After a 1-4 record last week, I’m 23-34-1 on my Group of Five best bets this season.
Is the year over yet? Can I stop sharing these?
I’ll stick it out until the end, although my dream of winning 55% of my Group of Five bets feels like a fantasy at this point. Oh well.
I’ll dive into college football betting odds again and try to at least win three of five bets.
Place College Football Wagers at BetMGM
Memphis vs. SMU Prediction: Memphis +8.5
SMU’s advanced metrics are impressive, as the Mustangs obliterate AAC teams. Memphis isn’t a typical AAC team, though. The Tigers are good, and they can score with anyone.
Given Memphis’ talent on offense and that the game is at home, I like the Tigers to stay within a touchdown. SMU may win and move closer to its New Year’s Six bowl dreams, but I don’t have the Mustangs winning on the road by more than one score.
Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky Prediction: Sam Houston +12.5
Don’t look now, but Sam Houston has won two games in a row! Western Kentucky, at 5-5, is one of my biggest disappointments of the season.
I expected more from Western Kentucky this season in a manageable conference, but dreams of a Conference USA title have ended. Western Kentucky might win, but the spread feels high against a Sam Houston team fighting for a strong finish.
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Utah State vs. Boise State Prediction: Utah State +3.5
Boise State has struggled to win on the road this season, going 1-4 with its only win being a three-point victory at San Diego State.
Boise State also just fired its head coach, Andy Avalos. Maybe a change inspires the team to play a great final two games in the regular season. But I’m not sure that’ll happen, especially since Avalos wasn’t doing that bad of a job leading the Broncos.
Utah State’s offense is legit, and the Aggies have looked solid at home this season. I’ll take them to cover.
Marshall vs. South Alabama Prediction: Marshall +11
The Jaguars are not to be trusted. I think they’re receiving too much credit from advanced metrics for blowout victories against ULM and Southern Miss.
When South Alabama plays at its very best, it’s a dangerous team. When it doesn’t, it gets ugly. There’s not enough consistency with South Alabama for me to trust the Jaguars to cover an 11-point spread.
Marshall’s offense seemingly came to life last week against Georgia Southern with Cole Pennington at quarterback. I think the Thundering Herd at least cover the spread this weekend.
LSU vs. Georgia State Prediction: LSU -31
Georgia State is coming off consecutive 42-14 home losses to JMU and App State. The Panthers have already clinched bowl-eligibility, so there’s not a ton at stake against the Tigers other than battling for a shocking upset.
LSU’s Jayden Daniels is playing to win the Heisman Trophy, and he should tear up a struggling Georgia State defense. I’d be surprised if LSU doesn’t eclipse 50 points in this game, which should be ample scoring to cover this gigantic spread.