Going back and looking at FCS preseason rankings is always a joy.
Many things don’t age well, no matter how well thought out and researched they were. The unpredictability of sports, especially at the college level, is what makes it fun, though.
Preseason voters nailed the No. 1 slot this year with eventual national champions South Dakota State, a rather easy pick. And some voters nailed their preseason darling picks like Furman and Idaho.
There were, of course, many whiffs. Here are the biggest team surprises and disappointments of the 2023 season, taking into account their preseason rankings.
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Biggest Surprises
South Dakota
USD finished 2022 with a 3-8 record, including a 58-14 home loss to Northern Iowa in the regular-season finale, which prompted questions on whether the coaching staff would/should return. Bob Nielson did return as head coach, and he oversaw a tremendous turnaround in 2023.
The Coyotes finished the regular season 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with four ranked wins (three over Top 10 teams) to earn the No. 3 seed in the FCS playoffs. They beat Sac State 34-24 in the second round before losing 45-17 to North Dakota State in the quarterfinals.
The loss was a dud to end the season. But going from 3-8 to 10-3 and finishing No. 4 in the final media poll was a historic season for the Yotes, one that, frankly, no one saw coming.
UAlbany
UAlbany’s run to the semifinals was the biggest FCS turnaround in years.
The Great Danes were picked to finish 11th in the CAA last summer after going 3-8. UAlbany went on to finish tied atop the conference at 7-1, finishing 9-3 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS to earn the No. 5 playoff seed.
UAlbany beat Richmond 41-13 in the second round, then went to No. 4 seed Idaho and won 30-22 to advance to its first-ever FCS semifinal. The Great Danes ran into the juggernaut there, losing 59-0 at SDSU.
The Great Danes rank No. 5 in the final media poll.
Montana
Montana faced some uncertainty after an 8-5 season and a second-round playoff exit. The Grizzlies had a new starting quarterback for the third straight season, and the defense lost three All-American/All-Big Sky First Team players.
They entered 2023 ranked No. 14 in the preseason FCS media poll and were picked by Big Sky coaches to finish sixth in the conference.
The Griz underwhelmed to start the season, narrowly beating inferior competition and losing at unranked Northern Arizona in an ugly game, both in execution and effort. But then Montana rattled off seven straight regular-season wins. It improved every week and finished the regular season 10-1 with four ranked wins, three over Top 10 teams.
A No. 2 seed resulted in a legendary playoff run, beating Delaware 49-19, Furman 35-28 in overtime, and NDSU 31-29 in double-overtime. Montana reached its first FCS championship game since 2009, losing 23-3 to SDSU to finish the season ranked No. 2.
Villanova
The Wildcats didn’t have big expectations following its 6-5 campaign in 2022. Villanova received some votes in the FCS preseason media poll and was picked to finish seventh in the CAA.
Nova quickly rose in the rankings as it finished 7-1 in the conference, 9-2 overall, and 9-1 vs. the FCS. It earned the No. 8 seed in the playoff bracket.
The Wildcats defeated Youngstown State 45-28 in the second round, a game several predicted YSU to win. The season ended in the quarterfinals with a 23-12 loss at eventual national champs SDSU. Nova was SDSU’s toughest game in the bracket.
The Wildcats rank No. 6 in the final media poll.
Honorable Mention: Delaware, Southern Illinois, Howard, Western Carolina
Biggest Disappointments
Montana State
The Bobcats, preseason ranked No. 3, had legit national title expectations entering this fall after reaching the 2022 semifinals and the 2021 championship game. From its 12-2 squad, MSU returned its entire starting o-line, its two-headed QB attack/top two rushers, its starting d-line, and plenty of experience in the back seven.
MSU showed it was ready to compete in the top tier when it lost 20-16 at No. 1 SDSU, a game it nearly won if not for a review that controversially overturned a game-winning touchdown.
MSU was 6-1 but then lost at ranked Idaho. The Bobcats suffered its third loss of the regular season at rival Montana, a 37-7 thumping. This pushed MSU back from a potential No. 2 seed to the No. 6 seed. The Bobcats then got the worst second-round draw, hosting NDSU. MSU lost 35-34 in excruciating fashion when its game-tying PAT was blocked in overtime.
A different draw and/or a couple of inches here or there against NDSU, and MSU was likely good enough to make a run to the semifinals. Instead, it ended the season on a two-game losing streak to its hated rival and a gut-punching loss to the Bison.
William & Mary
William & Mary entered 2023 ranked No. 4 in the FCS preseason media poll after reaching the 2022 quarterfinals and finishing 11-2.
The Tribe returned its starting quarterback, top three rushers, four starting offensive linemen, nine of its top 11 tacklers, and two All-American defensive ends.
W&M just did not develop into being a one-year better squad. It started 4-0, but a few of the wins were underwhelming. A three-game losing streak then set the Tribe way back, losing to FBS Virginia and unranked Elon and Towson. W&M suffered a fourth loss in early November at UAlbany, and it was eliminated from playoff contention in the regular-season finale with a loss to Richmond.
After a Top 5 preseason national ranking, the Tribe finished 6-5 overall and 4-4 in the CAA.
Holy Cross
Holy Cross was ranked No. 5 nationally in the preseason media poll. The Crusaders went 12-1 in 2022, featuring a trip to the quarterfinals where they gave eventual national champs SDSU its toughest game in the bracket.
Holy Cross returned eight starters on offense and six on defense, highlighted by an All-American QB, WR, and LB.
The Crusaders showed it can be a dangerous squad, losing two three-point games to FBS Boston College and Army. Injuries took its toll, but Holy Cross still suffered bad losses to then-unranked Harvard and Lafayette. At 7-4 and no ranked wins, a team expected to make a solid playoff run missed the bracket.
UIW
UIW saw massive turnover after its 2022 season that saw a 12-2 finish and a near victory at NDSU in the semifinals. Clint Killough took over as head coach with plenty of roster movement to manage. UIW lost three transfers to other FCS teams and 14 to the FBS, nine who followed former head coach G.J. Kinne to Texas State. UIW replenished the roster with 20 FBS transfers and three FCS transfers.
Despite returning only one of its 13 All-Southland Conference selections from 2022, the Cardinals were preseason ranked No. 7 in the FCS media poll.
UIW finished 8-2 and ranked No. 22 in the final poll. A fine season, but it did underwhelm in many of its wins against a weaker strength of schedule. A D2 win and Northwestern State canceling its season resulted in only seven D1 wins and no ranked victories, which kept the Cardinals out of the playoffs.
Samford
Samford was ranked No. 9 in the media’s preseason Top 25 poll. The Bulldogs went 11-2 overall in 2022 and 11-1 vs. the FCS, featuring a trip to the quarterfinals.
Plenty returned for 2023. Seven starters were back on an explosive offense, including an All-American QB, leading rusher, and two of the top three wide receivers. The defense only returned four starters but did bring back its top tackler and some transfer help.
But progression never happened. Samford started the season 1-3 with no D1 wins. The Bulldogs did push No. 5 Furman in a 27-21 loss. And they beat ranked UT Martin 27-17 in the regular-season finale, which resulted in UT Martin getting left out of the playoffs. But overall, Samford finished 6-5, vastly underperforming compared to its preseason expectations.
Honorable Mention: Weber State, SEMO, NC Central
