This weekend’s matchup between New Mexico State and Jacksonville State should be a lot of fun.
You know what would make it even more exciting? If they were playing for a spot in the CUSA championship.
Yes, if it weren’t for the NCAA’s rules keeping the Gamecocks from being postseason eligible, the winner of this game would be facing Liberty in the conference title game. Instead, the Aggies clinched their berth following a win over Western Kentucky on Nov. 11. Both teams are 6-1 in league play.
The conference preseason media poll had the Aggies finishing fifth and Jax State finishing seventh. Even in what is probably the worst Group of Five conference, it still can’t be denied how big of a come-up this season was for both of these teams.
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It took some unexpected play to get to where they’re at.
For the Aggies, they’re currently on a seven-game winning streak. This started back in Week 5 against FIU. Since then, NMSU has defeated Sam Houston, UTEP, LA Tech, MTSU, WKU, and most recently and notably, Auburn.
None of these are truly easy wins. Even SHSU has been competitive all season.
One thing is for sure, though, Jerry Kill has proven he can make adjustments and get his team playing well down the stretch. Last year, the Aggies won five of their final six games and defeated Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl.
While the Aggies’ season has been somewhat of a shock, Jax State has been one of the biggest surprises in the country.
College football betting odds had the Gamecocks’ win total at just 4.5. They only needed seven games to hit the over. Within that stretch was a win over WKU that let people know Jax State was for real.
Much like Kill, Gamecocks coach Rich Rodriguez is in his second season at the helm and both teams entered a new era this season. And again like Kill, Rodriguez took his team much further than people thought they would go this year.
These squads have a lot in common and are even more similar on paper.
Behind Liberty, the Gamecocks are second in CUSA in scoring offense at 31 PPG while the Aggies are third (28.9). These are also the top two scoring defenses in the league with NMSU allowing 19.9 PPG and Jax State allowing 20.4.
They also both lean heavily on the run and average the second and third most yards on the ground and are the bottom two teams in passing offense. The Aggies rushed for 213 yards against an SEC defense last week while the Gamecocks rushed for a CUSA record 522 in their dominant win over LA Tech:
I think it’s safe to say this game will be won in the trenches.
With the emergence of these two teams, it has garnered some much-needed attention to CUSA. And with Liberty very much in the mix for the New Year’s Six bowl bid, the league is getting even more exposure.
The seamless transition for Jax State from the FCS is also worth noting, especially since they aren’t eligible for the postseason. They’re not the first team to have this much success during their first year in the FBS.
Maybe it’s time to allow future transitional teams to be rewarded for playing so well and putting in the time and effort to be successful.
Jacksonville State-New Mexico State Prediction
I never thought I’d be looking forward to watching New Mexico State and Jax State square off on Thanksgiving weekend, but here we are.
It’s tough for me to not back the red-hot Aggies, but I think that this is a letdown spot after a huge win over Auburn. They also know that they still have two more games to play unlike the Gamecocks, who might be playing their final game of the season on Saturday — unless, of course, not enough teams become bowl eligible and they’re able to secure a bowl bid.
They can’t rely on that, though.
The line opened at NMSU -2.5 and is now at Jax State -2.5. I’ll roll with Jax State to cap their outstanding regular season with a win by three and cover the spread.
