The San Diego State football team came within a game of playing for the Mountain West championship last season.
The Aztecs are hoping an experienced offense, led by last season’s leading rusher, Lucky Sutton, and returning starting quarterback Jayden Denegal will help them compete for a Pac-12 title this season.
College football betting odds have the Aztecs’ win total at Over/Under 6.5 games, with the Over at -145 and the Under at +115.
Here are game-by-game predictions for San Diego State’s 2026 campaign:
Sept. 5 vs. Portland State
Prediction: Win
I expect Sutton and Denegal will lead the Aztecs to an easy season-opening win in front of their home fans. Look for the Aztecs to get wide receivers Jordan Napier and Justius Lowe involved early. The real question is how dominant will San Diego State’s rebuilt defense look against an FCS opponent.
Sept. 12 at UCLA
Prediction: Loss
San Diego State’s defense will get its first real test at the Rose Bowl. UCLA was bad last year, but former James Madison head coach Bob Chesney is in charge now. He brought Sun Belt Player of the Year Wayne Knight with him to run the ball, and quarterback Nico Iamaleava is back for another season. The Bruins may not compete for a Big Ten title, but they could be one of the conference’s most improved teams.
Sept. 19 vs. James Madison
Prediction: Loss
JMU is replacing a lot this season, including Chesney and Knight. But new head coach Billy Napier brought in strong recruiting and transfer classes, and the Dukes are still favored to win the Sun Belt. The offensive line is big, the backfield is deep and the frontrunner in the competition to start at quarterback, Camden Coleman, is a dynamic, explosive player. JMU will have a slew of new starters on defense, though, so a big game from Sutton and company could turn the tides.
Sept. 26 at Toledo
Prediction: Win
This could be a trap game with San Diego State traveling across the country and potentially looking ahead to its Pac-12 opener against Texas State. But Toledo is rebuilding its roster under new head coach Mike Jacobs, and it’s counting on a lot of FCS transfers to contribute right away. The Aztecs should roll against a defense that doesn’t return a single starter.
Oct. 3 vs. Texas State
Prediction: Win
Texas State may have one of the Pac-12’s most potent offenses right out of the gate. That could spell trouble for a San Diego State defense that’s working with a lot of new starters, but they should find their footing this late in the season. Plus, they’ll get a boost from playing at home.
Oct. 10 at Oregon State
Prediction: Loss
San Diego State may be looking past Oregon State and ahead to a big rivalry showdown against a likely conference title contender in Fresno State. The Beavers are coming off of a down year, and they’re certain to be in rebuilding mode, but I believe the offense is going to be better than most think. Quarterback Maalik Murphy is a problem for defenses, and he’ll be throwing to two former SEC receivers in Aaron Butler (Texas) and Aeryn Hampton (Alabama).
Oct. 17 vs. Fresno State
Prediction: Win
The Bulldogs are a trendy pick to win the Pac-12. They return a lot of starters, including one of the conference’s top backfields, and quarterback Khristian Martin has a chance to be exciting. It would be a different story if this was in Fresno, but this is the game the Aztecs have circled all year long, and they can’t afford a loss if they’re going to stay in the title hunt.
Oct. 24 at Colorado State
Prediction: Win
I think Sutton and the rest of the Aztecs’ running backs are going to have a field day against one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West last season. I anticipate the Rams are going to surprise someone despite their near total roster turnover, but it won’t be San Diego State.
Oct. 31 vs. Washington State
Prediction: Win
New WSU head coach Kirby Moore and staff will have the Cougars’ offense humming eventually, but they just don’t have the horses right now. Expect San Diego State to ratchet up the intensity as the title hunt gets hot.
Nov. 14 vs. Utah State
Prediction: Win
This might be a different story if the game was in the snow in Logan, Utah, but the Aztecs are going to have their eyes set on making the title game. Denegal should have a big game against a rebuilt secondary.
Nov. 21 at Boise State
Prediction: Loss
It’s fitting that the Aztecs’ biggest game of the season and a likely title game eliminator comes against Boise State – the hurdle San Diego State couldn’t clear most years in the Mountain West. This is another one that might be different if it was in Snapdragon Stadium, but Albertsons Stadium will be rocking as the Broncos move a step closer to a Pac-12 championship.
