualifies a key player from the game. Pass interference on a third-and-long incompletion to reset the chains. Etc.
If this championship bout is decided by one score, there will likely be an argument from the losing side pointing at one or two plays/sequences as the difference in the game.
Who makes the winning play in winning moments?
