A month ago it was looking likely that there would be some unusual teams in the Mountain West championship game.
UNLV and Air Force were leading the league while the two preseason favorites — Boise State and Fresno State — were lagging behind. Things drastically changed, however, and Air Force stumbled while Boise started playing its best ball of the season. San Jose State stepped onto the scene as well, winning its final six games.
As you may have heard, the two spots in the MW title game were decided by computer rankings because of a three-way tie between Boise, UNLV, and SJSU. The rankings decided that the Rebels and the Broncos will battle for the first MW crown since the league eliminated divisions.
While we’re used to seeing Boise, UNLV is one of those unusual teams and shows the league had more parity this year than it has in the past.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
Rebels Surprise
College football betting odds had UNLV at +1600 and tied for the fifth shortest odds to win the conference before the season.
I don’t think there was much faith that the Rebels would pave their way to the championship game, especially with a first-year coach in Barry Odom. They even did it with freshman QB Jayden Maiava, who took over the reins for good in Week 3.
Credit to those two though, as they were named MW Coach of the Year and MW Freshman of the Year.
If it’s one thing for the Rebels, they have been consistent all season long. Outside of a 35-7 loss at Michigan in Week 2, UNLV has scored less than 31 points just once and more than 40 six times. Behind Maiava’s excellent ability to manage the game — especially for a freshman — and a guy like Ricky White to lean on, the Rebels’ offense has been the strength of this team.
Maiava averages 218 passing yards per game to go with 14 TDs. He’s added 24 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. White’s 109 receiving yards per game pace the league. He does that on just over six receptions a game.
Boise State’s defense ranks last in the conference, allowing 254 YPG, so this looks like an area of the game that can be the deciding factor.
It’s also worth noting that Rebels kicker Jose Pizano was tabbed MW Special Teams Player of the Year. This game could very well come down to the final possession, and who knows if UNLV will need to rely on Pizano’s leg to capture its first-ever MW title.
Related Articles
Improbable Run By Boise
You don’t necessarily expect a team that fires its head coach — and reigning coach of the year — to make the conference championship game.
But everything fell into place throughout the final two weeks of the regular season and interim coach and defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson guided the Broncos to their second straight MW championship and seventh trip in the past 10 seasons.
Having a guy like Ashton Jeanty on your team makes treading those waters much easier. Jeanty was named the MW Offensive Player of the Year, and his play all season long was a lot of fun to watch.
The sophomore leads the league in all-purpose yards with 164 per game. San Jose RB Kairee Robinson is second with 120 YPG. Jeanty’s 18 TDs also rank second in the conference behind Robinson’s.
Just get Jeanty the ball and good things happen.
Stopping him will be the biggest task for UNLV. The Rebels allow 151.8 rushing YPG, but last week allowed Robinson to run for 165 yards and two scores while Quali Conley added another 62 yards.
That matchup was essential for UNLV as it prepares for this meeting.
Boise bounced between Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen at QB this season, but Madsen suffered a season-ending injury against New Mexico. Now, it’s Green’s offense again and he will likely need to be effective through the air for the Broncos to be successful. He’s completing 55.3% of his passes on the year.
I imagine Odom and the Rebels will try and put the ball in Green’s hands as much as possible.
Mountain West Championship Prediction
I thought UNLV would be the favorite, but college football odds currently have the Rebels as 2.5-point home dogs. Boise played a much tougher schedule than the Rebels, which may have prepared them a little more for this tilt.
However, Odom has had his team very well prepared for every game this season and I expect nothing different Saturday. I’ll take Maiava to take advantage of the weakest part of Boise’s team and help the Rebels come away with the MW title.
