The 2024 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 10 auto-bids from 10 conferences and 14 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
The Field
2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. South Dakota State
4. Mercer
5. SEMO
6. UC Davis
7. Idaho
8. South Dakota
9. Richmond
10. Tarleton State
11. UIW
12. Montana
13. Chattanooga
14. Rhode Island
15. Central Arkansas
16. Villanova
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
CAA – Richmond
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Tarleton State
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
South Dakota State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
Montana (seed)
Chattanooga (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Central Arkansas (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Stony Brook
Last 4 In
ETSU
Illinois State
UT Martin
Abilene Christian
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. William & Mary
26. North Dakota
27. Northern Arizona
28. Western Carolina
29. Stephen F. Austin
30. Tennessee State
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. But the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.
The first round is still regionalized to save the NCAA on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the championship, the committee may allow a seed adjustment of one line to avoid a conference having all its teams on the same side of the bracket.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
As stated above, keep in mind this does factor in future games.
No. 1 seed NDSU is looking strong to win its remaining games, although a road trip to Top 5 South Dakota in the regular-season finale could really shake up the Top 4 seeds if the Coyotes got a win. If the Bison win their final three games, they will finish 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with potentially seven wins over ranked teams.
No. 2 seed Montana State is also rolling. If the Bobcats win out, including wins over Top 10 teams UC Davis (away) and Montana (home), they would be 12-0 overall with an FBS win and potentially three ranked wins.
The fight for the No. 1 seed has arguments on both sides. The Top 2 seeds both get home-field advantage, but the No. 1 seed would get an easier draw if SDSU gets the No. 3 seed.
NDSU’s projected year-end Massey strength of schedule is ranked 4th in the FCS compared to Montana State’s 24th. I think the playoff committee would value NDSU’s resume more due to the Bison’s SOS, number of quality wins, and opponents’ overall record.
No. 3 seed SDSU got a key ranked win over No. 4 South Dakota last weekend. The Jackrabbits have two more ranked opponents on the road at UND and Missouri State. If they win out, they would finish 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS (loss to NDSU) with around four ranked wins. That should be good for the No. 3 seed, especially with a Massey projected year-end SOS that ranks 1st in the FCS.
No. 4 seed Mercer recovered from its ugly loss to Samford by beating ranked Western Carolina. Mercer is currently 7-1 overall/vs. the FCS with three then-ranked wins and one currently-ranked win. The Bears have a winnable road game at VMI and get Furman and ranked ETSU at home. There is also a trip to Alabama on Nov. 16. If Mercer wins out vs. its FCS opponents, that’s a good resume at 10-1 vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins and a couple of wins over teams in the playoff field.
No. 5 seed SEMO is currently 8-1 overall and 8-0 vs. the FCS with a near FBS win over New Mexico State. The Redhawks have one then-ranked win and no wins over currently-ranked teams. They have a win over UT Martin, who has been in and out of the rankings, and there is one upcoming opponent that is currently ranked, Tennessee State. If SEMO wins out, they would be 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with potentially two then-ranked wins. Its SOS in the 60s may drop SEMO out of the Top 5 seeds, but the teams below them could suffer more losses.
No. 6 seed UC Davis is currently ranked in the Top 5 of the polls at 7-1 overall and 7-0 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win. Davis’ playoff seed could really fluctuate, from being a No. 2 seed to being outside of the Top 5 seeds. The Aggies still have to go to Top 10 Montana, then host No. 2 Montana State, and then go to Sac State, who is down this year but it is still a rivalry game. Davis could be the No. 2 seed if it wins out. But how those games go against the Montana schools could drop the Aggies lower in the seeds.
No. 7 seed Idaho got its starting quarterback back last weekend. Jack Layne returned after breaking his collarbone in Week 1. It’s a boost to a beat-up Idaho squad. The Vandals have a favorable final three games against unranked opponents. If they win out, they would be 9-3 overall with two FCS losses to highly-seeded UC Davis and Montana State, three then-ranked wins, potentially one currently-ranked win, and an FBS win.
No. 8 seed South Dakota is similar to UC Davis. A team that is currently ranked in the Top 5 and whose seed could really fluctuate. After nearly beating No. 3 SDSU, the Coyotes are now 6-2 overall, 5-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and no currently-ranked wins. USD should beat Indiana State before going to ranked UND and hosting No. 1 NDSU. If the Yotes win out, they are suddenly in the conversation for a Top 3-4 seed with a win over NDSU. They could also lose to both North Dakota schools. If they beat Indiana State and UND before losing to NDSU, the Yotes would be 8-3 overall with seven FCS wins and two then-ranked wins (1 currently-ranked win over UND). Scheduling a D2 opponent and having its game at Portland State canceled could push USD back in the seeds with only seven FCS victories. That NDSU-USD regular-season finale is going to be massive.
No. 9 seed Richmond is currently 6-2 overall and 6-1 vs. the FCS. The Spiders don’t have any ranked wins, although its decisive victory over Delaware (currently 7-1) will be considered a quality W. UD isn’t eligible in the polls as it transitions to the FBS. They have one currently-ranked team (hosting William & Mary) in its final four games. Richmond needs a win there to have a shot at a Top 8 seed and a first-round bye. They are close to getting into the Top 8 seed projection, but I want to see how the Towson game goes first, a team that has pushed and beaten other top CAA teams. Richmond may have a good argument to jump USD for the No. 8 seed if the Yotes lose another game.
No. 10 seed Tarleton State is currently 7-1 overall and 7-0 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins. The Texans can make their money in the final weeks and shoot up the seeds when they host two currently-ranked teams — Abilene Christian and Central Arkansas. In the UAC filled with parity, they also need to handle business vs. Eastern Kentucky and at West Georgia. Tarleton has had some close games vs. unranked opponents. But if the Texans win out, they could climb above a team like SEMO to be in the Top 5 seeds discussion.
Seeds 11-16 all look to be in that 9-10 win range. As their resumes fill out and there are fewer upcoming games to sort through, we’ll dive more into the seeds and bubble teams and why they are positioned in their spots.