When the season started, no one predicted that we’d get the Southwestern Athletic Conference Football Championship game we’re getting this Saturday, including myself.
League coaches and sports information directors forecasted Jackson State to finish third in the SWAC East and Southern fourth in the SWAC West while bestowing preseason all-conference honors on ten players from both teams.
Fast forward a little over four months. The Jaguars (8-4, 7-1) would win their ninth divisional title during the championship game era while earning eight wins for the first time in five years. The Tigers (10-2, 8-0) would compile at least ten victories in a campaign for the third time in four seasons and win their eighth divisional crown. And, of the ten total players from both programs earning All-SWAC selections this postseason, seven weren’t recognized this summer.
Saturday’s game will be a rematch of their Sept. 14 non-conference matchup, where Jackson State would come out on top 33-15 at Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium. The win would be the fifth consecutive for the Tigers in the series.
But what is the old football adage? It’s hard to defeat the same team twice in the same season. In the case of the SWAC, the team that has won the regular-season matchup has gone on to win the championship game rematch almost 70% of the time (16-7).
Nevertheless, both teams are in search of their fourth title game victory.
Either Jackson State can become the third team in Cricket Celebration Bowl history (Alcorn State-3, North Carolina A&T-4) to make their third appearance, or Southern will travel to Atlanta for the first time in December to represent the SWAC in the Black College Football title game.
Here is my preview and prediction for this week’s title game.
2024 SWAC Championship Game
Southern (8-4, 7-1) at #15 Jackson State (10-2, 8-0), Saturday, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
When Southern Has the Ball
Key Players
Jaguars: RB Kobe Dillon, RB Kendric Rhymes, QB Jalen Woods
Tigers: DB Robert McDaniel, DL Joshua Nobles, DB Ke’Vric Wiggins Jr.
After 12 weeks of searching for stability at quarterback, first-year head coach Terrence Graves would eventually settle on Jalen Woods as their signal caller. The freshman from College Park, Ga, has passed for 390 yards and two touchdowns against two interceptions in his two starts this season. However, the strength of their offense resides in their ground game.
Southern has tallied 805 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 164 carries during their current four-game win streak.
The Jags’ running back committee, led by Dillon (760 rushing yards, touchdown) and Rhymes (614 rushing yards, seven touchdowns), is about to face a Tiger defense that ranks as one of the best in the nation.
The FCS’s fifth-best total defense, led by first-team all-conference performers Nobles (51 total tackles, 9 sacks, two forced fumbles) and Wiggins (27 total tackles, three interceptions, eight pass breakups), are second in the SWAC in points allowed (18.3), rushing defense (115.4), and sacks (31). Jackson State has also limited teams to a total of 10 points in the second half of their last six contests,
Southern must find a way to redeem themselves of their early season struggles against the Tigers, rushing for 29 yards on 21 carries.
When Jackson State Has the Ball
Key Players
Tigers: WR Joanes Fortilien, QB Jacobian Morgan, RB Irv Mulligan
Jaguars: DL Ckelby Givens, LB Vincent Paige Jr., S Elijah West
After a rough 0-3 start to their season against non-conference FCS opponents, being outscored 105-29 during that span, Southern’s defense would limit league competition to 18.4 points per game.
Givens, the conference’s Co-Defensive Player of the Year, led the nation in tackles for loss (26.5) while being a key contributor to a Jags defense that has held teams to 210 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 99 carries in their last three games. Paige (75 total tackles, 4.5 sacks) is the team’s leader in tackles.
If you’re Southern, your game plan might be to slow down Mulligan and then deal with Morgan as they look to curb the nation’s sixth-best scoring offense (36.8 points per game).
Containing the SWAC’s Offensive Player of the Year will be challenging. The league’s leading rusher has tallied 100-plus yards five times this season on his way to becoming the 13th player in school history to rush for over 1,000 yards.
All-SWAC Second Team performer Jacobian Morgan (2,267 total yards, 25 touchdowns, six interceptions) and wide receiver Joanes Fortilien (561 receiving yards, eight touchdowns) have also been key contributors to a JSU offense that has scored at least 33 points nine times this season.
SWAC Championship Prediction
The Tigers, who are currently riding an eight-game win streak, haven’t lost a home game in over 380 days, outscoring opponents 218-60 in Jackson this season. If the Jags want to snap both streaks, they must adhere to Graves’ mantra of “start fast, finish strong.” Southern must score points against a stingy JSU defense or slow down the SWAC’s best-scoring offense to fulfill their aspirations of winning their first conference title in 11 years.
Tigers 35, Jaguars 24
