Week 11 of the 2024 FCS season features two ranked matchups. With just three more games until Selection Sunday, the implications continue to grow.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 70-23
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 11 Top 5 Games
No. 4 UC Davis at No. 7 Montana
Playoff implications are massive in this one, and it’ll be played in front of an ESPN2 national audience.
Montana is 7-2 overall/vs. the FCS, featuring two currently-ranked wins over Missouri State and Western Carolina. The two FCS losses are to No. 21 UND and Weber State. UC Davis is 8-1 overall and 8-0 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win over Idaho. With both squads still having to play No. 2 Montana State, their playoff seeds can range anywhere from inside the Top 4 to outside of the Top 8.
Montana had abysmal defensive performances early in Big Sky play, allowing 49 points at Eastern Washington and 55 points vs. Weber State. There has been defensive progression since. Part of that may be due to opponents, holding Northern Colorado to zero points and Cal Poly to seven points. However, opponents aside, the defense does look more comfortable and confident.
The defense will need to be great on Saturday against a UC Davis offense scoring 35.9 points per game. Veteran QB Miles Hastings is playing the best ball of his career, throwing for 2,800 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Last year’s Big Sky Offensive Player of the Year Lan Larison continues to light it up. He has rushed for 964 yards and 10 scores while tallying 40 catches for 529 yards and five TDs.
UC Davis has found ways to win road games that were maybe closer than expected. The Aggies beat Southern Utah 24-21, Portland State 27-26, and EWU 48-38, although EWU has given many top Big Sky teams trouble. They’ll need to execute at a higher level to get a win at the toughest place to play in the FCS.
Montana was slow out of the gates last year and then made a big-time run in late October into November and into December. You get the feeling that we’re starting to see that again this season. The defense has rounded into form. And the offense, while still erratic with who’s in and who’s out at QB between Logan Fife and Keali’i Ah Yat, has been one of the best in the FCS, especially at home.
RELATED: FCS Bracketology
Prediction: Montana 31-28
No. 11 Rhode Island at Delaware
Rhody is 8-1 overall and 8-0 vs. the FCS. The Rams don’t own a win that jumps off of their resume, although New Hampshire was ranked at the time of their 26-9 win.
Delaware would be a quality win this weekend. The Blue Hens are 7-1 (loss to Richmond) but aren’t eligible to be ranked in the polls because they have more than 63 scholarships on their roster as they transition to the FBS. However, Delaware only dresses 63 scholarship players in CAA games.
Rhode Island has found ways to win close games — 3 points over Holy Cross, 7 points over LIU, 2 points over Hampton, 10 points over Maine, and 11 points over Monmouth after scoring a defensive touchdown as time expired. I think they finally get tripped up on the road.
The Rams want to establish the run behind the legs of Malik Grant, a former FCS All-American at Sacred Heart. This year, he has rushed for nearly 800 yards and seven scores. Delaware is tough against the run, allowing just 108.6 yards per game to rank No. 12 in the FCS. Their 18.8 points allowed per game is No. 15 in the FCS, led by Gavin Moul’s 52 tackles.
Prediction: Delaware 24-20
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No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 21 North Dakota
A desperate UND team fighting for its playoff lives + the voodoo Alerus Center water in UND’s locker room that gets the Fighting Hawks playing at a different level = a good test for SDSU.
UND is coming off of back-to-back road losses to unranked opponents Youngstown State and Indiana State. The defense allowed 41 points and 334 rushing yards at YSU, and then 35 points and 227 rushing yards at ISU. That doesn’t look promising against an SDSU offense that ranks No. 4 in FCS rushing (243.9 YPG) and No. 15 in scoring (35 PPG).
SDSU is still the slight favorite to win the FCS title, but the Jackrabbits have slipped back to the No. 3 ranking after its close loss at NDSU. Saturday is a good opportunity to flex its muscle and get another quality win on the playoff resume. A Top 2 seed and home-field playoff advantage is still a possibility, although SDSU would need some other results to go their way.
UND may pop a big play or two early to make it interesting, but I see the Jacks pulling away in the second half and owning the time of possession as they churn out yards on the ground.
Prediction: SDSU 35-17
No. 22 Western Carolina at ETSU
A must-win game for both to keep their playoff hopes alive.
WCU and ETSU are 5-4 overall. If either wins out, they’ll have a good shot at the bracket at 8-4, although ETSU’s non-D1 win could be a factor on the bubble. But beating a ranked WCU team, plus close losses to Chattanooga and Mercer would give an 8-win ETSU squad a good argument for the bracket.
WCU got a big-time ranked win last week, beating Chattanooga 38-34. And the Catamounts did it without their star QB Cole Gonzales. But all good there, because redshirt freshman Taron Dickens stepped in and went 34/48 for 431 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. He also led the team, which has struggled to get its running backs going consistently, with 41 yards on the ground.
ETSU feels it could easily be 8-1 right now instead of 5-4. They gave then-No. 2 NDSU a 38-35 win, lost 17-10 vs. Chattanooga, and last week gave up an early 14-3 lead on Top 10 Mercer and lost 37-31. Controversial flags were thrown on back-to-back ETSU onside kick recoveries.
Sometimes it is the bounce of the ball or unfortunate whistles not going your way. But at some point, you need to find ways to win those close games. I think that fortune turns ETSU’s way this weekend, especially at home. It seems like a team destined to make the playoffs, but that won’t happen unless the Bucs get a win on Saturday. A costly turnover late is the difference in this back-and-forth battle.
RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams
Prediction: ETSU 34-31
No. 16 Central Arkansas at Eastern Kentucky
UCA, ranked No. 11 last week and once ranked in the Top 5 this fall, lost 34-21 to Utah Tech, who was previously winless. Will McElvain threw four interceptions, plus standout RB ShunDerrick Powell didn’t play.
EKU, meanwhile, went on the road and beat No. 7 Tarleton State 17-13.
Central Arkansas is now 6-3 overall and 6-2 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and no currently-ranked wins. EKU is 5-4 overall and 5-2 vs. the FCS with one ranked win.
Trying to predict UAC games continues to be difficult. What UCA team shows up? The Bears look legit some weeks, but on the road this year, the good version of the Bears hasn’t been there, losing its last two road games at ACU and Utah Tech.
EKU is 4-0 at home, so we’ll just side with the home team. In a league with many good backs, EKU’s Joshua Carter is among them with 861 yards and 10 scores on the ground.
Prediction: EKU 28-21
More FCS Predictions
Robert Morris at No. 25 Duquesne
Prediction: Duquesne 27-21
Lehigh at Holy Cross
Prediction: Holy Cross 28-24
Drake at St. Thomas
Prediction: Drake 24-17
Lamar at No. 8 UIW
Prediction: UIW 35-24
Sacramento State at No. 2 Montana State
Prediction: Montana State 38-21
No. 15 Abilene Christian at Austin Peay
Prediction: ACU 34-21
No. 9 Idaho at Portland State
Prediction: Idaho 38-28
UAlbany at No. 17 Stony Brook
Prediction: Stony Brook 27-17
