Western Michigan didn’t do itself any favors in Wednesday night’s loss to Northern Illinois.
Every time the Broncos had an opportunity to even the score or pull ahead, mistakes were made. From penalties to red zone turnovers to special teams blunders, the Broncos gave that game away just as much as NIU won it.
There was a chance for WMU to make a late surge, but its defense couldn’t get off the field to spark a comeback, and the Broncos ultimately fell 42-28.
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Entering the night, the Broncos were the lone undefeated team in the MAC with a 4-0 conference record. Now at 5-4 overall and 4-1 in league play, they’re tied with Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio), and Ohio at the top of the conference.
A trip to the MAC title game was very much in reach, but it’s starting to slip through WMU’s grasp.
According to ESPN Analytics, the Broncos had a 35.9% chance to win the MAC ahead of Wednesday’s contest. With a win, they would have had a 57.5% chance to win the league, but now with the loss, they have a 19.6% chance.
College football betting odds had WMU at +550 to win the conference entering the season. Only Toledo and Miami (Ohio) had shorter odds.
The good news is that with a win next week at Bowling Green, the Broncos’ chances to reach the MAC Championship should increase quite a bit. The Falcons are the favorite to win the conference at +150.
If WMU closes out its schedule with three consecutive wins over BGSU, Central Michigan, and Eastern Michigan, they’ll be at 7-1 in conference play. Much easier said than done, though, especially considering the only game at home is against EMU.
Even if the Broncos were to win the remainder of their games, there’s a chance Miami (Ohio) and Ohio could have a 7-1 conference record as well. WMU doesn’t play either of these teams, so there is no head-to-head tiebreaker with either. Miami owns the tiebreaker over Ohio after its 30-20 victory two weeks ago.
MAC Championship Tiebreakers
If the head-to-head tiebreaker isn’t in play, the MAC’s next three rules to decide who appears in the conference championship are:
- 1. win percentage against all common opponents
- 2. win percentage against all common opponents based upon their order of finish and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish
- 3. combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
In other words, the Broncos are still very much in the mix.
Based on the favorable conference schedule WMU drew this season, it wasn’t surprising that its chances to make the MAC Championship came down to these two weeks against NIU and BGSU. It was going to be interesting to see how it handled the lone tough stretch on its schedule.
The Broncos didn’t pass the first test, making next week’s game even more important. Even with a victory, WMU will need a lot of help and a few things to fall in its favor to make it.
One thing’s for sure: They have to play a much cleaner game if they want a chance at beating the Falcons.
MACtion should get pretty interesting here in the upcoming weeks.
