Week 12 Group of Five College Football Best Bets

After a 1-4 record last week, I’m 23-34-1 on my Group of Five best bets this season. 

Is the year over yet? Can I stop sharing these?

I’ll stick it out until the end, although my dream of winning 55% of my Group of Five bets feels like a fantasy at this point. Oh well.

I’ll dive into college football betting odds again and try to at least win three of five bets.

Memphis vs. SMU Prediction: Memphis +8.5

SMU’s advanced metrics are impressive, as the Mustangs obliterate AAC teams. Memphis isn’t a typical AAC team, though. The Tigers are good, and they can score with anyone. 

Given Memphis’ talent on offense and that the game is at home, I like the Tigers to stay within a touchdown. SMU may win and move closer to its New Year’s Six bowl dreams, but I don’t have the Mustangs winning on the road by more than one score.

Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky Prediction: Sam Houston +12.5

Don’t look now, but Sam Houston has won two games in a row! Western Kentucky, at 5-5, is one of my biggest disappointments of the season. 

I expected more from Western Kentucky this season in a manageable conference, but dreams of a Conference USA title have ended. Western Kentucky might win, but the spread feels high against a Sam Houston team fighting for a strong finish. 

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Utah State vs. Boise State Prediction: Utah State +3.5

Boise State has struggled to win on the road this season, going 1-4 with its only win being a three-point victory at San Diego State.

Boise State also just fired its head coach, Andy Avalos. Maybe a change inspires the team to play a great final two games in the regular season. But I’m not sure that’ll happen, especially since Avalos wasn’t doing that bad of a job leading the Broncos. 

Utah State’s offense is legit, and the Aggies have looked solid at home this season. I’ll take them to cover. 

Marshall vs. South Alabama Prediction: Marshall +11

The Jaguars are not to be trusted. I think they’re receiving too much credit from advanced metrics for blowout victories against ULM and Southern Miss. 

When South Alabama plays at its very best, it’s a dangerous team. When it doesn’t, it gets ugly. There’s not enough consistency with South Alabama for me to trust the Jaguars to cover an 11-point spread. 

Marshall’s offense seemingly came to life last week against Georgia Southern with Cole Pennington at quarterback. I think the Thundering Herd at least cover the spread this weekend. 

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LSU vs. Georgia State Prediction: LSU -31

Georgia State is coming off consecutive 42-14 home losses to JMU and App State. The Panthers have already clinched bowl-eligibility, so there’s not a ton at stake against the Tigers other than battling for a shocking upset. 

LSU’s Jayden Daniels is playing to win the Heisman Trophy, and he should tear up a struggling Georgia State defense. I’d be surprised if LSU doesn’t eclipse 50 points in this game, which should be ample scoring to cover this gigantic spread. 

Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.