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Mountain West Football Betting: Championship Odds & Prediction

Ron Counts by Ron Counts
October 23, 2025
Boise State wide receiver Chris Marshall

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

There’s plenty of praise to spread around after Boise State’s 56-31 win over UNLV. 

Running back Dylan Riley put up a career-high 201 rushing yards, wide receiver Chris Marshall made some improbable catches, and the defense played one of its best games of the season.

But there may not be anyone on the roster more deserving of praise than Boise State offensive line coach Tim Keane and strength coach Ben Hilgart.

The Broncos (5-2, 3-0 Mountain West) dominated up front on both sides of the ball. The defense seemed a step faster and a whole lot stronger than the Rebels from start to finish, and Boise State’s offensive line looked special. 

Riley and company ran through gaping holes on the way to 294 rushing yards, the most Boise State has put up since it finished a lopsided win over Eastern Washington with 328 on Sept. 5. UNLV’s leading rusher, Jai’den Thomas, was held to 38 yards and averaged just 3.5 yards a carry. He averages 7.4 yards per attempt on the season. 

The latest in a long line of Mountain West wins for Boise State was the perfect microcosm of its time in the conference, which it joined in 2011. The Broncos have won 15 straight conference games, and they’re 159-45 all-time against Mountain West teams. They’ve gone undefeated in conference play three times since 2019, not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 season.


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Boise State has won a record five Mountain West titles and played in the championship game eight times since its inception in 2013. BYU, TCU, and Utah all won four titles before leaving the conference. 

There would be something poetic about the Broncos riding off into the sunset with their third straight title. Boise State has been the king of the Mountain West for a long time, and it looks like it will go out that way.

Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Utah State are leaving the Mountain West to join Oregon State, Washington State, Texas State, and Gonzaga (basketball) in the rebuilt Pac-12 next season.

Mountain West Football Betting Odds

Boise State is still the college football betting odds favorite to win the Mountain West championship, per BetMGM. 

The Broncos opened the season as the favorite at -160. San Diego State, Utah State, and New Mexico have far outperformed their preseason odds. The Lobos opened the season at +20000, the Aggies opened at +5000, and the Aggies were at +3500.

Mountain West Championship Betting Odds

TeamOdds
Boise State-170
San Diego State+500
UNLV+700
Hawaii+1200
Fresno State+2000
Utah State+2200
New Mexico+3000
San Jose State+6600
Wyoming+8000
Colorado State+15000

Boise State’s Offensive Line Is Special

The Broncos seem to have discovered the blueprint for their third straight conference title run: let one of the most talented G5 backfields in the country carry the load behind a talented, experienced offensive line.

That’s not to say quarterback Maddux Madsen and the passing attack can’t carry the Broncos to a win or two. Madsen is a gritty, smart football player who has shown he has the heart and the intelligence to play the position at a high level. But Boise State’s clearest path to success – which, for the Broncos, looks like a second straight College Football Playoff berth – begins and ends with talented runners like Riley, Sire Gaines, Malik Sherrod, and Jambres Dubar toting the rock behind a line that could include multiple NFL prospects. 

Left tackle Kage Casey is likely going to hear his name called in the NFL Draft. There aren’t many players who start 35 consecutive games at that position without earning a shot at the next level. But Casey isn’t the Broncos’ only star in the trenches. 

Center Mason Randolph and guard Roger Carreon have been key to the Broncos’ success on the ground. Both have dealt with injuries the past couple seasons, but Boise State’s rushing attack is hard to handle when they’re both on the field and in their natural positions. The Broncos tried moving Randolph to right guard with Carreon out earlier this season, but the line struggled. Don’t be surprised if one or both of them get a chance to earn a spot on an NFL roster. 

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Mountain West Championship Prediction

I predict Boise State wins the Mountain West championship, even if the Broncos drop one of their remaining regular season games. The running game and offensive line are too good, Madsen doesn’t make an abundance of mistakes, and while the defense isn’t perfect it has improved. 

Reminder: Boise State’s only losses are to No. 18 USF and No. 12 Notre Dame.

That doesn’t mean the rest of the conference is going to lay down for the Broncos. San Diego State has been the surprise of the year in the Mountain West, Hawaii has a passing attack that’s tough to stop, and Fresno State has the pieces in place to upset someone. A productive quarterback and an ever-improving defense make Utah State a darkhorse title contender. 

Hawaii is an especially intriguing underdog. The Rainbow Warriors are already bowl-eligible, and they have a rising star in quarterback Micah Alejado, who leads one of the best passing attacks in the nation. Hawaii also doesn’t play Boise State in the regular season, which could set up a rematch of the 2019 Mountain West Championship in Boise, Idaho. 

The next few weeks will be telling for Boise State. The Broncos host Fresno State on Nov. 1 and follow a bye week with a game at San Diego State on Nov. 15. Boise State ends the regular season at Utah State.    

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