Through two weeks, I’m humbled and honored to be 7-3 on my Group of Five best bets. That’s an annoying sentence I might post ironically on my LinkedIn page later today. We’ll see.
In all seriousness, I’m off to a hot start this year, which means I’m due to cool off soon. Hopefully it’s not this week, so let’s dig through the college football betting odds and find some winners.
Georgia State +7.5 at UNC
Georgia State ran for 200 yards, held South Carolina to 79 rushing yards, intercepted Spencer Rattler twice, but still lost to the Gamecocks 35-14 last week. How?? Special teams.
The Panthers allowed two blocked punts to be returned for touchdowns, and South Carolina hit a pair of 50-yard field goals. If Georgia State cleans up the punt protection – a fairly basic fix – the Panthers are plenty good enough to cover at home against a UNC team with a suspect defense.
East Carolina -12.5 vs. Old Dominion
Smell that? It’s a fishy line. On paper, Old Dominion just defeated Virginia Tech. Why would the Monarchs be a nearly two-touchdown underdog against ECU?
Well, ECU nearly took down a ranked N.C. State team, and Old Dominion needed five Virginia Tech turnovers to barely squeak out a 20-17 win. Virginia Tech isn’t great, and Old Dominion can’t rely on an incredible turnover differential or a rowdy home crowd this weekend. ECU might be legitimately good, and I’ll bank on the Pirates bouncing back in a big way.
Fresno State moneyline (-105) vs. Oregon State
I love Jake Haener and Fresno State’s offense, so I’ll gladly take the Bulldogs at home against a solid yet unspectacular opponent. Oregon State looked strong in its opening-week win over Boise State, but I like the Bulldogs to pick up the home win – they’re 6-1 at home since the start of last season – in what should be a fun one to watch. Fresno State took down a Pac-12 team (UCLA) last season, and they’re going to do it again this year.
Northern Illinois +6 at Tulsa
The Huskies took a 28-6 lead over Eastern Illinois last week before a sloppy finish led to a 34-27 win. Tulsa lost last week at Wyoming, falling 40-37 in overtime. I like Northern Illinois in this spot, despite last week’s lazy finish from the Huskies, which I feel will serve as a teaching opportunity for coaches rather than a sign of trouble to come.
I don’t want to overthink this game too much. Northern Illinois should factor into the MAC title conversation, while Tulsa is a lower-tier AAC squad. The AAC is a better league, but the Huskies should earn a bowl berth, while Tulsa is aggressively average and constantly underachieved in 2021. Give me the program on better footing.
Middle Tennessee +11.5 at Colorado State
Middle Tennessee got blasted 44-7 by JMU in its season opener, a banner night for the Dukes and a bad loss for the Blue Raiders. Still, this feels like too many points. Colorado State simply isn’t good.
The Rams were blown out 51-7 by Michigan in their opening game, and ESPN’s FPI lists them as the 115th-best team in the country. Massey Ratings list them as the 111th-best team in the nation, and Sagarin Ratings list them at No. 107. Again, they’re not good. MTSU might not be good either, but I like the number and expect a bounce-back performance from a team that won a bowl game in 2021.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
