For the past decade, San Diego State has been one of the premier teams in the Mountain West and even one of the most respected Group of Five programs.
The Aztecs had five double-digit win seasons from 2015-2021 and won a pair of Mountain West titles. After last year’s lowly 4-8 campaign which resulted in the retirement of Brady Hoke, SDSU’s win total Over/Under is set at 5.5 games in Sean Lewis’ first season. The Over is at +110 and the Under is at -135.
I don’t expect San Diego State to get back to flirting with double-digit wins this season, but can SDSU flirt with a bowl bid?
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How Many Games Will San Diego State Win In 2024?
The Aztecs have one of the toughest schedules in the conference. Not only do they face both Washington State and Oregon State, but they also play Cal and the anticipated top three MW teams.
Week 1 should be a win over Texas A&M-Commerce and the next likely opportunity for a victory won’t come until Week 5 when SDSU visits Central Michigan. I’m not guaranteeing a win here, and this is more or less a 50/50 game, but Lewis is familiar with facing MAC opponents from his Kent State days so that could play in the Aztecs’ favor in this very long road trip.
SDSU hosts Hawaii the following week, and this can’t be chalked up as a W either. I assume the Aztecs will be favored here, but not by much, and the Rainbow Warriors will come into this one ready off a strong start to the season and a bye.
The Aztecs host New Mexico and visit Utah State in two of their final four games of the season. These are the best chances they will have at a win in their final seven games. They should handle the Lobos easily but will have to grind out a win in Logan in the second-to-last game of the season. This contest is a long way away, so the expectations for this outing are very likely to be different than they are now.
How Many Games Will San Diego State Lose In 2024?
There’s a real chance the Aztecs start the season 1-6. There’s also a real chance that they start the season 4-2. I think it will be somewhere in the middle and the Aztecs will drop at least three of their first six games, losing to Oregon State and Cal in Weeks 2 and 3 before falling during a trip to Wyoming in Week 7.
I also can’t picture the Aztecs pulling the upset over Washington State, Boise State, UNLV, or Air Force, especially since the Boise State and UNLV contests are on the road. The back half of the schedule will be a brutal one for the Aztecs.
San Diego State Football Bet Prediction
I don’t see a way where the Aztecs reach six wins, get to a bowl game, and go Over 5.5 wins. Their schedule is just too difficult and they have a first-year head coach and a true freshman in Danny O’Neil starting at quarterback, who will face some quality defenses this year.
Even getting to five wins will be tough for the Aztecs. Under 5.5 wins is the play here.
