San Diego State sits alone atop the Mountain West standings after a hard-fought win over Boise State last week, but the rest of the field in the race to crown the 2025 conference champion isn’t quite as clear cut.
Six teams are still alive in the hunt for the title with two weeks left in the regular season. Two of them will meet at Allegiant Stadium when UNLV (8-2, 4-2 MWC) hosts Hawaii (7-3, 4-2) on Friday night. Fresno State, New Mexico, and Boise State are also still in the race with just two conference losses.
San Diego State (8-2, 5-1) is once again the favorite to win the Mountain West title on BetMGM. Boise State was a slight favorite before its 17-7 loss last week.
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UNLV head coach Dan Mullen said Monday that there aren’t many cupcake games in the Mountain West.
“It just shows you how deep and talented, from top to bottom, this league is,” Mullen told reporters during his weekly press conference. “There are a lot of leagues that are top heavy. They’ve got some great teams at the top, but they get a lot of cupcake games in there. If you don’t bring it every week (in the Mountain West), you can be on the lopsided end of a bad loss.”
UNLV survived what would have been a surprising loss to Utah State last week. The Rebels kicked a field goal to tie the game with 2:18 left and got some help from Aggies kicker Tanner Rinker, who missed a field goal as time expired and another in the first round of overtime.
Rinker made a field goal in the second overtime, but UNLV won it with a direct snap to reserve wide receiver Kayden McGee, who scored a 25-yard touchdown on the opening play of the possession.
This week, the Rebels face one of the top passing attacks in the Mountain West. Hawaii ranks No. 2 in the conference with 302.4 passing yards a game. Only San Jose State is putting up more with 313.8.
Hawaii is led by redshirt freshman quarterback Micah Alejado, who has thrown at least three touchdown passes in five straight games, including the Rainbow Warriors’ 38-7 win over San Diego State on Nov. 8. The Honolulu native, who played in high school at national powerhouse Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas, has racked up 2,380 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in his first full season as Hawaii’s starter.
“He is very accurate, understands their system, gets rid of the ball quickly, and can make a lot of the throws,” Mullen said.
Alejado’s top targets have been sophomore wide receiver Jackson Harris (42 catches for 731 yards and 10 TDs in 2025) and junior receiver Pofele Ashlock (58 receptions for 633 and six TDs). Harris has posted more than 100 receiving yards in five straight games and caught at least two touchdowns in four of Hawaii’s past five contests. He hauled in three touchdowns against the Aztecs.
UNLV’s offense could get a boost this week after leading rusher Jai’Den Thomas didn’t play last week. Mullen said Monday that he was a late scratch because of several lingering injuries, but he expects Thomas to play on Friday. He leads the Rebels with 780 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.
Hawaii vs. UNLV Betting Odds
UNLV is a three-point college football betting odds favorite on BetMGM as of this writing, and the Over/Under is 64.5 points. The moneyline is at -145 for UNLV and +120 for Hawaii.
Hawaii leads the all-time series 19-15, but UNLV has won the past two meetings, including a 29-27 win in Honolulu last season.
UNLV is 16-4 overall and 8-12 against the spread in its past 20 regular season games as the favorite at home. Hawaii is 5-15 overall and 10-10 ATS in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog on the road.
Hawaii vs. UNLV On TV
The Mountain West game featuring UNLV and Hawaii at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, will be televised on FS1.
Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET.
Hawaii vs. UNLV Prediction
I predict Hawaii wins 38-34, and I predict the game goes Over 64.5 points.
UNLV has done a decent job of rushing the passer and creating turnovers this season, and the Rebels very well could create a couple of game-changing turnovers on Friday. That is a huge part of what makes this game a toss-up, in my opinion.
The problem is the Rebels’ defense is giving up yards in chunks, and they’re facing a passing attack that can put points on the board in a hurry. UNLV ranks No. 10 in the 12-team Mountain West in passing defense (264.1 yards per game), and the Rebels have given up the second-most passing touchdowns in the conference with 19. Only Utah State has given up more with 20. Hawaii is in the top half of the league in just about every defensive category, and the Rainbow Warriors are tied with New Mexico with a conference-leading 25 sacks.
Both offenses will put points on the board, I believe, but Hawaii’s defense will make enough momentum-swinging plays to win the game.
