Preseason expectations for some teams are on the spot.
Other times, they’re way off.
It can be difficult to know what to really expect from a program entering the season, especially in this era of college football that involves so many moving parts.
There are plenty of surprises and disappointments at the end of each year. Here, we’ll look at five of the most overachieving Group of Five teams of 2023.
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Jax State
Entering its first season as an FBS and CUSA member, it was anticipated the Gamecocks would just get accustomed to the new landscape.
They had other plans.
A hot start saw Jax State open the season 5-1 before losing to Liberty. College football betting odds had its win total at 4.5 games, a number they surpassed midway through the season. The Gamecocks went on to finish 9-4 overall and 6-2 in league play.
The defensive unit was solid all season and led CUSA by allowing just 21 PPG. It allowed more than 30 points only three times and former defensive coordinator Zac Alley earned himself a job at Oklahoma in the same role.
Jax State solidified its big year with a win over Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl.
New Mexico State
The Aggies won as many games as they had the previous three seasons combined while an independent program. At 10-5, it was the first time NMSU finished with double-digit wins since 1960.
Nobody thought Jerry Kill’s squad would reach a bowl game, let alone the CUSA championship. Not to mention beating Auburn along the way.
The Aggies ultimately fell to Liberty in the CUSA title game before losing to Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. The season didn’t end how they would’ve liked, but you can’t disregard the pleasant surprise the Aggies were.
Texas State
The preseason coaches poll had the Bobcats finishing 11th in the 14-team Sun Belt. They went on to finish 8-5 and 4-4 in league play, good enough for fourth in the top G5 conference in the country.
Led by QB TJ Finley, this high-powered attack made the Bobcats a scary team. Texas State led the conference with 36 points and 458 total YPG. The Bobcats knocked off Baylor to start the season and defeated Rice in the First Responder Bowl to cap the year.
In his first season at the helm, G.J. Kinne guided the Bobcats to their first-ever bowl game and only second winning season in the program’s short 12-year history. As long as Kinne is still the coach, the Bobcats could very well continue to be relevant.
USF
Another first-year coach on the list, Alex Golesh brought some much-needed life into the program which it hasn’t seen since the late 2010s.
There weren’t necessarily any prominent wins on USF’s schedule this year, but it still managed to eclipse its preseason win total by three games. Not many thought the Bulls would finish fifth in the AAC and that Byrum Brown would emerge as one of the top dual-threat QBs in the country:
Brown will be back next season. The Bulls can make some noise again in 2024 and start the season how they ended it — with a 45-0 win over Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. Look out.
UNLV
The Mountain West preseason media poll had the Rebels finishing ninth. There wasn’t much confidence in this team … except for the one person that gave UNLV a first-place vote.
The Rebels cruised to a 6-1 start with its only loss in that span coming at Michigan. Things spiraled late in the season, however, ending with three consecutive losses. Still, the Rebels made it to the MW championship game and were +1600 to do so before the season.
Freshman QB Jayden Maiava came out of nowhere and was a big reason why UNLV had its first winning season since 2013. Maiava has since committed to USC after initially committing to Georgia. He played in UNLV’s loss to Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Despite the loss of the QB, head coach Barry Odom will be back for his second season and will be looking to prove the Rebels aren’t going anywhere.
