I’m bringing back the Group of Five best bets for bowl season. I’ll aim for five best bets before Christmas and another five best bets after the holiday.
I went 37-33 on the best bets during the regular season, a respectable yet unspectacular record. Here’s to hoping the bowl game best bets turn out spectacular. I’m still looking for the perfect 5-0 week of picks, a goal that has proven surprisingly elusive this fall.
Let’s dive into the college football betting odds and pick some bowl game winners.
Southern Miss -6 vs. Rice
The Eagles covered in five of their final six games this season, and Rice is dealing with injuries at the quarterback position. I’ve been bullish on Southern Miss all season, so why stop now? The Eagles run the ball well and play decent defense, and I’m expecting them to be motivated to cap off the year with a winning record. I’ll take them to win by a touchdown or more.
UConn +10 vs. Marshall
How about UConn?? The Huskies, despite struggling mightily in recent seasons, are going bowling. I expect UConn to be a tad more excited for this game than Marshall, which won eight games and beat Notre Dame. There’s something to be said for appreciating the bowl experience, and I like that Marshall is a defense-oriented team.
The Thundering Herd winning this game wouldn’t surprise me, but I expect the game to be close. Marshall won its last four games of the season, with the wins coming by an average of 9.3 points per game. None of those four wins came over teams with winning records. Marshall rarely blows teams out, due to its offensive shortcomings.
Air Force +5.5 vs. Baylor
Air Force covered in its final four games of the season, and Baylor defensive coordinator Ron Roberts is no longer with the program and joined the staff at Auburn. Uncertainty on the defensive staff isn’t ideal against a unique, run-oriented Air Force offense. Air Force does well to keep games low scoring, in part due to controlling time of possession with a successful rushing attack.
I can see the Falcons winning a low-scoring affair. Even if they don’t win, I’m more comfortable siding with the underdog in what I consider a fairly even matchup.
Liberty +5 vs. Toledo
Liberty finished the season horribly, and head coach Hugh Freeze left the program for Auburn. This feels like a good buy-low spot, so I’ll take a shot on Liberty. The Flames, when at their best, were really good this season. They defeated BYU and Arkansas in consecutive weeks.
If Liberty returns to respectable form, the Flames are a solid underdog this bowl season. I don’t think they’re as bad as the recent 49-14 loss to New Mexico State reflects.
South Alabama -4.5 vs. WKU
South Alabama is one of the best Group of Five teams in the country. While Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed will play in the game, the Jaguars are a complete team with playmakers on both sides of the ball. Western Kentucky has been loved by oddsmakers all season, but the Hilltoppers’ results haven’t matched the way they’re viewed by advanced metrics.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
