There was never a chance for Tulsa to cover the spread as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
UAB played its best game of the season, and the Golden Hurricane seemed uninterested in competing. They got behind early and had no fight from there. It was the exact opposite of what I expected from each team.
Here is this week’s G5 Underdog of the Week selection.
San Jose State (+3, +110) at Oregon State
While the Spartans’ offense ran into some issues its last time out, things didn’t look much better for Oregon State.
San Jose State scored just 10 points against Fresno State two weeks ago, and the Beavers only put up seven points in their last outing against Cal. Both squads are coming off a bye. And to go with the offensive struggles, there are also some questions surrounding the quarterbacks for each offense. Both teams saw three different QBs take snaps in their most recent games.
Even with the struggles, I still trust the Spartans’ QB room and their offense a little more than the Beavers’ – right now. San Jose State’s defense has also performed a little better on the year, surrendering 25 points per game compared to OSU’s 29 PPG allowed.
The contest against Fresno State was the only time this year the Spartans have truly struggled to score. I don’t expect them to have the same issues this week. I also anticipate Nick Nash will have another big game, regardless of who is under center.
OSU is spiraling in the wrong direction and is on a three-game losing streak. The Beavers have given up at least 31 points in four straight contests. They’re also 0-4 against the spread in those games.
The Spartans are 4-4 ATS this season and are looking to secure bowl-eligibility before two tough Mountain West games against Boise State and UNLV.
Honorable Mentions
North Texas (+4.5, +165) vs. Army
There’s no denying that Army’s defense is solid, but it hasn’t faced a premier offense at all this season. Each of its opponents have struggled on the offensive side of the ball for most of the season. The case can be made that East Carolina is the best offense the Black Knights have faced.
That being said, I don’t think this secondary has really been tested. UNT quarterback Chandler Morris is leading the FBS with 359 passing yards per game and his 26 touchdowns rank third. I think he’s able to find enough success against this defense to keep the Mean Green in the game.
UNT has competed well against the top teams in the AAC this season. Even though it lost to Memphis and Tulane, both were one-possession games. The Mean Green are coming off a bye and should be well rested and prepared for Army’s physicality and its offense.
Army is 6-2 against the spread this season but didn’t cover the last two weeks. UNT is 4-4 ATS this season.
New Mexico (+2.5, +115) at San Diego State
The Lobos have lost nine straight games to the Aztecs, and if there were ever a time to break that streak, it would be Friday night.
UNM QB Devon Dampier is electric, but the Lobos’ defense could use some work. We saw a subpar Wyoming offense have success against New Mexico last week, and the Aztecs could have the same type of performance, but they’ve had trouble sustaining drives and don’t have a ton of big-play potential. I also don’t know how well they’ll be able to contain Dampier.
The Lobos are 5-2 against the spread this season while SDSU is 4-4.
USF (+3.5, +140) vs. Navy
Just when we thought it may have been a lost season for the Bulls, they seemed to have turned things around and have strung together a pair of wins — albeit against UAB and Florida Atlantic, but still.
Meanwhile, Navy just suffered a loss to Rice as a 12.5-point favorite, and its offense has slumped in its past two outings. Last week’s lengthy weather delay could have had an impact on the Midshipmen, though. A month ago, I would have said the Bulls’ offense couldn’t score enough to keep up with the Midshipmen. I think that’s a possibility now.
USF finally seems to be clicking offensively, and its defense has played better against the rush than the pass. The Bulls are 4-4 ATS this season but just 1-3 as an underdog.
