It’s hard enough to try and gauge how motivated and how well teams will play in a bowl game, especially when key players opt out or enter the transfer portal.
It’s even harder to get an idea of what to expect from a program when its head coach moves on prior to a bowl game.
That’s the case for the Birmingham Bowl.
Both Duke and Troy will be without their former head coaches on Saturday with Jon Sumrall leaving Troy for fellow Group of Five member Tulane and Mike Elko heading to Texas A&M. Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato will be the interim coach for the Trojans, while Trooper Taylor, the Blue Devils’ running backs coach, will have the same role on the opposing sideline.
It’ll be interesting to see which coach will do a better job rallying their squads. College football betting odds currently have the Trojans as 7.5-point favorites, but it’s not only because of the departure of Elko.
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Duke star QB Riley Leonard hit the portal and committed to Notre Dame last week. The Blue Devils will also be without running back Jordan Waters, who has recently committed to North Carolina State. Waters led the team with 753 yards and 12 TDs this season.
There will be some defensive production missing for both teams, as well. Linebacker Dorian Mausi and defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles won’t be suiting up for Duke. Mausi was third on the roster with 61 total tackles and added two pass breakups and an interception. Peebles was stout in the middle and finished with 40 tackles and led the team with four sacks.
The biggest hit the Trojans took is that they will be without linebacker and leading tackler Jayden McDonald, who finished the season with 75 tackles and 9.5 TFLs. McDonald was a critical piece for one of — if not the — best defenses in the Sun Belt.
With Duke also boasting a solid defense, this game looks like it should be a defensive battle. The over/under is at a mere 44.5 points.
Troy surrenders 17.2 points and 306 total yards per game, while the Blue Devils give up 19.8 PPG and 354 YPG.
Will they be able to stop Kimani Vidal, though?
The Troy running back was named the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year and tabbed a third-team AP All-American. Vidal led the league with 121.7 YPG, and his 14 rushing TDs ranked second. He ran for 233 yards and five TDs in the Sun Belt title game to help Troy grab a 49-23 win over App State.
The Blue Devils allow 146 YPG on the ground, which is fairly average. It will certainly miss Maui and Peebles here in an effort to stop the run and win its fifth consecutive bowl game.
The Trojans are seeking their sixth straight bowl win, and are facing their first postseason Power Five opponent.
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Troy vs. Duke Prediction
Duke lost four of its final six games and isn’t the same team it was at the midway point of the season when it was ranked. Outside of a Week 1 win over Clemson, the Blue Devils struggled against winning teams the entire season.
I like Troy to continue its bowl game winning streak here with a low-scoring victory and cover the spread while doing so. The Trojans also only have to travel 129 miles.
Even with the departure of Sumrall, Troy doesn’t strike me as a program that will just seemingly show up to a bowl game and not play meaningful football like some teams do. Gasparato will have the Trojans ready to play.
