With the arrival of the 12-team format in the College Football Playoff, that now guarantees at least one Group of Five team will make the CFP.
That team will need to win a conference championship, and that won’t be easy in any G5 league this season. Here’s a look at the G5 teams that have the best chances of appearing in the College Football Playoff and competing for a national championship.
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2025 G5 CFP Predictions
I predict Boise State will be the G5 team that makes the CFP this season. That’s an easy pick considering the Broncos are the top Group of Five program in the Associated Press Top 25 this week.
The Case For Boise State
Boise State has the best betting odds to make the College Football Playoff and win the national title among Group of Five teams. And I don’t think there’s a strong case to argue against that.
Yes, the Broncos lost to Oregon in Week 2. But the Ducks are a top-10 team in the country, and Boise State nearly beat them on their home field. That’s what a top-tier college football team does.
Boise State has an elite offense that features running back Ashton Jeanty, who has a chance of winning the Heisman Trophy this season. The Broncos’ defense isn’t perfect, but they are capable of producing turnovers and pressuring quarterbacks, and sometimes that’s all you need.
If quarterback Maddux Madsen can continue to develop as the year goes on, I think the Broncos have a great shot of winning the Mountain West with just one loss during the regular season.
The Case For Memphis
Memphis was a frontrunner by many to represent the G5 in the College Football Playoff during the offseason, but the Tigers took a step back when they lost to Navy a couple weeks ago. Before that, they beat North Alabama 40-0 in Week 1 and then followed that up by beating reigning Sun Belt champion Troy 38-17. And their best win thus far was in Week 3 when Memphis won a Power Four matchup against Florida State.
Seth Henigan is a seasoned quarterback who has the experience to deal with pressure. If Memphis needs him to win a game with his arm, he can deliver. Memphis also has great playmakers around Henigan like running back Mario Anderson and wide receiver Roc Taylor.
Memphis is still a good team and can still win a competitive AAC. If the Tigers do that, they will still be considered for a CFP spot.
The Case For UNLV
UNLV is one of five Group of Five teams which is undefeated after Week 5. And among those squads, the Rebels have had the most difficult schedule.
UNLV opened the season with a 27-7 victory over Houston. And after beating Utah Tech 72-14, the Rebels earned a second Power Four win in a 23-20 contest at Kansas in Week 3. UNLV could further cement its case for a CFP spot against Syracuse this week.
UNLV’s defense has been impressive thus far, and it will need to continue to be against Mountain West foes.
2025 CFP Betting Odds For Group of Five Teams
There are a few G5 teams with college football betting odds to make the CFP, via BetMGM. The Group of Five teams with betting odds at BetMGM are:
- Boise State +200
- Liberty +400
- Memphis +750
- UNLV +1100
- JMU +1200
- Tulane +1600
- Louisiana +2500
- Toledo +2500
- Texas State +4000
- Bowling Green +4000
- Army +4000
- Northern Illinois +4000
- Western Kentucky +5000
- Navy +5000
- Fresno State +6000
- Coastal Carolina +8000
- USF +8000
- North Texas +12500
- Arkansas State +15000
- Colorado State +50000
2025 CFP Championship Odds For Group of Five Teams
There are also betting odds for G5 teams to win the national championship. The 12 squads with betting odds to win the title at BetMGM are:
- Boise State +20000
- Liberty +50000
- Coastal Carolina +100000
- Tulane +100000
- App State +100000
- UTSA +100000
- Memphis +100000
- Fresno State +100000
- UNLV +100000
- Miami (Ohio) +100000
- Toledo +100000
- Texas State +100000
2025 College Football Championship Predictions
I predict Texas will play Ohio State in the College Football Playoff championship with Texas winning.
Right now, I think the Longhorns, no matter who’s at quarterback, are the best squad in college football.
Projecting the teams to win the SEC and Big Ten is especially difficult because those two conferences are always loaded with talent, and this year is particularly tough with Texas now in the SEC and Oregon and USC now in the Big Ten.
But from my perspective, Texas and Ohio State are the most complete teams and would be the most prepared to make it through a daunting CFP bracket.
College Football Playoff Teams Projections
I predict Texas, Ohio State, Miami, and Utah will be the top four teams in the College Football Playoff at the end of the season.
I predict the conference championship winner ranked the next highest will be Boise State, and I believe the CFP Selection Committee will rank the Broncos No. 12.
From there, I’m projecting Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Tennessee, Penn State, Oregon, and Missouri will be in the CFP.
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2024 CFP Games Schedule
The first round of the CFP will be played on Friday, Dec. 20, and Saturday, Dec. 21. The CFP quarterfinals will take place on Tuesday, Dec. 31, and Wednesday, Jan. 1. The CFP semifinals will occur on Thursday, Jan. 9, and Friday, Jan. 10.
In the first round, the No. 12-seeded team will play at the No. 5-seeded team. The No. 9 team will go on the road to face the No. 8 team. The No. 11 team will travel to take on the No. 6 team. And the No. 10 team will compete at the No. 7 team.
The winner of the 5/12 matchup will play the No. 4-seeded team in the quarterfinals. Whoever wins the 8/9 contest will go against the top-seeded team. The victor in the 6/11 contest will next face the No. 3 team. And whoever is triumphant in the 7/10 bout will compete against the No. 2-seeded team.
The winners of the games involving the No. 1-seeded team and the No. 4-seeded team will square off in the semifinals, and the winner of the games involving the No. 3-seeded team and the No. 2-seeded team will also play in the semifinals.
The victor of those two contests will see each other in the national championship.
College Football Playoff Rankings
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has yet to release any rankings and will do so for the first time on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
So if we’re going off of the Associated Press Top 25 after Week 5, the teams in the CFP right now would be:
- No. 1 Alabama
- No. 2 Texas
- No. 3 Ohio State
- No. 4 Tennessee
- No. 5 Georgia
- No. 6 Oregon
- No. 7 Penn State
- No. 8 Miami
- No. 9 Missouri
- No. 10 Michigan
- No. 11 USC
- No. 12 Boise State
New 12 Team College Football Playoff Format
The College Football Playoff will feature 12 teams for the first time this season.
The five highest-ranked conference champions in the FBS – decided by the CFP selection committee – will make the field, as well as the seven highest-ranked teams that didn’t win a conference title.
The four conference title winners ranked the highest will earn a bye, while the remaining squads will compete in the first round.
The higher seeds in those matchups will host in the first round. The top-four conference winners with the bye will be given a bowl game, like the Sugar Bowl, and the four teams playing in the two semifinal games will also be assigned to another bowl.
Re-seeding will not occur, nor will alterations be made to avoid rematches from the regular season or contests between teams in the same conference.
