The FCS playoff picture will take shape with Week 13 games a day before FCS Selection Sunday.
The Top 4 seeds could be pretty clear, depending on results. The Top 5 seeds could also get real messy, depending on results.
Two Top 10-ranked matchups will especially impact the order of the overall Top 8 seeds: No. 1 NDSU at No. 4 USD and No. 9 Montana at No. 2 Montana State.
What does this weekend’s result mean for these four teams and their playoff positioning? We’ll go through the scenarios below.
For the purposes of this article, we’ll say things go chalk and No. 5 UC Davis wins at Sac State and No. 3 SDSU wins at No. 18 Missouri State, which is no guarantee, but they would be big upsets if Davis or SDSU were to lose.
If Montana State & NDSU Win
NDSU and Montana State should be the Top 2 playoff seeds with home-field advantage.
It will be a healthy discussion in the selection room and during the committee member voting process on who the No. 1 seed is.
- NDSU: 11-1 overall, 11-0 vs. the FCS, 5 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 1 strength of schedule
- MSU: 12-0 overall, 3 currently-ranked wins, 3 Top 10 wins, FBS win, No. 22 SOS
NDSU has been ranked No. 1 for most of this year, and the committee could have the same mindset as voters, similar to 2022.
Two years ago, Sac State had a better on-paper resume than SDSU, but SDSU, who was ranked No. 1 for most of the season, got the top seed. Sac State was 11-0 with an FBS win, four ranked wins, and the No. 4 SOS. SDSU was 10-1 overall, 10-0 vs. the FCS, three ranked wins, and the No. 5 SOS.
Seeds 3-4 behind NDSU and MSU would probably be SDSU and UC Davis, assuming they win on Saturday.
- SDSU: 10-2 overall, 9-1 vs. the FCS, 9 D1 wins, 3 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 3 SOS, FCS loss to NDSU
- UC Davis: 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, 2 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 15 SOS, FCS loss to MSU
Mercer, Idaho, or UIW could fight for the No. 5 seed after this.
With a loss, Montana would finish 8-4 overall/vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins. The Grizzlies will likely get a 9-16 seed and host a first-round game.
With a loss, USD will be nervously wondering if it’ll get a first-round bye. The Coyotes would finish 8-3 overall with only seven D1 wins and zero currently-ranked victories. How does that stack up to other teams with nine or 10 D1 wins who are fighting for a Top 8 seed? USD’s No. 8 SOS could help its argument, and if it were to lose to NDSU, a close loss would be important for the “eye test” instead of getting blown out.
If Montana State & USD Win
Montana State should jump to the No. 1 seed at 12-0, three currently-ranked wins, three Top 10 wins, and an FBS win.
With a loss, Montana would finish 8-4 overall/vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins. The Grizzlies will likely get a 9-16 seed and host a first-round game.
Seeds 2-5 then get very interesting in this scenario. The committee would have to sort through these teams to seed behind Montana State (assuming SDSU and UC Davis win on Saturday):
- UC Davis: 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, 2 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 15 SOS, FCS loss to MSU
- NDSU: 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, 4 currently-ranked wins, 1 Top 10 win, No. 1 SOS, FCS loss to USD
- USD: 9-2 overall, 8-1 vs. the FCS, 8 D1 wins, 1 currently-ranked win, 1 Top 10 win, No. 8 SOS, FCS loss to SDSU
- SDSU: 10-2 overall, 9-1 vs. the FCS, 9 D1 wins, 3 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 3 SOS, FCS loss to NDSU
Related Articles
If Montana & NDSU Win
Montana should get into the Top 8 seeds at 9-3 overall/vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins, one Top 10 win, and the No. 18 SOS. The Griz would likely be in the 6-8 seed range.
NDSU should secure the No. 1 seed with a win and a Montana State loss. The Bison would be 11-1 overall, 11-0 vs. the FCS, five currently-ranked wins, two Top 10 wins, and the No. 1 SOS.
Seeds 2-4 then get very interesting in this scenario. The committee would have to sort through these teams to seed behind NDSU (assuming SDSU and UC Davis win on Saturday):
- UC Davis: 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, 2 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 15 SOS, FCS loss to MSU
- MSU: 11-1 overall, 11 D1 wins, 2 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, FBS win, No. 22 SOS, FCS loss to Montana
- SDSU: 10-2 overall, 9-1 vs. the FCS, 9 D1 wins, 3 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 3 SOS, FCS loss to NDSU
Mercer, Idaho, or UIW could fight for the No. 5 seed after this.
With a loss, USD will be nervously wondering if it’ll get a first-round bye. The Coyotes would finish 8-3 overall with only seven D1 wins and zero currently-ranked victories. How does that stack up to other teams with nine or 10 D1 wins who are fighting for a Top 8 seed? USD’s No. 8 SOS could help its argument, and if it were to lose to NDSU, a close loss would be important for the “eye test” instead of getting blown out.
If Montana & USD Win
Montana should get into the Top 8 seeds at 9-3 overall/vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins, one Top 10 win, and the No. 18 SOS. The Griz would likely be in the 6-8 seed range.
Seeds 1-5 would be an absolute battle in this scenario. The committee would have to sort through these teams to seed the Top 5 (assuming SDSU and UC Davis win on Saturday):
- UC Davis: 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, 2 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 15 SOS, FCS loss to MSU
- MSU: 11-1 overall, 11 D1 wins, 2 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, FBS win, No. 22 SOS, FCS loss to Montana
- SDSU: 10-2 overall, 9-1 vs. the FCS, 9 D1 wins, 3 currently-ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins, No. 3 SOS, FCS loss to NDSU
- NDSU: 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, 4 currently-ranked wins, 1 Top 10 win, No. 1 SOS, FCS loss to USD
- USD: 9-2 overall, 8-1 vs. the FCS, 8 D1 wins, 1 currently-ranked win, 1 Top 10 win, No. 8 SOS, FCS loss to SDSU
Uffda. Good luck!
