The FCS Playoff Committee revealed its in-season Top 10 ranking this week.
Expect plenty of changes between now and Selection Sunday as there are several games in the final four weekends with huge implications.
Here are 10 games that will impact the FCS playoff field.
The rankings below are from this week’s Stats Perform Media Poll.
Week 10 (Nov. 2)
No. 23 ETSU at No. 16 Mercer
Mercer ranked No. 8 in the playoff committee’s Top 10. The Bears are 7-1 overall/vs. the FCS with three then-ranked wins and one currently-ranked win.
They’ll get another chance at a ranked W against an ETSU squad that is 5-3 overall. With four games remaining and four wins so far over FCS opponents, a ranked win this weekend would be huge on ETSU’s playoff resume.
Week 11 (Nov. 9)
No. 4 UC Davis at No. 8 Montana
UC Davis is currently 7-1 overall and 7-0 vs. the FCS with one ranked win. Montana is 6-2 overall/vs. the FCS with two then-ranked wins and one currently-ranked win. Both squads still have to play No. 2 Montana State after this game.
Davis looks to remain in the Top 4 seed discussion with a win at Montana. But the Griz could build serious momentum, similar to last year, heading toward Selection Sunday.
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Week 12 (Nov. 16)
No. 17 Abilene Christian at No. 7 Tarleton State
No. 2 Montana State at No. 4 UC Davis
Two key games here that could impact the Top 8 seeds and who gets first-round byes.
Tarleton could be undefeated vs. FCS opponents with no ranked wins. But the last two weeks feature two ranked opponents at home. A win over ACU gets the Texans their first resume-boosting victory and into the Top 8.
In the Big Sky, this is a critical stretch for UC Davis. It’ll likely be undefeated vs. FCS opponents until playing the Montana schools back-to-back weeks. If Davis wins both, the Aggies are suddenly in the conversation for a Top 2 seed. They could also lose both and slide back in the order of seeds.
On the other sideline, MSU looks locked and loaded for a run at a Top 2 seed. The Bobcats get Montana at home the next week, which is favorable for MSU. But a trip to Davis will be a challenge, and arguably its toughest game in its pursuit of a 12-0 record and a coveted Top 2 seed.
Week 13 (Nov. 23)
No. 24 William & Mary at No. 16 Richmond
No. 15 North Dakota at No. 21 Illinois State
No. 8 Montana at No. 2 Montana State
No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 5 South Dakota
No. 11 Central Arkansas at No. 7 Tarleton State
No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 17 Missouri State
The day before Selection Sunday has a massive slate of games that will shake up the playoff seeds and the bubble.
In the MVFC, the UND at Illinois State game could be a win-and-in scenario. If things go chalk, UND would enter this week with six wins and ISU would have eight wins. A seven-win team getting into the bracket during a 12-game season would be tough, but a 7-5 UND team with a win over Montana and beating an eight-win Illinois State team has a strong argument. NDSU at USD could determine a Top 2 seed for the winner if the Bison and Yotes handle business in the prior games. SDSU will also be vying for a Top 3 seed, but a road trip to ranked Missouri State could have its challenges. An interesting scenario would be SDSU winning out, USD winning out, and NDSU losing only one more game at USD. All three would have one FCS loss, all to each other. The Bison would have the best overall body of work … but USD just beat NDSU a day before Selection Sunday … but SDSU beat USD.
In the Big Sky, the Brawl of the Wild will have huge implications, per usual. MSU has a chance to be 11-0 entering this game. Another ranked win over Montana locks up home-field playoff advantage for the Cats. Montana could be 9-2 entering the Brawl, and a win over its fierce rival puts the Griz in a spot for a Top 4 seed.
The CAA is going to be hectic trying to figure out how many bids the league should get. William & Mary and Richmond will be two of the playoff contenders. Richmond could be 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS entering this week. A win could get the Spiders a first-round bye. W&M should be 8-3 entering this game if things go chalk. If the Tribe loses, it would be 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins. That may not be enough for a playoff bid, so beating Richmond will be critical in securing a playoff spot.
And the final two weeks will be very intriguing in the UAC. Tarleton State, ACU, and UCA look like playoff contenders. Tarleton is currently undefeated vs. FCS opponents, but it doesn’t have any ranked wins, which kept them out of the playoff committee’s Top 10. The Texans host both ACU and UCA in the final two weeks. If Tarleton finishes 10-0 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins, suddenly the Texans go from outside of the Top 10 today to in the discussion for a Top 5 seed on Selection Sunday.
