It’s hard to imagine Western Michigan currently has the third-best betting odds to win the MAC after last year’s lowly season.
It helps that the league is somewhat wide open this year and crazy things happen during MACtion, especially compared to other Group of Five conferences. While Toledo was a pretty short favorite at +175 to win the league last season, this year’s odds feature five teams with odds of +650 or shorter. Miami (Ohio) is the favorite at +225, Toledo is at +325, Western Michigan is at +550, Bowling Green is at +600, and Northern Illinois is at +650.
Ohio (+1300) and Central Michigan (+1400) are next, followed by Buffalo and Eastern Michigan at +3500. Ball State (+4000), Akron (+6000), and Kent State (+15000) close out the odds. It is the second season in a row Kent State is a +15000 long shot.
Not only is it a huge swing from last year for WMU, but it’s also a huge change in expectations for BGSU. Both programs were 50/1 to win the conference entering the 2023 campaign. Miami won last year’s MAC title as the fourth favorite at +650.
Western Michigan Provides Best Value To Win MAC Championship
The MAC did something that has become the norm for FBS conferences and that is to eliminate divisions. This means the teams with the two best conference records will meet in the league title game.
Given the favorable schedule the Broncos were dealt this season, there’s a real chance they could lose just one or two league games. As of right now, it looks like WMU’s most difficult contest will be against Bowling Green in Week 12. The previous meeting against Northern Illinois will also be a tough test, but I anticipate BGSU to be a little better than NIU this season. Plus, the Broncos visit the Falcons and get the Huskies at home.
The Broncos also have road games at Ball State, Buffalo, and Central Michigan. Visiting the Chippewas in a rivalry matchup won’t be easy, but the away team is 8-3 in these games and WMU has won five of the last six.
But most importantly, the Broncos don’t face Toledo or Miami this season. They also don’t play Ohio, although I think they’re the better team this season.
I don’t think it’s too far-fetched to say that WMU will be the favorite in at least six of its eight conference meetings and that they’ll also win at least six of those games. Making it to the MAC Championship could easily come down to that two-week stretch against BGSU and NIU.
If the Broncos were to make it to the league title game, anything could happen. In five of the last six MAC Championships, the underdog has won. The games are also played at a neutral site at Ford Field, unlike most other conference championships.
While I’m not predicting WMU to win the MAC, I do think the Broncos provide the best value from a betting standpoint. The Broncos don’t only have a favorable schedule, but they also have a solid group and the reigning MAC Freshman of the Year in Jalen Buckley, who should continue to prove he’s an excellent playmaker.
Other Things Of Note From MAC Championship Odds
Just two years ago, Kent State was a 9/1 favorite to win the MAC while BGSU was 100/1. How much of a difference just a few seasons can make.
After sitting at 5/1 entering 2023, EMU is back to being a long shot and is now +3500 to win the MAC. The Eagles were +1600 in 2022.
