Group of Five Underdog of the Week: Wyoming +7 at Arizona State

I stayed away from selecting a Group of Five Underdog of the Week for Week 0.

There were only two options to choose from, and I didn’t have a ton of faith in either. But New Mexico and Nevada proved me wrong and both covered the spread in what were a pair of surprising efforts from the Mountain West squads. Both teams were in great position to win but squandered the game away late. College football betting odds had both squads as double-digit underdogs.

While I didn’t put my trust in a Mountain West school last week, I will this week.

Wyoming (Spread +7, Moneyline +225) at Arizona State

This seems like a game the Cowboys can go on the road and win. 

They will be traveling to play in the triple-digit Tempe heat, but the night time kickoff will hopefully make the weather less of an impact. The Sun Devils are coming off a 3-9 campaign and expectations aren’t much higher this year. Their win total Over/Under is at just 4.5 games. 

ASU will be starting a redshirt freshman in Sam Leavitt at quarterback who is a transfer from Michigan State and attempted just 23 passes last season. Leavitt will be met with arguably the best defensive line in the MW and will be behind an offensive line that doesn’t have much experience playing together. I expect the Cowboys’ defensive line to wreak some havoc. 

Compared to Wyoming, the Sun Devils’ defensive line is unproven and could struggle to stop the Cowboys’ rushing attack. The Cowboys will be without top running back Harrison Waylee, who recently had knee surgery, but their RB room is deep and reliable. 

UW also has a first-year head coach in Jay Sawvel and a new starter at QB in Evan Svoboda, but both guys aren’t new to the program and the hiccups should be limited. Svoboda started against Texas last year and had the Cowboys tied at 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns ultimately pulled away.

ASU has lost its last five non-conference games, and Wyoming has covered the spread in six of its last eight meetings against non-conference FBS teams. UW tends to play well against Power Four programs, and its physicality is a big reason why. ASU is dealing with injuries on both lines, and I think UW will win in the trenches, giving the Cowboys a chance to start the season 1-0.

Honorable Mentions

Sam Houston (+10, +310) At Rice

The Bearkats started 0-8 last year in their inaugural FBS season before finally winning their first game when they defeated Kennesaw State 24-21. They finished the year winning three or their last four. I like Sam Houston to carry that momentum over into this season.

This will only be a 73-mile road trip for the Bearkats as they look to beat Rice for the first time since 1939. They are 1-16 against the Owls. SHSU only lost by three or more scores once last season and went 4-2 against the spread as an underdog on the road. I can see them keeping it within two scores and covering the spread.

Miami (Ohio) (+3.5, +135) At Northwestern

I think the RedHawks might just be the better team here. Northwestern was one of the biggest surprises in college football last year, but I don’t anticipate its magic to continue into 2024.

Miami is 7-3 all-time against Northwestern including a 17-14 win in 2022. The Wildcats are 1-6 against the spread as a home favorite in the last three years and don’t exactly have a home field advantage here. They’ll be playing in their temporary stadium that was recently built on the shore of Lake Michigan and holds just 15,000 people. 

Both defenses are solid, and this should be a low-scoring affair — the Over/Under is at 39.5 — which bodes well for the underdog.

FAU (+13.5, +425) At Michigan State

Expectations are low for the Spartans this season while FAU is expected to take a step forward following last year’s 4-8 campaign. Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith was brought in to put together a program that needs rebuilding, and I imagine the Spartans come out with more focus on learning about themselves as they prepare for Big Ten play while the Owls have a chip on their shoulder following last year’s underwhelming season. 

FAU nearly defeated the last two Big Ten teams it played, falling to Illinois 23-17 last year and losing to Purdue 28-26 in 2022. The Owls were 16-point underdogs in both games.