One game last week totally changed the complexion of the American Athletic Conference race, and also might have altered the conference’s chances to earn a College Football Playoff bid.
That’s because the leading contender for both the conference title and a CFP berth, Memphis, got pushed all over the place in a 56-44 loss at Navy.
Anybody who watched the game realized how dominant Navy was, especially with its offensive line.
So now, is Navy actually the leading contender to try to win the AAC title and snag a CFP berth?
What about unbeaten Army?
And of course, there’s still two other leading preseason contenders, Tulane and USF, one that had a strong performance last week and the other that had a frustrating one, albeit against one of the top teams in college football.
The fact remains Memphis was by far the clear favorite among AAC teams to earn that Group of Five playoff spot. Now Memphis could be fighting for its life just to earn a berth in the AAC title game.
While Navy’s Wing-T running attack is always a challenge to prepare for, the Midshipmen ran roughshod through the Memphis defense. Navy gained 566 total yards on just 53 plays. That is 10.6 yards per play.
This was a Memphis team that was the favorite in the AAC preseason poll and was coming off a 20-12 win at Florida State.
Memphis held Florida State to 1.5 yards per carry. Navy, on the other hand, rushed for 361 yards with a healthy 9.3 yards-per-carry average and five touchdowns. Quarterback Blake Horvath had one of the top games for a Navy quarterback in recent memory.
He rushed for 211 yards on just 12 carries and four touchdowns. Horvath also completed 9 of 12 passes for 192 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. This was obviously one of the top quarterback performances in the still-young college football season.
Now two questions arise from that.
Can Memphis rebound and is Navy that good?
With Seth Henigan at quarterback, Memphis can surely rebound, but the defense needs to rebuild its confidence.
As for Navy, the answer might be yes, they are indeed this talented.
The Midshipmen’s next three games are road contests at UAB and Air Force, and after a bye, they’re at home against Charlotte.
It’s conceivable the Midshipmen could be 6-0 entering their Oct. 26 game against Notre Dame in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Remember, this is a Notre Dame team that already lost to one G5 opponent, Northern Illinois.
The schedule, from an AAC perspective, gets tougher in the final four games. Navy visits Rice and South Florida, hosts Tulane, and then travels to East Carolina on Nov. 30. That’s an East Carolina team that gave Liberty fits before falling 35-24 last week.
Keep in mind, the AAC title game is the following week, Dec. 6.
The week after that, Army plays Navy in their traditional rivalry matchup, but that doesn’t count as an AAC game for either team.
What a wild potential scenario. Army and Navy could play for the AAC championship game on Dec. 6 and then meet in their traditional matchup on Dec. 14 in Landover, Maryland.
How many people could have pictured an Army-Navy AAC Championship game at the beginning of the season?
Tulane, coming off a solid 41-33 road win over Louisiana, already has two losses. The Green Wave will likely have to run the table to merit CFP consideration, even though both losses were against Power Four schools, Kansas State (34-27) and at Oklahoma (34-19).
What didn’t help is that both teams were easily defeated this past week with Kansas State losing 38-9 at BYU and Oklahoma falling 25-15 at home to Tennessee in another game not as close as the final score indicated.
And that brings us to another AAC team looking to contend for the title and a CFP berth – USF. The Bulls have lost to Alabama and at home to Miami.
In addition, talented dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown departed late in the Miami game due to injury. However, USF head coach Alex Golesh said Brown could have gone back in and “he will be fine.”
This week’s Tulane-USF game should have a playoff feel between two teams wanting to insist they are in the AAC Championship race to the end.
Did I fail to mention that North Texas is 3-1, with only a loss to Texas Tech? And who knows if UTSA will have a chance to win the league title.
There is less certainty in the AAC than there has been in a long time. It should make for a great conference race, but it’s maybe not as good for the AAC’s chance at a CFP bid if these teams keep beating each other.
