How Did G5 Preseason Favorites Fare In 2023?

There’s so much unknown at the start of each college football season. 

Still, there are plenty of predictions and polls that spew from every direction. Most of the time, these predictions and polls are nearly spot on. But occasionally, there’s a lot of chaos that disrupts them. 

The 2023 season didn’t include much of that chaos among the Group of Five leagues, and many of the preseason favorites went on to play in their respective conference’s title game. Here’s a look at how things unfolded for each of those preseason favorites and an early forecast for them ahead of the 2024 campaign:

Tulane

College football betting odds had the Green Wave at +210 to win the AAC before the season, and it looked like it was on its way to its second consecutive New Year’s Six bowl after running through the regular season with hardly any hiccups. It went undefeated in AAC play until meeting SMU in the conference championship, where the Mustangs prevailed 26-14.

Tulane earned its spot as the preseason favorite coming off arguably one of the best seasons in program history with coach Willie Fritz and QB Michael Pratt leading the way. Now, with those two gone and Jon Sumrall as the new coach, we’ll see if oddsmakers still think the Green Wave are the team to beat.

WKU

The Hilltoppers were the very short preseason favorite to win CUSA at +135, but they only managed to finish fourth in the worst G5 league in the country. WKU didn’t play great against its toughest opponents, and that included losses to league foes Jacksonville State, New Mexico State, and Liberty. 

WKU loses a lot of production to the NFL Draft and graduation, but the Hilltoppers should still be on the path to again compete for their first conference title since 2016 with sixth-year coach Tyson Helton and Texas State transfer TJ Finley guiding the way.

Toledo

Much like Tulane, the Rockets cruised through conference play before losing their first MAC game to Miami (OH) in the title game and ending an 11-game win streak. The RedHawks avenged a 21-17 Week 8 loss to Toledo, which was their only conference loss of the year.

At +175, Toledo was the favorite to win its second consecutive MAC championship and fifth in school history. Even with the Rockets losing Dequan Finn (Baylor) and Peny Boone (Louisville) to Power Five schools, they should remain a favorite to win the league with reigning MAC Coach of the Year Jason Candle at the helm.

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Boise State

Was there ever a doubt? Well, sort of. It didn’t look likely that the Broncos were going to find their way back to the Mountain West championship after firing coach Andy Avalos following a Week 9 loss to Fresno State. 

Boise opened the year as a 2/1 favorite to win the conference and only fell to +230 after starting the year 2-3. Their odds got a little bit longer after dropping three league games but eventually found themselves as a three-point favorite in the MW championship. The Broncos went on to win their third MW crown in seven years. 

Thirty-five-year-old Spencer Danielson took the interim role after Avalos was let go and was named the head coach the day after the MW championship. Albeit in a short span, he proved he can keep Boise competitive.

Troy

The Trojans dropped their first Sun Belt contest of the year in a 16-14 battle against James Madison but didn’t lose again. At +300, Troy was just a slim favorite over South Alabama (+325) to win the conference. It was the only preseason favorite to claim that conference title besides Boise State.

After losing to JMU, Troy had no issues with any of its other Sun Belt opponents, outscoring them a combined 284-111 — including a decisive 49-23 win over Appalachian State in the SB championship.

Former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parker replaced Jon Sumrall as head coach, meaning there will be a new era of Troy football starting in 2024. It won’t be long before we see where this Trojans team lands on the next versions of preseason predictions and polls.