With three games remaining on the schedule for many teams in FCS football, it’s time to break down the postseason chances for every HBCU program.
These projections aren’t limited to evaluating the possibilities of this season’s Celebration Bowl participants from the MEAC and SWAC; I’ll also consider the FCS playoff possibilities of Hampton, North Carolina A&T, and Tennessee State.
All probabilities presented are current as of Friday, Nov. 8, and take into consideration a team’s chances of making the postseason assuming they win their upcoming games, how much “help” these teams will need, and the team’s remaining strength of schedule – both current and remaining.
Note: This is not a power ranking.
With that said, let’s analyze the 2024 postseason hopes of all 21 HBCU FCS teams.
See You in September
There weren’t many surprises here. The Aggies, Delta Devils, Hornets, and Wildcats finished at the bottom of their respective conferences last year. However, Alabama A&M and Grambling State, who received first-place votes in the SWAC’s predicted order of finish, started this year 2-1. The Tigers earned a 41-20 Week 4 non-conference win over Jackson State. Since then, the two teams have a combined record of 2-6.
21. Mississippi Valley State (0-9, 0-5)
20. North Carolina A&T (1-8, 0-5)
19. Alabama A&M (3-5, 1-3)
18. Grambling State (4-5, 1-4)
17. Bethune-Cookman (2-7, 2-3)
So, You’re Sayin’ There’s a Chance…
These teams will need a LOT to happen for their postseason aspirations to come true. Not only will they need to win their remaining games, but they’ll also need several teams ahead of them in the standings to lose multiple games. But, hey, anything can happen.
16. Delaware State (1-8, 0-2)
The Hornets have yet to win a conference game since 2022. Nonetheless, they still have a chance to win the MEAC Title if they can win their final three games (Delaware State hasn’t won three conference games since 2013), Howard loses two, and South Carolina State drops the remaining games on their schedule.
15. Norfolk State (3-7, 1-2)
Norfolk State will need the will and desire King Leonidas and a lot of help to make their first ever trip to the Celebration Bowl. Not only will they have to win back-to-back MEAC games for the first time in three years, Howard and South Carolina State will have to lose a game, and North Carolina Central has to drop three straight conference games for the first time since 2019.
14. Prairie View A&M (4-5, 2-3)
Currently riding a three-game win streak, the Panthers have not only run the table against the hardest remaining conference schedule to win their third West Division Title in four seasons, but Alcorn State will also have to lose two games, and Southern will need to drop all three games remaining on their slate.
13. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3-6, 2-3)
The Golden Lions have no room for error. They will have to run their slate, Southern will have to lose a game, and Alcorn State will need to drop two of their final three if they want to win their first divisional crown since the shortened Spring season of 2021.
12. Texas Southern (3-5, 2-3)
The Tigers’ 41-3 loss to Jackson State last week put a hurtin’ on their chance to win the West Division since 2010 (yes, I know they had to vacate that title), but it didn’t kill them. Texas Southern will need to win three games-in-a-row, a feat they haven’t accomplished since 2018, and Southern will have to suffer their first three-game losing streak in three years.
RELATED: Week 11 HBCU FCS Predictions
On the Bubble
Not as daunting as the previous grouping. These teams will need to win their remaining games and have the team ahead of them in the standings – either in their division or conference — to lose multiple games as well.
11. Tennessee State (6-3, 3-2)
The Tigers are on pace to have their best record in eight years, but their postseason chances are slim. They’ll need Southeast Missouri State, Tennessee Tech, and UT Martin to lose a couple of games to win the Big South-OVC title. However, if TSU can win out– with one of those victories coming against the Redhawks – they will finish the season 9-3. Will their resume be strong enough to convince the committee to give them an at-large bid?
10. Hampton (5-4, 2-3)
Hampton won’t be able to win a CAA title. However, after suffering close losses to Rhode Island and Villanova, who both look to be playoff contenders, the Pirates could make a compelling case for an at-large bid if they can run the table. Richmond, their most difficult opponent remaining on the schedule, will be a home game for the team that snapped a four-game losing streak against the Spiders last year.
9. Alcorn State (4-5, 3-2)
The Braves will need a little assistance if they want to live up to preseason expectations of winning the SWAC West. After dropping their last two games, including a 24-14 loss to Southern, Alcorn State will need the Jags to lose two games and finish the season hot, with their hardest game (Jackson State) being at home.
8. Florida A&M (5-3, 3-1)
Last year’s SWAC champion lost to Jackson State a few weeks ago. They’ll need the Tigers to slip up twice while ending their season on a six-game winning streak. The Rattlers’ remaining schedule — Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State, Bethune-Cookman, and Alabama A&M — is the weakest in the league based on conference records. Only one of those games is on the road.
7. North Carolina Central (6-3, 2-1)
The Eagles suffered a tough conference loss to South Carolina State on Halloween. However, Central has an opportunity to win their second MEAC title in three years if they can sweep their remaining games and the Bulldogs lose two of their last three. If you’re wondering if the Eagles can make the FCS Playoffs if South Carolina State does not lose enough games? The answer is not likely. An early season loss to 6-5 Elon hurt those chances.
In the Hunt
These contenders will find themselves in postseason play If the teams ahead of them in the standings lose at least one game.
6. Alabama State (5-3, 4-1)
Preseason favorites to win the East stumbled against Florida A&M last month. However, the Hornets saved their season with their current three-game win streak. If Alabama State can win their remaining games and the Rattlers drop at least one, ASU will win their first East Division Title since 2010.
5. Morgan State (4-5, 1-1) 3-3
The Bears have a glimmer of hope, even though they are currently on a three-game losing streak. They’ll need North Carolina Central to lose one of their final two games while winning three-in-a-row. Even though Morgan State has won five straight against Delaware State and back-to-back matchups against South Carolina State, they haven’t defeated Howard in their last six attempts.
Win & In
It’s simple. These teams have total control of their postseason futures. Win your remaining games and you’re in.
4. Howard (4-5, 1-1)
The Bison were in this position last year. Even with a conference loss to Norfolk State, if they can win, they’ll return to Atlanta in December. Problem is, they’ve lost four of their five contests against South Carolina State, and they’ll travel to Durham to face North Carolina Central. Howard did, however, snap an eight-game losing streak against the Eagles last year.
3. Jackson State (7-2, 5-0)
The equation is simple for the Tigers. Roll through the SWAC’s fourth-easiest remaining schedule based on conference records, and they’ll host the conference title game for the third time in the last four years. They’ll face winless Mississippi Valley State at home but will travel to face divisional contenders Alabama State (11/16) and Alcorn State (11/23).
2. South Carolina State (6-2, 2-0)
The Bulldogs could be considered a bit of a surprise after their preseason fourth place predicted finish. If South Carolina State can continue winning through the end of the season, not only will they have their first eight-game win streak since 2008, but they will also be crowned MEAC Champs for the second time in four years. South Carolina State has handled Howard and Norfolk Sate three of last four meetings. However, the Bulldogs have lost their last two games against Morgan State.
1. Southern (5-4, 4-1)
Southern may have the least challenging path to the SWAC Championship Game. The Jags have the third- easiest remaining schedule based on conference records. Two of those games are at home against Bethune-Cookman (11/9) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11/16), with their finale played in New Orleans against Grambling State. Southern has dominated the Bayou Classic in recent years, winning five of the last six matchups.
