The UNLV football team is jumping right into the fire in head coach Dan Mullen’s second season in Las Vegas.
The Rebels open the season with back-to-back games against likely conference championship contenders, including what might be their top contender in the new-look Mountain West. UNLV is also looking for its fifth-straight win over a Power Four team weeks into the season.
The schedule gets significantly easier after a home game against ACC program Cal – the Rebels’ only P4 opponent – opening the door for at least 10 wins for the third season in a row. UNLV went 10-4 last year, including a loss in the Frisco Bowl.
College football betting odds have the Rebels’ win total at Over/Under 7.5, with the Over at -160 and the Under at +125.
Here are game-by-game predictions for UNLV’s 2026 campaign:
Aug. 29 vs. Memphis
Prediction: Win
Whether Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold or former Michigan Wolverine Alex Orji are taking the snaps, UNLV will debut a new, more explosive backfield against perennial American Conference title contender Memphis, which is undergoing a near total roster turnover.
Jaiden “Jet” Thomas put up more than 1,000 rushing yards last season while paired with athletic quarterback Anthony Colandrea, who left for Nebraska. Arnold and Orji are both more explosive as runners, and Thomas is out to prove he’s the best running back in the Group of Six.
Sept. 5 at Hawaii
Prediction: Loss
The Rebels open their Mountain West schedule against Hawaii, which is likely to be among the favorites to win the conference title after the likes of Boise State, San Diego State, and other top teams left for the Pac-12. It may have been different if this game was in Las Vegas, but Hawaii is led by the conference’s top quarterback in Micah Alejado. He has a chance to make an early case for MW Offensive Player of the Year in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Sept. 12 at North Texas
Prediction: Win
North Texas won 12 games last season, including a 49-47 victory over San Diego State in the New Mexico Bowl. But the Mean Green have to replace more than 40 players, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker. Head coach Eric Morris is also gone after he left for Oklahoma State. He was replaced by former Troy and West Virginia head coach Neal Brown. UNLV will be hungry to get back in the win column against a team that gave up more than 215 rushing yards a game last season.
Sept. 26 at Akron
Prediction: Win
The Zips won their most games ever under head coach Joe Moorhead last season, but they still finished 5-7. Akron’s secondary is full of veterans, but I don’t believe it has the pieces in the front seven to slow UNLV down. I expect the Rebels to have one of their best rushing performances of the season and pull away for an easy win as long as they can contain Akron running back Jordan Gant.
Oct. 3 vs. Cal
Prediction: Win
I think UNLV gets its only Power Four opponent at home as the Rebels’ look for their third-straight win over a former Pac-12 team. The Rebels beat UCLA last season and Cal in the LA Bowl in 2024. They also knocked off Houston and Kansas in 2024. UNLV will be motivated to improve its College Football Playoff resume with a P4 win.
Oct. 10 vs. North Dakota State
Prediction: Win
The Bison have the size on both sides of the line to contend with the Rebels, but North Dakota State doesn’t have the weapons to compete on the outside. I think UNLV should win by double digits, even if the quarterback has to lead the way with his arm.
Oct. 17 at Air Force
Prediction: Win
The Falcons’ triple-option offense can be tricky, especially when it’s run by veterans, but Air Force doesn’t have the pieces on defense to slow UNLV down. I believe Thomas will be due for a big day after what could be a slog against North Dakota State.
Oct. 31 vs. Northern Illinois
Prediction: Win
The Rebels welcome another Mountain West newcomer to Allegiant Stadium, and I think the result will be the same. UNLV will roll to a double-digit win against a squad that returns just four starters and is led by an interim head coach.
Nov. 7 vs. Wyoming
Prediction: Win
Wyoming’s offense should have found its footing under new coordinator Christian Taylor and a likely new starting quarterback in William & Mary transfer Tyler Hughes this late in the season. But the Cowboys have too many questions on both sides of the ball. The defense is historically Wyoming’s strength, but the unit returns just two starters from last season.
Nov. 14 at New Mexico
Prediction: Loss
This could be a Mountain West title game eliminator and one of the conference’s biggest games of the year. The Lobos will get a big boost from playing at home in a contest that very well could come down to the final possession.
Nov. 21 at San Jose State
Prediction: Win
The Spartans’ offense shouldn’t miss a beat with Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver taking over at quarterback, but the defense could struggle to match up with the Rebels.
Nov. 28 vs. Nevada
Prediction: Win
I expect UNLV will stretch its winning streak over in-state rival Nevada to five straight. UNLV needs to win here to keep any hopes of a fourth-straight appearance in the Mountain West title game alive.
