Troy won three conference games on the road last season to help it reach the Sun Belt Championship. If a repeat trip is to happen, the Trojans will almost certainly need to win at least three league games on the road once again.
The Trojans also have a pair of non-conference road games against an SEC and a Pac-12 squad to open the season. College football betting odds have Troy’s win total at Over/Under 6.5 wins with the Over at -155 and the Under at +120.
Here are game-by-game predictions for Troy’s 2026 campaign:
vs. Sam Houston
Prediction: Win
Last year was a down year for the Bearkats in Phil Longo’s first season. With a lot of newcomers, I think the Bearkats will still be figuring a lot of things out this early in the year.
vs. Alabama State
Prediction: Win
This will already be Alabama State’s third game of the season so they might be more up to speed than the Trojans. Still, I don’t see the Hornets making the short drive from Montgomery to Troy and getting an upset.
at Missouri
Prediction: Loss
The last time Troy beat a Power Five program in the regular season was in 2018 when it knocked off Nebraska on the road. Can it defeat an SEC school this year? I don’t think so.
at Utah State
Prediction: Loss
The second of two tough road games, the Trojans will have to travel nearly 2,000 miles for this matchup. This also feels like a must-win game for the Aggies, who face Washington and Utah the two weeks prior and visit Boise State the following week. Troy will compete, but I think the Aggies will be trying to avoid three early losses and will be a little more desperate for a win.
vs. Southern Miss
Prediction: Win
With the most roster turnover in the league and a first-year coach in Blake Anderson, it might take USM longer than normal to find its footing. Then again, it might not. This isn’t Anderson’s first rodeo. Still, I think Troy’s defense will give a new-look offense some issues.
at Louisiana
Prediction: Win
Unlike USM, the Ragin’ Cajuns will have a lot of returners this year and didn’t have a lot of action in the transfer portal. They took the same approach last year and finished 6-6. I expect this season to be close to the same, but I don’t think this is one of those wins.
vs. ULM
Prediction: Win
It’ll be important for the Trojans to not get caught looking ahead to next week’s matchup, which comes on a Thursday. I don’t think they will.
at James Madison
Prediction: Loss
A rematch of last year’s Sun Belt title game, Troy hung around for much of the contest. I think the Trojans have the potential and the grit to keep this one close as well, but the Dukes will grind out a win during what I assume will be a mid-week nationally-televised game.
vs. Louisiana Tech
Prediction: Win
This will be the second of back-to-back road games for the Bulldogs. If LA Tech QB Blake Baker is as effective as he was last year, then its offense should be good. I think the Trojans are able to keep him at bay.
at South Alabama
Prediction: Win
It’s not easy to go on the road and win a rivalry game no matter who’s on the other side. But I don’t know what to expect from what will be a mostly rebuilt Jaguars squad, so, as of now, I’m more comfortable picking the Trojans here.
vs. Georgia Southern
Prediction: Win
I think Troy’s only true test to this point in the season was the trip to JMU a month ago. I expect this to be another test against a stout defense. How Troy QB Goose Crowder is playing at this point in the season I think will determine if the Trojans get this one done or not.
at Arkansas State
Prediction: Loss
Off a big win over Georgia Southern with only one conference loss this late in the season, the Trojans would be riding high. I think it comes crashing down in Jonesboro against an Arkansas State team off a mini-bye and who I think will be fighting for bowl-eligibility.
Troy Win Total Prediction
I predict Troy will go Over 6.5 wins.
The Trojans dealt with a ton of injuries and had many different guys earn starts last year. Regardless, head coach Gerad Parker and his group still found different ways to grind out eight wins. With more consistency and some key returners, I expect them to hover around eight wins once again.
