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Boise State vs. Nevada Prediction, Preview & How To Watch

Ron Counts by Ron Counts
October 24, 2025
Boise State RB Dylan Riley

AP Photo/Steve Conner

Dylan Riley doesn’t need to lose himself in a song or listen to an adrenaline-inducing pregame speech to get in the zone before running out of the tunnel. 

For the Boise State running back, every broken tackle, every touchdown, and every moment of his college career is about making his father, Willie, proud. Riley’s father passed away this summer, leaving a void that is impossible for many to understand. 

Nobody would have blamed him if he wanted to step away from football to mourn and focus on his family. His mentor, coach, and confidant was gone, but Riley didn’t wallow in his sorrow. Instead, he has emerged as the next star running back at Boise State with 552 yards and five touchdowns in the past five games – numbers that have fans reminiscing about another star running back, former Bronco Ashton Jeanty.

Riley will continue to be motivated to play at a high level for his father when the Broncos (5-2, 3-0 Mountain West) hit the road to face Nevada on Friday. 


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Riley said he got a tattoo on his back earlier this year that includes an image of his father and reminds him of a promise he once made. It reminds him why laces up his cleats day after day.

“My dad, he got me here in the first place,” Riley said Saturday after putting up a career-high 201 rushing yards in the Broncos’ 56-31 win over previously unbeaten UNLV. “So, in general, my job is to keep fulfilling the promise that he gave me and I gave him, which is to make it to the (NFL).”

Riley leads Boise State’s crowded backfield with 695 yards and six rushing touchdowns, four of which he scored against Air Force. He is averaging 8.1 yards a carry. 

Nevada (1-6, 0-3) has lost five straight, including a 24-22 setback at New Mexico last week. 

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Standing Out In ‘The Stable’

There were signs that Riley was a hidden gem in Boise State’s backfield, which has become known by fans as “The Stable.” The 5-foot-10, 192-pound sophomore ran for 2,059 yards and 29 touchdowns during his final season at Rancho Verde High in California. 

Riley was known for his speed long before he ever stepped onto the blue turf in Albertsons Stadium. Fans got a glimpse last season when he returned a kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown against Utah State. 

What people might not have known was how that speed would translate into Boise, Idaho, being home to another game-changing running back a year after Jeanty finished as the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy.

Riley has shown on multiple occasions that all he needs is a sliver of space and he’s gone on any given play. He may not have Jeanty’s power, but Riley is a threat to score every time he touches the ball – a trait he shares with the Las Vegas Raiders’ newest lead back, who posted 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground last season and was picked No. 6 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. 

Riley isn’t the running back who came into the season with all of the hype at Boise State. Redshirt freshman Sire Gaines was the runner people expected to be putting up eye-popping numbers. If not him, surely veteran Jambres Dubar or sixth-year senior Malik Sherrod would emerge to carry the load.  

Dubar has just two carries because of an injury. Gaines (373 yards and four TDs) and Sherrod (223 yards and two TDs) have been solid, but neither has shown the ability to take over games the way Riley has. He put up 171 rushing yards and five total touchdowns against Air Force and averaged 13.4 yards a carry against UNLV. 

Boise State vs. Nevada Betting Odds

Boise State is a 21.5-point college football betting odds favorite against Nevada, via BetMGM. The Over/Under is 51.5 points. The moneyline is at -2000 for Boise State and +1000 for Nevada. 

Boise State leads the all-time series 32-14, and the Broncos have won eight of their past nine games against Nevada, dating back to 2011. 

Boise State at Nevada Prediction

I predict Boise State wins 42-14. 

More impressive than how Riley ran the ball against UNLV was the way Boise State’s offensive line and defensive front seven dominated the Rebels at the point of attack. The Broncos’ running backs cruised through gaping holes, and the defense was just a step faster than UNLV at almost every turn. 

Boise State’s offensive line looked special last week. They could push Nevada around, too, but they’re going to have their hands full against a pair of talented pass rushers in Dylan LaBarbera (5.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss) and Jonathan Maldonado (four sacks and 7.5 TFLs). 

If the Broncos’ line can keep paving the way for Riley and company the way it did against UNLV, the Broncos are going to end their time in the Mountain West with their third-straight championship. Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Utah State are all leaving to join the Pac-12 next season.

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