The Sun Belt has been one of the most unpredictable Group of Five conferences this season and both of these teams have surprised.
While only one is still in the conference title race, both squads have something to play for in this matchup. I think this will be one of the most competitive Week 13 games in the conference.
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How To Watch ULM-Arkansas State
The game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET Saturday and will air on ESPN+.
ULM-Arkansas State Betting Odds
Arkansas State is a three-point college football betting odds favorite.
ULM-Arkansas State Coaches & Overall Records
ULM: Bryant Vincent (12-11 overall, 5-5 at ULM)
ASU: Butch Jones (99-86 overall, 17-30 at ASU)
Last meeting: Oct. 28, 2023; ASU won 34-24.
The Red Wolves are 19-4 in this series and are on a 14-game win streak.
ULM Preview
What a tale of two seasons it’s been for the Warhawks.
Once at 5-1 and the talk of the college football world, ULM has lost four straight and is watching bowl aspirations float away. With Louisiana on tap after this meeting, I think this is the last opportunity the Warhawks have to clinch their first bowl berth since 2012.
If they expect to do that, one thing is for sure — the defense has to get back to playing the way it was in the first half of the season.
In ULM’s five wins, it allowed 13.8 points per game. During their current four-game losing streak, the Warhawks are surrendering 40 PPG.
The play of the defense made up for an offense that was struggling and continues to do so. ULM ranks third-to-last in the conference, averaging 20.8 PPG and ranks second-to-last in total yards with 292.5 yards per game. Not pretty numbers.
Quarterback Aidan Armenta took over in Week 5 and was thought to have given a boost to the offense, but it has sputtered in the last month. ULM’s rushing attack has been effective for most of the season, however, and will need to be again this week but must also get some help from Armenta.
ULM is averaging 161.3 rushing YPG, which ranks eighth in the league.
Arkansas State Preview
The Red Wolves were predicted to finish fourth in the Sun Belt West standings in the preseason media poll and are 6-4 overall and 4-2 in conference play. They are tied for second in the SBW and are still clinging to a glimmer of hope to make it to the league championship.
ASU became bowl-eligible with a win over Georgia State last week.
The Red Wolves have only been favored in three games this season and have won each of them. They haven’t really had any big-time wins but have knocked off the teams they should beat. The most impressive win on the schedule is a 18-16 Week 6 victory over South Alabama.
ASU’s losses have come to a pair of ranked teams in Michigan and Iowa State, as well as to Texas State and Louisiana.
It was anticipated Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor would have a big year after being named the Sun Belt Freshman of the Year last season. I don’t think the QB has played up to his potential, however. He’s currently averaging 213 passing yards per game and has eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s added 362 yards and two TDs on the ground.
Raynor has had a tall task for most of the season, though, trying to keep up with opposing offenses. ASU is allowing 32.6 points per game and a league-worst 458 YPG. That includes 204 rushing YPG.
If the Red Wolves want to pick up a win here, they’ll need to find a way to slow ULM’s rushing attack.
ULM-Arkansas State Prediction
I predict the Warhawks are hungrier and will find a way to grind out a win in a low-scoring affair.
I think ULM knows the importance of winning this game if it wants to reach a bowl and will give ASU fits with its rushing attack to get to six wins for the first time since 2018.
