Earning one of the Top 8 FCS playoff seeds in the 24-team bracket is huge. In the last three postseasons, seeds 1-8 are 22-2 in the second round after first-round byes.
Who is still in contention for a Top 8 seed heading into Week 12? Let’s break it down.
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Teams in each conference are listed in alphabetical order.
Media poll rankings are provided to help show where teams are currently ranked. While the polls are not a metric used by the playoff committee, members are naturally aware of the rankings and usually are pretty similar to voters in their thinking as a collective.
Big Sky
Idaho
Media Poll Rank: No. 8
Idaho should beat Weber State at home and Idaho State on the road. If the Vandals do, they would finish 9-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with three then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins, plus an FBS win. Coupled with a Massey projected year-end strength of schedule that is ranked 6th, and that could see Idaho in the Top 8 seeds.
Montana
Media Poll Rank: No. 10
Currently at 7-3 overall/vs. the FCS with two then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins, Montana has to win out to earn a first-round bye. That would mean beating Portland State at home and winning at No. 2 Montana State to finish 9-3. If the Griz beat PSU and lose at MSU, they are likely hosting a first-round game as a seeded team somewhere in the 9-16 range.
Montana State
Media Poll Rank: No. 2
Montana State is currently 10-0, featuring one then-ranked win and one currently-ranked win, plus an FBS win. The Bobcats are likely already a Top 8 seed regardless of how the last two games go — at No. 4 UC Davis and vs. No. 10 Montana. Win out, and they should be a Top 2 seed at 12-0. Go 1-1, and they could still be in the conversation for a Top 4 or 5 seed at 11-1, depending on what happens elsewhere. Go 0-2, and they could still get a 6-8 seed at 10-2 — MSU’s 22nd projected year-end strength of schedule would help it get seeded before some other 10-win teams.
UC Davis
Media Poll Rank: No. 4
UC Davis is currently 9-1 overall and 9-0 vs. the FCS with two then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins. The Aggies host No. 2 Montana State this weekend before traveling to rival Sac State, which should be a win. Go 2-0, and UC Davis should be a Top 2 seed at 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with three ranked wins. Finish 1-1 by losing to MSU and beating Sac State, and the Aggies could still be a Top 5 seed at 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS.
Big South-OVC
SEMO
Media Poll Rank: No. 12
SEMO is currently 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and one currently-ranked win. A tough two-score loss to Lindenwood, who was 4-6, could really set the Redhawks back in the seeds. If they beat Western Illinois at home and Tennessee State (who is 7-3) on the road, they would be 10-1 vs. the FCS with one ranked win. The question would be if the loss to Lindenwood, a projected year-end strength of schedule ranked 81st, and just one ranked win will prevent the committee from giving SEMO a Top 8 seed.
UT Martin has a chance to hit nine wins, but likely lacks the number of ranked wins to get a first-round bye.
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CAA
Rhode Island
Media Poll Rank: No. 15
Rhody is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and no currently-ranked wins. The Rams have winnable games vs. UAlbany and at Bryant to finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS. Their projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 47th. The question for Rhody is if the lack of ranked wins and its SOS will prevent it from getting a Top 8 seed.
Richmond
Media Poll Rank: No. 11
Richmond is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS. The Spiders don’t own any ranked wins, but they do have a quality victory over Delaware, who is now 8-1. Delaware isn’t eligible to be voted on in the polls as it transitions to the FBS. Winnable games remain at Hampton and vs. William & Mary to finish 10-1 vs. the FCS and 8-0 in the CAA. Richmond’s projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 66th. Winning the CAA could get Richmond a first-round bye, but the lack of ranked wins and its SOS could be questioned by the committee.
Stony Brook
Media Poll Rank: No. 16
Stony Brook is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and no currently-ranked wins. The Seawolves have challenging, but winnable games at UNH and vs. Monmouth. They could win out and finish 10-1 vs. the FCS with a projected year-end strength of schedule ranked 54th. The question for Stony Brook is if the lack of ranked wins and its SOS will prevent it from getting a Top 8 seed.
Villanova
Media Poll Rank: No. 9
Nova is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and one currently-ranked win. The Wildcats play at Monmouth and host Delaware, a rankable team that is not eligible to be in the polls. If they are able to win out, that’s a 10-1 vs. the FCS record with two quality wins over Stony Brook and Delaware. That could get Nova a Top 8 seed, but its projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 55th, and Richmond may have a better argument to be seeded higher if the Spiders also went 10-1 vs. the FCS and 8-0 in the CAA.
