James Madison is 6-1, its only loss being at Louisville, and is regarded as one of the top programs in the Group of Five this season. But it wasn’t always smooth for the Dukes, thanks in large part because of their offense.
JMU played at Georgia State and Louisiana in back-to-back games, both contests the Dukes were expected to win decisively. But they won by a combined margin of 17 points as their offense scored a total of 38.
Some wondered how legitimate the Dukes were, especially going into their matchup with Old Dominion, which had a strong showing in the first half of the season that included a win over Virginia Tech.
But JMU went ahead and scored 42 unanswered points in a 63-27 triumph over the Monarchs. And after all of his inconsistencies, Alonza Barnett III threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 153 yards and four TDs.
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JMU is now fifth in the HERO Sports Group of Five Top 25 Media Poll with a perfect 4-0 Sun Belt record. But will the Dukes keep this momentum on the road against another strong conference program?
Texas State was expected to be a conference championship contender, and the Bobcats looked the part when they started off with a blowout win over Eastern Michigan and went on the road to beat rival UTSA.
But Texas State (3-4, 0-3) has lost its last three games, albeit by a total of 11 points. So the Bobcats will be desperate to rebound here and get back on track toward bowl-eligibility.
JMU vs. Texas State Betting Odds
Texas State is a +6.5 college football betting odds underdog against JMU, with the Over/Under being 55.5 as of this writing. The moneyline for JMU is -250, while it’s +200 for Texas State.
JMU vs. Texas State On TV
The matchup between JMU and Texas State will be televised on ESPN2.
The game will kick off at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 28. The contest is taking place at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas.
JMU vs. Texas State Prediction
I predict JMU will win but Texas State will cover the 6.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 55.5 total points.
Both JMU and Texas State have played in plenty of close games recently. And I don’t expect this one to be much different.
This will be a clash between the top defense in the Sun Belt – and by some metrics, in the country – against the best offense in the league.
JMU is first in the Sun Belt and fourth in the FBS in total defense, as the Dukes allow 237 yards per game. JMU is also first in the conference in scoring defense with 15.6 points per game allowed, which is about nine points fewer than anyone else.
Texas State, meanwhile, leads the Sun Belt with 36.1 points and 487.9 yards per game. So I fully expect the Bobcats to give the Dukes issues, and they may even score more points than anyone else has against JMU so far.
But I’m picking JMU to win because of the other side of the ball. The Dukes’ strength is their defense, but they’re also third in the Sun Belt with 432.3 YPG gained on offense and are fourth with 32.3 PPG scored.
And that production has been driven by their rushing attack. They’re first in the Sun Belt with 243.7 YPG on the ground and are second with 5.3 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Texas State is 11th in the Sun Belt in scoring defense (31.3 PPG allowed) and ninth in total defense (404.9 YPG allowed).
I think Texas State’s offense has enough firepower to keep up with the Dukes, but I ultimately think JMU will lean on its running game to ultimately secure a road victory.
