Both Tulane and James Madison made the College Football Playoff a year ago out of the Group of Six. But it’s even less likely that two G6 teams make the CFP this year.
In 2026, each of the Power Four conference champions is guaranteed a spot in the CFP, as well as the highest-ranked team in the G6. In the past, it was simply the top five highest-ranked league champs.
Unless two G6 teams are ranked in the top 12 (or even higher), we won’t see more than one G6 team in the field. Which makes it even tougher for these teams to make it.
With that in mind, could a new team emerge out of the G6 and make the CFP? Boise State is one of the frontrunners after getting there in 2024, and the Broncos are my pick as of now, but there’s a lot of other teams I like that could be in the mix.
So here are my top 10 G6 dark horses to make the CFP. I picked among teams who aren’t among the top two college football betting odds favorites to win their respective conferences.
A lot has to go right for any of these teams to make the field, but it would make for a fascinating discussion if any of them get in.
Top 10 CFP Sleepers In The G6
| Rank | Name |
| 1 | Memphis |
| 2 | Hawaii |
| 3 | USF |
| 4 | Texas State |
| 5 | Fresno State |
| 6 | Air Force |
| 7 | Delaware |
| 8 | Marshall |
| 9 | Toledo |
| 10 | Louisiana |
Top CFP Dark Horses, Ranked
10. Louisiana
There’s a surprisingly clear path for Louisiana – a team that was in the Sun Belt Championship just two years ago – to be in the CFP discussion.
With JMU going through a coaching change, maybe the Dukes take a step back in 2026. That leaves the conference wide open and gives a lot of teams the chance to emerge.
And other than USC, I’m not too scared of anyone on Louisiana’s schedule. The Ragin’ Cajuns play FCS Lamar, Charlotte and UAB in their non-conference schedule. And some of the better teams in their division like Troy, Arkansas State and South Alabama are home games for Louisiana.
If the Ragin’ Cajuns go 11-1 or 10-2 overall during the regular season, and if they go on the road and keep it even somewhat close at USC, then I could see them being considered for the CFP.
9. Toledo
Toledo may be an afterthought at the moment because head coach Jason Candle is now at UConn. But I am of the belief Mike Jacobs was a great hire for the Rockets and that he can help them stay competitive in the MAC.
The tough part: Toledo plays in the MAC and critics would surely point to strength of schedule. That’s why the Rockets will likely need to beat either Michigan State – a not-so-strong Power Four opponent – or defeat San Diego State at home.
Both of those games are going to be tough. But if the Rockets do pull off a victory in either of them, look out.
8. Marshall
I’m very high on Marshall this season. I think Tony Gibson is a good coach capable of getting Marshall back to a conference title game. I also loved what I saw from quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson when he became the team’s starter last season, and a full offseason as the leader of the program will only benefit him.
Marshall’s schedule may be challenging, though. A lot of the Thundering Herd’s games they would likely need to win in order to be in the CFP discussion – Penn State, JMU, Old Dominion and Georgia Southern specifically – are on the road.
Still, if Marshall is talented enough to make the CFP, it could end up winning most of those matchups.
7. Delaware
With head coach Ryan Carty and quarterback Nick Minicucci returning, I’m realizing I should be higher on the Blue Hens than I have been this offseason.
Delaware proved it belonged in the FBS with a 7-6 overall record right away in 2025, and I think the Blue Hens are a contender in Conference USA in 2026.
But the Blue Hens probably need to win 11 games at minimum in the regular season to make it to the CFP. There’s going to be some strong cases in the G6, and Delaware will need to leave little doubt if the Blue Hens want to be picked for the CFP out of CUSA.
Which means a win at Vanderbilt on Sept. 12 would really go a long way in this discussion. Will it happen? Doubtful. But is it possible? We’ll have to find out.
6. Air Force
Everyone is talking about North Dakota State moving up, New Mexico and Hawaii emerging, and UNLV finally having a shot to become the flagship program in the Mountain West. I don’t think enough people are talking about this Air Force squad.
Troy Calhoun is one of the best coaches in the G6, and Liam Szarka could help the Falcons have a pretty explosive offense as their quarterback.
They don’t have a P4 game on their schedule, though they do play some solid G6 schools in Army and Navy (obviously) as well as UConn. If the Falcons make that jump and win 10 games during the regular season en route to a Mountain West title, they would have to be in the discussion.
5. Fresno State
If Boise State doesn’t put it together and become that clear CFP favorite out of the Pac-12, I could legitimately see any other team in the conference contending for the league title. Maybe Bronco Mendenhall at Utah State or Jim Mora at Colorado State help turn things around. Maybe Oregon State and Washington State bounce back and show why they were in a power conference just a couple years ago.
I think winning the Pac-12 and making it to the CFP is going to be tough because a lot of these teams are going to be competitive. So putting together a 10-win regular season may not happen for any of these squads. But if Fresno State can play a tough brand of football with Matt Entz at head coach and grind out wins – and maybe even keep things competitive with USC – then watch out.
4. Texas State
Even if Texas State doesn’t win a bunch of games in the Pac-12, I think the Bobcats’ offense will be exciting. Led by quarterback Brad Jackson, wide receiver Beau Sparks, and head coach GJ Kinne, Texas State will be capable of putting up a lot of points.
Still, the Bobcats are fourth in Pac-12 championship betting odds. They may not have made a conference title game in the Sun Belt during the Kinne era, but I think they can get there this year if Boise State doesn’t live up to its potential.
3. USF
A lot of people assume South Florida will just continue to be successful with Alex Golesh going to Auburn and Brian Hartline taking over. But the truth is, we don’t know how Hartline will handle head coaching duties. Also remember that the Bulls struggled quite a bit before Golesh came in and turned things around.
Still, there’s reason to be optimistic about USF’s future. That includes the fact that the Bulls had the No. 1-ranked transfer class in the American.
If all those new players can come in and coalesce, USF could be in the mix for an American Conference title.
2. Hawaii
I love Hawaii’s outlook this season. With Micah Alejado back at quarterback, the Rainbow Warriors could be even better in 2026 after going 9-4 a season ago.
They also have two winnable Power Four games on their schedule at Stanford and Arizona State. Beating even one of those teams would surely build a strong case in the eyes of the CFP committee.
Hawaii also gets to play North Dakota State, UNLV and New Mexico – three of the top contenders to win the Mountain West – all at home. The Rainbow Warriors could very well put it all together and make the CFP this season.
1. Memphis
Memphis almost shouldn’t be a dark horse for the CFP because it’s consistently been in the playoff discussion the past couple years. But the Tigers are only fifth in BetMGM’s betting odds to win the American, so I decided to include them here.
The program is in a great position to win a conference title, and new head coach Charles Huff has already proven he can lead a team to championship after doing so in the Sun Belt at Marshall.
The one drawback for me is the fact that Memphis doesn’t have a P4 team on its schedule. Regardless if you think this should be the case, the CFP committee will heavily weigh P4 wins when comparing resumes. Look no further than last year when Tulane was ranked higher than JMU.
But the Tigers have a strong non-conference slate with games at UNLV and Boise State. Winning on the road in either of those matchups could be tough – and it could end up being head-to-head matchups with two conference champs also in the CFP mix. But if the Tigers win either of those games and end up winning the American, they would absolutely be considered for a CFP berth.