The CAA could have four teams with 10 wins. How those four are slotted within the 16 seeds will be an interesting case study of how the committee views the currently-16-team league and its unbalanced scheduling where they barely played each other.
MVFC
North Dakota State
Media Poll Rank: No. 1
NDSU is 9-1 overall and 9-0 vs. the FCS with three then-ranked wins and three currently-ranked wins. The Bison have two more opportunities for ranked wins — vs. No. 14 Missouri State and at No. 5 South Dakota. Go 2-0, and NDSU should be a Top 2 seed at 11-0 vs. the FCS. Split these games, and NDSU could still get a Top 4 or 5 seed at 10-1 vs. the FCS, depending on other results. Go 0-2, and a 9-2 vs. the FCS Bison squad still has a decent shot at a first-round bye, especially with a projected year-end strength of schedule ranked 3rd and three ranked wins, including over SDSU.
South Dakota
Media Poll Rank: No. 5
USD is 7-2 overall and 6-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and no currently-ranked wins. The Coyotes should beat unranked UND this week, although that is in Grand Forks. They then host No. 1 NDSU. If USD wins both, it is in the conversation for a Top 4 seed at 9-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS, highlighted by knocking off the top-ranked Bison. If the Yotes beat UND and then lose to NDSU, they will be 8-3 overall with only seven D1 wins and zero currently-ranked victories. Is that good enough for a first-round bye? Their projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 8th, which could help. However, USD’s lower number of D1 wins and no currently-ranked wins would hurt.
South Dakota State
Media Poll Rank: No. 3
SDSU is 8-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS with three then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins. SDSU has a favorable home game vs. SIU this week before traveling to No. 14 Missouri State. The Jackrabbits secure a first-round bye with a win over SIU. If they beat Mo State, it likely secures a Top 3 seed at 9-1 vs. the FCS and a few ranked wins, although UC Davis beating Montana State and USD beating NDSU could create quite a conundrum of one-FCS-loss teams between SDSU, NDSU, USD, and Montana State. SDSU’s projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 4th.
Illinois State has a chance to hit nine wins, but likely lacks the number of ranked wins to get a first-round bye.
SoCon
Mercer
Media Poll Rank: No. 7
Mercer is currently 9-1 overall/vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins. Its last two games are at Alabama and vs. Furman. The Bears should beat Furman, although the SoCon has had regular-season finale upsets before. If Mercer beats Alabama, the Bears will be eliminated from FCS playoff contention and inserted into the College Football Playoff. But at a projected 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with multiple ranked wins, Mercer will be in the mix for a Top 5 seed. Their projected year-end strength of schedule of 60th may prevent the Bears from getting inside the Top 4, though.
Southland
UIW
Media Poll Rank: No. 6
UIW is 8-2 overall/vs. the FCS with zero then-ranked wins and one currently-ranked win. The Cardinals should be rooting for Northern Arizona to win out and remain ranked, or else UIW will lack any ranked victories. UIW goes to SFA this week, a team in playoff contention, and then goes to East Texas A&M. The Cardinals likely need to win out to earn a Top 8 seed. At 10-2 with potentially one ranked win and a projected year-end SOS of 51st, that could put UIW in the 6-8 seed range, depending on what happens elsewhere. UIW may also need a bit of help to get into the Top 8, as the Cardinals were No. 9 in the committee’s Top 10 in late October.
United Athletic Conference
Abilene Christian
Media Poll Rank: No. 14
ACU is 7-3 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win. The Wildcats visit No. 14 Tarleton State this week and then go to SFA, two teams in the playoff hunt. If they win out to finish 9-2 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins, that could get ACU into the Top 8 seeds, depending on what happens elsewhere. A pretty good projected year-end strength of schedule ranked 26th could help their argument. Although there will be a lot of 10-win teams fighting for a first-round bye, and a 9-win Idaho team would have an argument over a 9-win ACU team due to the head-to-head win.
Tarleton State
Media Poll Rank: No. 13
Tarleton is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins. The Texans have two ranked opponents coming at home — vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian and No. 24 Central Arkansas, although UCA may not be ranked by then if it loses again this week. Tarleton likely has to win out to have a shot at a first-round bye, finishing 10-1 vs. the FCS with one or two ranked wins. Its projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 45th, which could potentially push Tarleton out of the Top 8 along with its lack of multiple ranked wins (UCA’s ranking by Week 13 is in question).
