No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five football has been fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.
And now we’ve got bowl games to look forward to this weekend. Here’s my predictions for Saturday’s bowl games involving G5 teams.
Pitt vs. East Carolina Prediction
I predict Pitt will win but East Carolina will cover the 10.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
While East Carolina is expected to have some of its players available, like All-American Conference wide receiver Anthony Smith, the Pirates will also be without some of their stars like quarterback Katin Houser due to opt-outs.
Still, ECU is a pretty well-rounded squad with some depth. The Pirates are 14th in the country in total offense (464.7 yards per game) and 22nd in scoring offense (33.5 points per game). And I think they’re capable of putting up some points in this matchup.
Pitt is also pretty solid on both sides of the ball, ranking 15th in the country in scoring offense (35.1 PPG) and 39th in total defense (337.2 YPG allowed). So I do believe the Panthers will get the win here, but I think ECU will keep it closer than 10 points.
UConn vs. Army Prediction
I predict Army will win but UConn will cover the 8.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 42.5 total points.
UConn wide receiver Skyler Bell, a G5 All-American, is expected to play but Huskies quarterback Joe Fagnano and others will not play in this matchup. And without head coach Jim Mora, I think UConn’s absences will be impactful.
I also don’t see this being a good matchup for the Huskies. Army is fifth in the country in rushing with 245.5 yards per game on the ground, and UConn is 114th in rushing defense with 185.5 yards per game allowed.
Army is also top 50 in the nation in total defense (349.9 YPG allowed) and scoring defense (22.08 points per game allowed). So I think the Black Knights will be in control of this game on both sides of the ball, even if I do believe UConn can keep it to within one possession.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State Prediction
I predict Fresno State will win and cover the 5.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 41.5 total points.
This is a battle of two incredible defenses. Fresno State is 14th in the nation in total defense, allowing 293.5 yards per game, while Miami (Ohio) is 31st in total defense with 329.6 YPG allowed.
The Bulldogs are 25th in the FBS in scoring defense with 20.08 points per game allowed, and the RedHawks are 44th with 22 PPG allowed. And neither offense has been particularly consistent, as neither team is in the top 50 for points or yards.
But I do think the Bulldogs will be a little bit better on that side of the ball. So while I anticipate this will be a defensive battle, I believe Fresno State will lean on its ground game and score just enough points to earn a bowl win.
North Texas vs. San Diego State Prediction
I predict North Texas will win and cover the 6.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
This is a battle between one of the best offenses in the country and one of the best defenses.
San Diego State is fourth in the FBS in scoring defense with 12.58 points per game allowed and is sixth in total defense with 266.7 yards per game given up. North Texas is first in both scoring offense (44.8 points per game) and total offense (504.3 yards per game).
Opt-outs could very well impact this matchup compared to if it had taken place during the regular season. But one player we know is planning to take the field is the G5 Player of the Year, Drew Mestemaker, even if he is entering the transfer portal after this bowl game.
The North Texas quarterback leads the country with 4,129 passing yards and is second with 31 passing touchdowns. He’s completed 70.2% of his passes and has thrown just seven interceptions while rushing for 71 yards and five touchdowns this year.
Competing with SDSU’s defense won’t be easy, but I think Mestemaker and the Mean Green find ways to score enough points for a victory.
