It’s been over a year since the Pac-12 as we knew it began to dismantle due to college football conference realignment, and it was unclear what the remaining two teams in the conference will do.
Oregon State and Washington State are in a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West for the 2024 season. But beyond that, OSU and WSU faced an uncertain future.
That was, until recently. Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Pac-12.
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Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State & San Diego State Join The Pac-12
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State have announced they are officially going to the Pac-12, beginning during the 2026 season.
Those moves will likely create a ripple effect for the rest of the FBS. The Pac-12 needs at least two more teams to be technically considered a conference, so others will likely become members of the new-look league. The Mountain West is losing some of its top teams and will probably begin searching for candidates to boost its numbers back up.
Pac-12 officials reportedly believe the league can reach a media deal worth more than the Mountain West’s currently, which could be a key reason for these moves.
The Pac-12 is no longer an autonomous league, meaning it had more influence in regards to NCAA decisions and received more money from the College Football Playoff. It’s uncertain if the Pac-12 could regain that status. It’s also unclear if the CFP would go back to six automatic qualifying spots for conference championship winners, as that number decreased to five following the Pac-12 dropping to two teams.
Pac-12 & Mountain West Don’t Extend Scheduling Arrangement Past 2024
The Mountain West and Pac-12 didn’t sign off on a deal to continue their scheduling agreement past this season. The deadline to do so was Sept. 1.
Oregon State and Washington State made a scheduling deal with the Mountain West for this year. Mountain West teams scheduled seven games against league opponents with another being against either WSU or OSU in 2024. Those two programs aren’t eligible for the Mountain West Championship.
For one year of this arrangement, the two schools are paying the Mountain West $14 million, according to Yahoo Sports.
Pac-12 2024 Conference Realignment News
Per The Mercury News, Oregon State and Washington State were reportedly in discussions with multiple FBS conferences, both Power Four and Group of Five, about plans beyond this season. It appeared a move to a few conferences was possible.
But those talks also included more scheduling agreements and non-traditional arrangements, similar to the one the “Pac-2” has with the Mountain West this season.
The Mountain West was an obvious potential home for OSU and WSU if those two teams decided to completely dissolve what’s left of the Pac-12. The AAC also considered adding those two teams, but geography was the major factor why some sort of deal was not done.
If the Pac-12 is to survive, it needs to have at least eight total teams to meet the NCAA’s minimum.
Which Mountain West/G5 Teams Were Clear Candidates To Join The Pac-12?
- San Diego State
- Fresno State
- Boise State
- Colorado State
- UNLV
- Air Force
- Memphis
- UTSA
The Pac-12 reportedly wouldn’t need or even want to reach double-digit members in the near future. And most of the schools that made the most sense for the Pac-12 are in the Mountain West.
The Mountain West teams on that list are obvious. They bring some level of name recognition, recent excellent play, and/or presence in bigger markets.
Memphis, UTSA, or teams from outside of the Mountain West are the wildcards. They are poised for a jump to a power conference, but would that make sense if the Pac-12 isn’t what it once was and if that conference was focused more on West Coast teams?
It’ll probably end up making sense for the Mountain West teams. Those programs in a league like that are reportedly believed to have a shot of making between $7 million and $10 million per team every year in a media rights deal, per a story by John Canzano, which would be more than the roughly $4 million per year the Mountain West is currently getting.
So the finances could fall into place. Thus, those teams will consistently have a good shot of making the College Football Playoff as things stand now.
Which Teams Could Be Expansion Targets For The Mountain West?
- New Mexico State
- UTEP
- North Texas
- Texas State
- Montana
- Montana State
- North Dakota State
- South Dakota State
- Idaho
- Sacramento State
- UC Davis
Now that the Pac-12 is loading up on some of the top teams from the Mountain West, the MWC is in a tough position.
As of right now, nine of the current 12 Mountain West teams would need to vote toward dissolving the league. And if the Pac-12 takes fewer than nine teams, as much as it would save the departing teams plenty of money, that doesn’t seem likely.
If the league only loses somewhere between four and seven teams, there’s still half of a conference left over.
The obvious first place to look for more teams would be elsewhere in the FBS. Most of the AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt would be too far away to consider, or those teams would prefer to stay in the leagues they are in. But some from Conference USA, specifically New Mexico State and UTEP, would be a good place to start because of geography. NMSU could be in a league that also features New Mexico.
And if the Mountain West pursued options in the southern part of the country like UTEP, maybe North Texas and Texas State would want to consider a similar move.
From there, the Mountain West would be wise to at least consider some of the nearby teams in the FCS. That would begin with adding arguably the top four teams in that subdivision, which happen to be not too far away – Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State. North Dakota and South Dakota could also be in that conversation if taking teams from those states led to legislative leaders requiring a package deal in those instances.
Idaho, a former FBS team, as well as Sacramento State and UC Davis would also make sense because of their locations.
Pac-12/Mountain West Poaching Penalties & Fees
The Mountain West will be owed at least roughly $43 million in poaching penalties for the four teams going to the Pac-12, and that number could grow if more MW programs get a Pac-12 invite. That’s also not including the $17 million each school has to pay for leaving the league.
Those poaching penalty numbers are part of the scheduling agreement those two leagues made this offseason.
If one Mountain West team had gone to the Pac-12, the Pac-12 would’ve had to pay $10 million. Two schools would have been $20.5 million, four is $43 million, five would be $55 million, and six would be $67.5 million.
That is a lot of money. However, the former Pac-12 teams that left the league paid a $65 million settlement to Washington State and Oregon State. The Pac-12 will also have $190 million in future revenue. So the cash is there.
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What Are The Mountain West Buyouts For Leaving The Conference?
Mountain West teams have to pay $17 million when any one of them leaves the conference with a one-year notice. Any notice less than that amount of time, then the fee would jump to $34 million.
How Much Is The Pac-12 Paying The Mountain West In 2024?
The 2024 Mountain West/Pac-12 arrangement is costing the Pac-12 about $14 million.
Old Pac-12 Teams Now In The Big 12
Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah went to the Big 12 for this season and beyond.
Old Pac-12 Teams Now In The Big Ten
USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington are in the Big Ten beginning this year.
Old Pac-12 Teams Now In The ACC
After those aforementioned eight teams went to other power conferences, Cal and Stanford decided to go to the ACC and are competing in that league this academic year.
