Bowling Green let a handful of chances slip away last week against Ohio. The Falcons had four turnovers and failed to capitalize on Ohio’s mistakes.
BGSU lost 35-20 and failed to cover the 10-point spread as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
For this week’s selection we go to Conference USA for a great Friday night matchup.
Western Kentucky (Spread +2.5, Moneyline +120) at Delaware
The top two offenses meet in this CUSA tilt where the Hilltoppers are averaging 35 points per game while the Blue Hens are scoring 31 PPG. Both teams also rank first and second in the league in total yards.
With that being said, I believe the Over seems like it could also be a good play here. The Over/Under is 61.5 at BetMGM as of this writing. These defenses haven’t been anything to write home about this year. Statistically, though, WKU’s defense has been a little better.
One of the reasons I like the Hilltoppers to cover this spread is because I think WKU quarterback Maverick McIvor will have success against UD’s pass defense. The Blue Hens are surrendering 241 passing YPG while McIvor leads the league with 294.8 YPG. He’s also only thrown two interceptions, and the Blue Hens only have four takeaways this season. Two of those came last week against FIU.
I like WKU and McIvor to have no issues moving the ball and to have no issues when they get into the red zone. They lead the league in long scrimmage plays (10-plus yards) and have scored a touchdown on 77% of their red zone trips (17 for 22). Delaware has given up 45 plays of 20-plus yards this year.
I don’t like that the Blue Hens are coming off a bye and have been dominant at home the past few years, going 20-3 on their own field since 2022, but I think the Hilltoppers understand what’s at stake here and what a loss could mean for CUSA Championship aspirations.
WKU is 13-8 against the spread as an away underdog under head coach Tyson Helton.
Honorable Mentions
New Mexico (+2.5, +120) at San Jose State
The Lobos (3-1) have been one of the surprises in the Mountain West this season and are already one win away from going over their preseason win total of 3.5.
First-year head coach Jason Eck is having early success and now looks to carry that into conference play. This could be a win that lets everyone know the Lobos are for real. Even in a close loss, I think that will be a takeaway.
UNM has been playing fast and confident defensively and I think will give SJSU’s offense fits like it did against UCLA and New Mexico State in its last two outings.
I don’t expect the Spartans to have much success running the ball against UNM’s defense that only allows 111 rushing YPG, so that means SJSU may have to lean on QB Walker Eget to make plays. He leads the MW with 296 passing YPG but only has six TDs and three interceptions. The Spartans average 102 YPG on the ground.
If the Lobos limit Eget, I don’t see SJSU scoring much.
New Mexico is 3-1 ATS this year and 2-0 as an underdog.
FIU (+7.5, +235) at UConn
It wasn’t a strong showing for the Panthers their last time out when they lost 38-16 to Delaware at home. Now coming out of a bye, I think the Panthers are eager to put that bleak performance behind them and play more like the team that defeated FAU three weeks ago for the first time since 2016.
The Huskies have won their last two games, but their offense hasn’t been as explosive as it was earlier this season. They’re still averaging a solid 190 rushing YPG, but FIU’s rush defense has been stout this year, only allowing 147.3 rushing YPG and four rushing scores.
FIU is 3-1 ATS this season.
Temple (+6.5, +195) vs. UTSA
I was high on UTSA entering the season, but seeing the Roadrunners struggle to put away Colorado State didn’t give me much confidence in them going forward. We’ll certainly learn more about UTSA in this week’s American Game of the Week.
Regardless, Temple has shown some fight against superior opponents this year, and I like the Owls to do the same here at home in their American opener.
Temple is 7-6 ATS as a home underdog the past three years.
