The FBS college football has finally arrived. And for Group of Five teams, the battle to win their respective league and make it to the College Football Playoff will be exciting to keep track of.
But first, those programs have to make it through the regular season. Here are some against the spread and Over/Under predictions for G5 teams this week.
Upset of The Week: Tulane vs. Oklahoma
I predict Tulane will win and cover the spread at +13.5. I also project the game will go Over 47.5 total points.
I think this game is setting up nicely for the Green Wave. They just proved a week ago that they can keep up against a top-notch team from a power conference. And Oklahoma showed some weaknesses in Week 2.
The Sooners won at home 16-12 against Houston, a team that was beaten by a G5 team in UNLV during Week 1. Oklahoma gained just 249 yards of offense in that clash.
I don’t think the Sooners can afford to have that poor of an outing against the Green Wave. Tulane’s offense, led by quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes, is explosive. I think the Green Wave can continue to put up points in Week 3.
I also like what I’ve seen from Tulane’s defense. So if the Green Wave can fix some of the mistakes from last week, I’m confident Tulane will keep this game close at the very least.
Memphis vs. Florida State Prediction
I predict Memphis will win and cover the spread at +6.5. I also project the game will go Over 52 points.
Florida State went undefeated during the 2023 regular season and won the ACC a year ago. But this is a different team that’s facing plenty of issues.
The play of transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei hasn’t been spectacular. And as an offense, the Seminoles are averaging just 17 points and 292 yards per game. Granted that was against two ACC teams in Georgia Tech and Boston College.
But the thing is, Memphis also has the talent of an ACC-level program in 2024.
Seth Henigan is a seasoned quarterback who has the experience to deal with the atmosphere in this matchup. So far this year, he’s thrown for 469 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions on a 70% completion rate. If Memphis needs him to win this game with his arm, I think he can deliver.
Memphis also has great playmakers around Henigan like running back Mario Anderson, who’s rushed for 171 yards and four touchdowns, and wide receiver Roc Taylor, who leads the team with 114 yards on nine receptions. Memphis has also allowed just 17 points in its first two games, so the Tigers can lean on their defense if needed as well.
I think this game will be close, but I’m anticipating the Tigers will score enough in the fourth quarter and will force a few key turnovers to triumph here.
UNLV vs. Kansas Prediction
I predict UNLV will win and cover the spread at +7. I also project the game will go Under 58 points.
I think the Rebels have already laid out the blueprint for how they would want to win a game like this. As long as it’s a low-scoring affair, UNLV should have a chance.
And that’s a bit of an identity shift after the Rebels were a high-scoring team a year ago. But their defense has been stout thus far, allowing just 247 yards against Houston, which went 3 of 18 on third and fourth downs in that clash.
UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka has completed just 14 of 30 throws this year. But he has five touchdowns compared to one pick and is leading the team with 129 rushing yards to go with another score on the ground. If he can manage things on offense and sustain a few drives, I believe this UNLV defense is strong enough to lead the Rebels to a win.
North Texas vs. Texas Tech Prediction
I predict North Texas will win and cover the spread at +9.5. I also project the game will go Under 69.5 total points.
I’m not the only one who thinks this game will end up as another Group of Five upset over a Power Four program. There’s plenty of good reason to be optimistic about what the Mean Green can do.
That’s especially true for UNT’s offense. Chandler Morris has thrown for 737 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 68% completion rate. The Mean Green are averaging 527 yards and 43.5 points per game.
That was against South Alabama, which went through a coaching change this offseason, and Stephen F. Austin, an FCS team. But Texas Tech has not been overwhelmingly great either.
The Red Raiders barely beat Abilene Christian, another FCS program, 52-51. They then lost at Washington State 37-16.
I don’t expect these two squads to combine for 70 points, but I think UNT’s offense will succeed again just enough for an upset.
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Prediction
I predict Oklahoma State will win and cover the spread at -20.5. I also project the game will go Over 62.5 total points.
Oklahoma State isn’t a perfect team. But the Cowboys are still averaging over 40 points a game and nearly 390 yards per game.
I don’t think Tulsa can keep up with that offensive firepower. The Cowboys should be capable of winning by more than three touchdowns.
Arizona State vs. Texas State Prediction
I predict Texas State will win and cover the spread at +1.5. I also project the game will go Over 59.5 total points.
