Toledo and Louisville, the two teams playing in the Boca Raton Bowl, performed much differently at the end of the regular season.
Toledo (8-4) was highly competitive in the MAC and nearly made it back to the conference title game. The Rockets started the year with a near Power Four upset at Kentucky, losing 24-16, but then rebounded with wins over Western Kentucky and Morgan State.
The Rockets lost three of their next five games, though, against Western Michigan, Bowling Green, and Washington State with wins over Akron and Kent State during that stretch.
The Rockets closed out the regular season, however, with four consecutive wins over Northern Illinois, Miami (Ohio), Ball State, and Central Michigan. And none of those games were decided by less than 18 points.
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Louisville is 8-4 overall as well but looked much better just a couple months ago.
The Cardinals started the season with four straight wins over Eastern Kentucky, James Madison, Bowling Green, and Pitt. Following a loss to Virginia, which appeared in the ACC Championship, Louisville then beat Miami, Boston College, and Virginia Tech.
But the Cardinals lost three straight to Cal, Clemson, and SMU, taking them out of ACC title contention. They did close the regular season with a win over Kentucky.
And now they want to get one more win in their bowl game.
Toledo vs. Louisville Betting Odds
Louisville is a -8.5 college football betting odds favorite against Toledo, with the Over/Under being 43.5 as of this writing. The moneyline for Toledo is +260, while it’s -325 for Louisville.
Toledo vs. Louisville On TV
The matchup between Toledo and Louisville will be televised on ESPN.
The game will kick off at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 23. The contest is taking place at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.
Toledo vs. Louisville Prediction
I predict Louisville will win but Toledo will cover the 8.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 43.5 total points.
Toledo will be playing without head coach Jason Candle, who is now at UConn. And I expect his absence, as well as the absence of other assistant coaches, will change the complexion of this game.
The Rockets had, statistically, the most productive offense and defense in the MAC this season. They led the league in scoring offense (31.6 points per game) and scoring defense (12.2 PPG allowed) as well as total offense (421.8 yards per game) and total defense (247.8 YPG allowed).
So I can easily see Toledo keeping this game competitive early. In fact, I anticipate it will be a low-scoring battle in the first half.
But I also believe Louisville will pull away and win.
