There are a few more similarities between Rice and Texas State other than calling the Lone Star State home.
First of all, the Owls and the Bobcats have exceeded expectations this season. College football betting odds had both of their win totals at 4.5 entering the season. They were both also predicted to finish near the bottom of their conferences.
The Sun Belt preseason media poll had Texas State finishing 10th in the 14-team league, and the AAC preseason media poll had Rice finishing 12th out of 14 teams. Both programs finished sixth in their respective leagues, going 4-4 in conference play. Now, they meet in the First Responder Bowl on Dec. 26 where the Bobcats are a 5.5-point favorite.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
Both teams also leaned on transfer QBs to guide them through the season. Bobcat QB TJ Finley transferred from Auburn, where he spent two seasons. The decision to join Texas State seemed to be the right one as Finley has passed for 3,287 yards and 24 scores this year while tossing just eight picks. He was a big reason why the Bobcats finished 7-5.
Like Texas State, the Owls had a transfer QB help guide them to their first six-win season since 2014. Unfortunately, journeyman JT Daniels was injured on Nov. 4 and has since medically retired. In his shortened season, Daniels passed for 2,443 yards and 21 TDs. The Owls were 4-4 prior to his injury.
Freshman QB AJ Padgett took over for Daniels and helped Rice finish the season strong with back-to-back wins to secure bowl eligibility with a 6-6 record. Padgett has passed for 577 yards and six scores in his three starts.
The Bobcats and the Owls also both have a former QB who has stepped outside of their old role to help their team in other ways. Malik Hornsby was with Arkansas the previous three seasons before transferring to Texas State this season. He’s still listed as a QB, but is typically used in running schemes. Hornsby has 35 carries for 229 yards and six TDs.
On the other side, Luke McCaffrey transferred to Rice ahead of the 2021 season and started three games under center that year. The following season saw McCaffrey switch to wideout, where he has had a lot of success.
Last year, McCaffrey finished with 723 receiving yards and six TDs and currently has 963 yards and 12 TDs this season.
Outside of the similarities between these squads, they of course have their differences.
Most notable is the reliance on running the ball.
Texas State ranks first in the Sun Belt, averaging 190.9 rushing YPG. The Bobcats have also punched in 29 rushing TDs, also good for tops in the league. They’re led by Ismail Mahdi, who has stepped into his new role in a big way:
The Owls are a lot less effective on the ground, rushing for just 112 YPG, which ranks second-to-last in the AAC. They only have two rushers who have 30 or more carries on the year compared to Texas State’s six.
Texas State-Rice Prediction
With the way the Bobcats can move the ball both through the air and on the ground, I think it’ll be tough for Rice to both stop this offense and also keep up with it with it. The Owls rush defense is average, allowing 153 YPG, and Texas State has proven it can come at a defense in multiple ways on the ground.
Padgett has shown some promise in his last couple of games, but it’s a stretch to expect him to match Finley’s production, and the Bobcats’ defense isn’t a pushover.
I’ll go with Texas State to win and cover the spread.
