Hawaii never trailed and led by as much as 13 in the third quarter in last week’s win over Colorado State.
The Rainbow Warriors improved to 6-2 overall and 3-1 in Mountain West play and won outright as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week. BetMGM college football betting odds had them as a three-point road dog.
Here’s this week’s selection (with odds as of this writing).
Ball State (+5.5, +180) vs. Northern Illinois
It’s always great when there’s a trophy on the line in the MAC. It’s even better when that trophy features stalks of corn.
Unfortunately, this is the last time these two squads will be battling for the Bronze Stalk Trophy as conference foes with NIU heading to the Mountain West. So far, they’re not scheduled to play each other again.
I think that means this game will be a close one and one that could come down to the final few possessions.
The Cardinals have been inconsistent this season, but when they’re playing well they can be tough to beat. We saw that with a close game against UConn and a win over Ohio where they were 14.5-point underdogs. Then we saw the blowout loss to Western Michigan.
I expect the version of this team that showed up against Ohio, not just because there’s some hardware at stake but because BSU has a chance to go 3-1 in conference play. The Huskies, on the other hand, are just 1-6 and haven’t had much go their way.
Both of these offenses struggle to put points on the board, so I anticipate a low-scoring contest. Ball State averages 17 points per game while the Huskies average 12 PPG.
Ball State has a solid rushing duo in quarterback Kiael Kelly and running back Qua Ashley, who I think will find success on the ground here. NIU gave up six rushing touchdowns last week to Ohio. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ashley broke off a couple long runs.
The Cardinals have won the last three meetings in this rivalry, and the underdog has won four of the last five matchups.
BSU is 5-2 against the spread this year and 3-2 as an underdog. NIU is 1-6 ATS and 0-3 at home.
Honorable Mentions
Utah State (+3, +130) vs. New Mexico
These squads were expected to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West this year, but both are 4-3 and have had decent seasons so far.
I think QB Bryson Barnes and Utah State’s offense will find a lot of success here against the Lobos, who haven’t been too stout against the pass. Barnes is fourth in the league with 234 YPG and has 13 TDs against two interceptions. UNM is allowing 255 passing YPG and allowing opponents to complete passes at a 70% clip.
The Lobos also have the most turnovers in the league with 16 and have only forced four. The Aggies have coughed up the ball only six times this year. I think the turnovers will be a key difference in this outing and will allow Utah State to hang around and potentially pick up a road win.
USU is 6-1 ATS and 3-0 as an underdog. UNM is 1-2 ATS as a favorite.
Akron (+9.5, +285) vs. Buffalo
This is more of a fade of the Bulls than putting trust in the Zips.
Buffalo has been fortunate the last two weeks and has somehow escaped with a pair of victories, especially after UMass had a meltdown last week.
I don’t think the Zips win this game, but I do think they have a chance at covering the spread. I think they have been playing better than anticipated the past few weeks and hung around for much of the game against Ball State last week.
Akron has a solid running back in Jordan Gant, and if the Zips can lean on him to make plays and drag out long possessions, I think they can hang around.
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS this year and 0-4 as a favorite. The Zips are 3-5 ATS.
Georgia State (+6.5, +188) vs. South Alabama
These are the only two one-win teams in the Sun Belt, and I’m sure they’re both aware. Nobody wants to be the team with the least amount of wins in the league.
Georgia State’s offense has been shredded for much of the season and is allowing a league-worst 41 PPG. However, South Alabama’s offense isn’t very intimidating, so I don’t expect the Jaguars to score a barrage of points and pull away.
South Alabama might still be deflated after a last-second loss to Arkansas State last week, and I like Georgia State to keep pace with the Jaguars at home in this Thursday night contest.
