There may have been a little bit of hype taken out of Saturday’s matchup between UCF and Cincinnati after the Knights’ upset loss to East Carolina last week.
So what?
That just helps prove the importance of this game, and that it’s one of the biggest Group of Five games — if not the biggest — of the season. The hype is very much still there.
But before we get into the contest, let’s briefly touch on what happened to the Knights last week in a loss that dropped them to 5-2 overall and 2-1 in AAC play.
Turnovers were the main cause for concern. UCF turned the ball over on each of its first three possessions — a fumble and two interceptions. Each drive was in ECU territory and one was in the redzone. The Pirates turned those three turnovers into 17 points. All of their first-half points came off a UCF turnover. ECU had no problem moving the ball and each of its first six drives were inside the UCF 11-yard line. Holton Ahlers and the Pirates’ offense weren’t fazed by the Knights’ top-scoring defense in the AAC (17.1 points per game) and took advantage of UCF’s offensive miscues.
It’s obvious the Knights can’t make those same mistakes Saturday. Can they force Cincy into some, though? We know how rowdy the Bounce House can get. Just ask former Bearcat Desmond Ridder:
Turnovers or not, we can expect the Knights’ defense to play better against a Bearcat offense that is second in the conference only to UCF in scoring, putting up 36.9 points per game. They’ll need to if they want to win this game and still give themselves a chance to compete for an AAC title.
For the Bearcats, however, they’re almost guaranteed a spot in the AAC championship if they pick up a win here. They will face a competitive ECU team and currently No. 23-ranked Tulane, who is 7-1 and 4-0 in AAC play, in their last game of the season. Both of those contests are in Cincinnati.
With a loss, however, there’s that chance of not being invited to a New Year’s Six bowl game. CBSSports’ Jerry Palm is projecting the Bearcats to play in the Cotton Bowl against Oregon. Here at HERO Sports, we want nothing more than to see a Group of Five squad on the big stage. While there are conference implications and bragging rights on the line, this is another factor to be talked about within this game.
There’s no reason to assume Cincinnati will do anything different Saturday than what’s been working for them this season. The 6-1 Bearcats have found success running the ball and what seems like grinding out wins, although their contests haven’t been quite as close as the scores may indicate. The rushing attack has been led by Charles McClelland, who leads the conference in yards per rush with 6.9 and is second in the league with 90.1 YPG.
It’s not unexpected that the Cincy offense may have taken a step back from last year with the loss of Ridder, Jerome Ford, and Alec Pierce to the NFL Draft. It doesn’t seem to matter much though, the Bearcats are still putting up points.
And so are the Knights.
UCF averages 511 YPG, the highest in the AAC by 39 yards. With the Cincy defense allowing 305 yards and 22 PPG, it could be a hurdle for the Knights to maintain this production. If they do, John Rhys Plumlee can’t have a repeat of last week’s performance where he was responsible for those three early turnovers and tossed another interception late in the game. He was also sacked four times. Uncharacteristic for the Ole Miss transfer, who had just five total turnovers entering the game – three picks and two fumbles.
Plumlee leads the league in individual total offense with 331 YPG and is fourth in rushing (72.3 YPG). The dual-threat signal-caller will need to do what he’s been doing if the Knights have a chance in this one.
This is the final matchup between these AAC rivals and Group of Five juggernauts before they head off to the Big 12. They’ve represented the G5 schools well during their time though, that’s for sure.
