Another 3-2 week last week moved me to 25-20 overall (55.5%) on my Group of Five best bets. I’ll gladly take that record through 45 bets, although I’m still bummed I’ve yet to fire off a 5-0 week.
On the flipside, I’ve avoided the dreaded 0-5 week this season. Did I just jinx myself?
For this week’s bets, I stay away from the MAC and C-USA, but I have a pair of plays from the AAC and Mountain West. I also sprinkle in one Sun Belt bet. Let’s take a closer look at the college football betting odds to find the wagers I’m making this week at the Group of Five level.
And I’ll try to redeem myself in the intro section, as the last time I mentioned FBS wagers, I lost both. But hey, let’s try again. This isn’t an official pick for this column, but I like Louisville (+140) to upset No. 10 Wake Forest this weekend. Tail that at your own risk.
UCF -1.5 vs. Cincinnati
Despite a subpar performance in its 34-13 road loss at East Carolina, the Golden Knights are still favored over the ranked Bearcats. When an unranked team is a favorite over a ranked team, that usually signals to me to bet on the unranked team. Often, oddsmakers have a better pulse on the teams than AP Poll voters, and the general public loves to bet on ranked underdogs in these situations.
Even after last week’s loss, I like UCF’s team, and Cincinnati has won its three AAC games by an average of 5.3 points. The Bearcats are close to losing.
Tulsa +2.5 vs. SMU
I’m officially off the SMU train. The Mustangs let me down against Maryland, TCU, and UCF. While they covered against Cincinnati, they still took the outright loss. With four defeats on the season, will SMU still be motivated the rest of the way? Tulsa has played well at home, and I’m fine taking the Golden Hurricane over an SMU team that continues to fall short of my expectations.
San Diego State +8.5 at Fresno State
I’m a bit surprised at the size of this spread. While the Aztecs are offensively inept, the defense and special teams units are plenty capable. Fresno State seems to be finding its groove, but with a total of 41.5, I’m comfortable taking the underdog in what I’m expecting to be a low-scoring battle. I’m also not sold on Fresno State, as a blowout win over New Mexico doesn’t make up for several lackluster performances.
Wyoming -10.5 at Hawaii
Traveling all the way to Hawaii adds a challenge for Wyoming, but Hawaii is in a significant rebuild. They’re not a good football team, and Wyoming is only one win away from bowl eligibility. I’ve been impressed by Wyoming this fall, and I like the Cowboys to win by a couple of scores. Running back Titus Swen should wear on Hawaii’s defense, and the Cowboys’ defense has held four opponents under 20 points this season.
Marshall -2.5 vs. Coastal Carolina
This game had potential to be a major showdown earlier in the season, but Marshall stumbled a few times after beating Notre Dame. While the Thundering Herd aren’t elite offensively, they have one of the best defenses in the country, and they run the ball well with Florida State transfer Khalan Laborn.
Coastal Carolina lost 49-21 to Old Dominion its last time out, allowing 10 yards per carry in the defeat. I like Marshall’s defense to slow down Grayson McCall, and I think the rushing attack propels Marshall to its second consecutive win.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
