Through eight weeks, the Sun Belt has arguably been the FBS league with the most surprises.
Who would have thought that Georgia Southern would be on top of the Sun Belt East and Louisiana and ULM would both be 3-0 in league play and leading the Sun Belt West?
With a win here, the Warhawks will be alone at the top of the division for two short days and maybe longer depending on what happens when Louisiana hosts Texas State next Tuesday. With a loss, ULM and South Alabama will both be 3-1 in conference play.
This game will have ULM head coach Bryant Vincent heading back to Mobile, where he had two separate stops. He was an associate head coach and co-offensive coordinator from 2015-17.
How To Watch ULM-South Alabama
The game kicks off at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday and will air on ESPN+.
ULM-South Alabama Betting Odds
South Alabama is a seven-point college football betting odds favorite.
ULM-South Alabama Coaches & Overall Records
ULM: Bryant Vincent (12-7 overall, 5-1 at ULM)
USA: Major Applewhite (18-15 overall, 3-4 at South Alabama)
Last meeting: Nov. 7, 2023; South Alabama won 55-7
These teams have played every year since South Alabama joined the Sun Belt in 2013 and have split those meetings 5-5.
ULM Preview
It’s hard to argue there’s been a better story in college football than the complete 180 that’s taking place in Northern Louisiana.
First-year head coach Bryant Vincent seems to have already established a new culture in the ULM program and has the Warhawks as a contender in the Sun Belt. The Warhawks are 5-1 for the first time since 1987. They already knocked off James Madison two weeks ago, proving they’re for real.
JMU was coming off a pair of high-scoring affairs but ran into the roadblock that is the ULM defense. That’s been the biggest story of their successful season. The Warhawks are currently allowing 20 points per game and 329.8 yards per game — both rank in the top three in the league.
Offensively, the Warhawks have just been OK. They do have a pair of 30-point outings and have done enough to pull off victories. Quarterback Aidan Armenta has done a solid job of being a game manager for this offense while ULM has been effective at rushing the ball and running time off the clock. The Warhawks are averaging 156 YPG on the ground and running back Ahmad Hardy is third in the league with 83.3 rushing YPG.
Armenta replaced General Booty in Week 5 against Troy and has been QB1 since. He made his first career start in the upset over JMU.
South Alabama Preview
If the Jaguars fared better in close games, they could be 4-3 or even 5-2. Instead, they’re 3-4 and 0-2 in one-possession games.
The first of those losses came in Week 2 when South Alabama trailed Ohio by four in the fourth quarter. They had two opportunities to take the lead late, but they combined for just minus-11 total yards on those drives. The second loss happened two weeks ago, when Arkansas State went on a 10-play, 60-yard drive in less than two minutes to kick a go-ahead field goal with 10 seconds remaining.
Given that this is anticipated to be a one-possession game, the Jaguars will need to play better than they have down the stretch to pick up a win.
We’ve seen how explosive the offense can be, especially with the connection between quarterback Gio Lopez and wide receiver Jamaal Pritchett. Lopez is currently passing for 244 yards per game and has 13 touchdowns to just one interception. Pritchett’s 39 receptions rank second in the conference, and he’s averaging 81.9 YPG. He’s caught eight TDs and also leads the Sun Belt in punt return average. He returned one punt for a score.
The Jaguars are averaging 34.9 points per game and 445 YPG, but those numbers are somewhat skewed by their 87-point outburst against Northwestern State earlier this year. They have scored more than 30 in just two other games.
ULM-South Alabama Prediction
I predict ULM will not only cover the spread but will win.
South Alabama has struggled against quality teams this season while ULM hasn’t. I expect the Warhawks to disrupt Lopez enough to limit the Jaguars’ offense and keep this low-scoring.
