Some Texas State fans have hoped their school would receive an offer to join the remade Pac-12. That now seems imminent.
Texas State is the primary target to become the Pac-12’s eighth full-time member, according to a report from ESPN. If that invitation were to be extended, it seems likely Texas State would take it.
Here’s a look at what this means for Texas State and college football as a whole.
Reasoning For Texas State’s Pac-12 Move
Texas State could make more money long-term with the move to the Pac-12 if the league finds some stability. But it could also prove to be risky leaving a league like the Sun Belt.
The Pac-12 currently has just two teams, Washington State and Oregon State. The Pac-12 needs at least eight teams by 2026 to be deemed a legitimate conference by the NCAA. The league has seven full-time members established.
It seems unlikely the Pac-12 will again become an autonomous league, one that brings in more money from the College Football Playoff and has a bigger say with NCAA decisions. The Power Four conferences, the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, and SEC, are the four current autonomous leagues. It also seems unlikely the CFP will go back up to six automatic qualifying spots for league champions after it went down to five when the Pac-12 nearly dissolved.
But, reportedly, Pac-12 leaders think the conference can strike a lucrative media deal, and money has been a primary motivation in conference realignment.
When Is Texas State Joining The Pac-12?
If Texas State were to go to the Pac-12, it would likely be for the 2026 season so the league has the eight full-time members it needs.
Mountain West Teams Going To The Pac-12
San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and Utah State are the five Mountain West teams which have announced they are going to the Pac-12. Gonzaga is also going to the Pac-12 as a non-football member.
Texas State’s Sun Belt Buyout
The buyout for Texas State to leave the Sun Belt for the 2026 season is $5 million, but that figure would rise to $10 million if official notice isn’t given before July 1 of this year.
Teams That Left The Pac-12
USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington went to the Big Ten. Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are now in the Big 12. And Cal and Stanford are now competing in the ACC.
That leaves just Oregon State and Washington State in the Pac-12 for 2025.
Pac-12 2025 Conference Realignment News
Texas State has long been rumored to be a candidate for Pac-12 expansion. But a deal hasn’t happened yet due to a few reasons.
The Pac-12 added five Mountain West schools, but the league initially wanted more from the MW. UNLV and Air Force were seen as potential Pac-12 candidates as well, but they are staying put and therefore are receiving more money from the Mountain West. The Pac-12 is supposed to pay hefty fees for taking Mountain West schools, but exactly how much may need to be settled in court.
The Pac-12 also tried adding multiple AAC programs like Tulane and UTSA, but those schools recommitted to the AAC. Memphis could still potentially go to the Pac-12 for football only.
So the Pac-12 is looking at Texas State, which would give the conference a foothold in the Lone Star State. It’s a solid university by several metrics, and the football team has shown growth in the past couple years. In the two seasons that GJ Kinne has been the head coach, the Bobcats have gone 8-5 in both 2023 and 2024, ending both of those seasons with bowl victories.
Pac-12 Media Deal
The Pac-12’s impending media deal will reportedly pay schools between $4 million and $10 million per year, but that’s a wide range and much still needs to be sorted out.
Pac-12 teams are looking to earn more than the $4 million per team per year payout that came with the Mountain West media deal, according to ESPN. But it appears it will be below $10 million per year, which was pitched when the Pac-12 began looking for new members.
The financial details of the Pac-12’s future media deal has yet to be hammered out. However, it’s expected to involve multiple outlets.
The Pac-12, with two teams in 2025, will have games on the CW, ESPN, and CBS. But that may not be the case in 2026 and beyond.
Sun Belt Conference Media Deal
Teams in the Sun Belt receive about $2 million per year thanks to its media deal with ESPN, which ends in 2031. So if Texas State were to leave, the Pac-12’s media contract should probably pay even more.
How Long Has Texas State Been In The Sun Belt?
Texas State has been in the Sun Belt since 2013. Texas State competed in the WAC in 2012, its first season in the FBS.