Texas State is in a great position to win this game. And when it comes to pulling off upsets like this, quarterbacks usually play a critical role. The Bobcats have the QB who could lead them to a victory here.
Jordan McCloud has been effective for Texas State thus far. He’s thrown for 547 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions on a 68% completion rate while rushing for 39 yards and two touchdowns in 2024.
The Bobcats also have a fantastic group of skill position players, including running back Ismail Mahdi, as well as a defense that limited UTSA to 334 yards and 10 total points.
Defeating Arizona State won’t be easy. The Sun Devils just beat Mississippi State last week. But I think Texas State is the better team, especially at home.
Colorado vs. Colorado State Prediction
I predict Colorado State will win and cover the spread at +7. I also project the game will go Under 58.5 total points.
The Buffaloes have a few star players like Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. But aside from them, I don’t think their roster talent overall was worth the preseason buzz the team received. That showed in Colorado’s 28-10 loss at Nebraska a week ago.
Meanwhile, I also don’t think there’s been enough hype around Colorado State as a Mountain West program.
Do I think CSU is a top-10 G5 team? No. But I do think the Rams should be in the G5 Top 25. The Rams have playmakers on offense, and I think their defense shines at home in this clash.
UTSA vs. Texas Prediction
I predict Texas will win and cover the spread at -35.5. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
Just a week ago, UTSA gave up 49 points to Texas State. So it’s only logical that Texas, led by Heisman Trophy frontrunner Quinn Ewers, will be able to score at roughly the same clip that the Bobcats did.
I also don’t foresee UTSA scoring only 10 points in this game. The Roadrunners have more going for them on offense than we saw in their previous outing.
Maybe that doesn’t show up right away. Maybe they’re able to score a few points in garbage time. But I don’t think they’ll be shut out here.
Even if they are, I think Texas will expose the same weaknesses in UTSA’s defense that Texas State did in Week 2. I’m expecting the Longhorns will score early and often and that this contest will be decided before the fourth quarter.
Arkansas State vs. Michigan Prediction
I predict Michigan will win and cover the spread at -23.5. I also project the game will go Over 47.5 total points.
I know Michigan has proven to be far from the team it was a year ago when the Wolverines won the national championship. But I also think they’re better than some people think.
It’s early in the season, so Michigan could still be acclimating to how things are done with Sherrone Moore as the head coach. That would explain the slow start against Fresno State.
And I think Texas might be the best team in the country, so that would explain why Michigan couldn’t keep up.
Arkansas State, on the other hand, probably should’ve lost to Central Arkansas in what became a 34-31 win for the Red Wolves. Then they barely beat Tulsa at home in a 28-24 decision.
Michigan might be vulnerable, and maybe my prediction would be different if the Wolverines were facing a more complete G5 squad, but I think they are the better team in this matchup.
Utah vs. Utah State Prediction
I predict Utah will win and cover the spread at -20.5. I also project the game will go Under 46.5 total points.
With or without quarterback Cam Rising, who left last week’s game against Baylor with a hand injury, I think this Utes team is pretty loaded. Sure, Utah barely beat Baylor last week, but I think part of that had to do with the timing of Rising’s injury. With a week to prepare, the Utes should be ready for whatever offensive adjustments they have to make.
Meanwhile, I’m still not entirely sure what to make of this Utah State team. I know the Aggies have some star players like wide receiver Jalen Royals and defensive back Ike Larsen, but it still wasn’t that long ago that Utah State fired former head coach Blake Anderson going into this season. And losing like they did to USC doesn’t give me much hope for the Aggies in the immediate future.
Maybe USU sorts some things out and still has what it takes to compete for a Mountain West title. But I don’t see the Aggies keeping this week’s game close.
San Diego State vs. Cal Prediction
I predict Cal will win but San Diego State will cover the spread at +18.5. I also project the game will go Under 47.5 total points.
Neither of these offenses have been overwhelmingly consistent during the first two weeks of the season. SDSU did put up 45 points in Week 1, sure, but then the Aztecs were shut out at home against Oregon State.
Cal, on the other hand, scored 31 points to start the year against UC Davis and then put up 21 points against Auburn, which was just enough to win.
That said, both defenses have been pretty solid. Neither unit has given up more than 21 points in a collective four games, and both are allowing about 300 yards per contest.
Cal is the better team in my opinion, especially at home. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be an ugly, low-scoring affair.
