Another Top 5 showdown occurs this week in the FCS as No. 5 Weber State visits No. 3 Montana State.
Montana State is 6-1 overall and 6-0 vs. the FCS. The Bobcats have one then-ranked win at No. 15 Eastern Washington and have zero now-ranked wins. MSU’s Massey strength of schedule is ranked 31st.
Weber State is 6-0 overall, including a 35-7 FBS win at Utah State and a non-counter win vs. Western Oregon. The Wildcats have one then-ranked win against No. 24 EWU and have zero now-ranked wins. Weber’s Massey strength of schedule is ranked 28th.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams for playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
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If Montana State Wins…
MSU has the most favorable draw as the four Top 10 ranked Big Sky teams have games against each other coming up. The Bobcats avoid No. 2 Sac State and get No. 5 Weber State and No. 7 Montana at home. They are 12-0 at home under head coach Brent Vigen. MSU also has road trips to Northern Arizona and Cal Poly.
If the Bobcats win Saturday, they put themselves firmly in the picture for a Top 3 seed heading into the Brawl of the Wild, just like last year. Of course, that is assuming they get wins at NAU and Cal Poly. Montana State would be 9-0 vs. the FCS with a Top 5-ranked win, plus helping knock EWU out of the rankings. Regardless of where Montana is ranked for the Brawl (it could be anywhere from inside the Top 5 to outside the Top 15), a win over their rival puts the Bobcats at 10-0 vs. the FCS with three total ranked wins at the time of the games.
That should give MSU a Top 3 seed. If SDSU and Sac State win out, the Bobcats would likely be seeded behind them. The Jacks would be undefeated vs. the FCS with three then-ranked wins, including winning at No. 1 NDSU. Sac State would be 11-0 with an FBS win and three ranked wins, two vs. Top 10 ranked teams. If SDSU or Sac State drop a game, then a Top 2 seed and home-field advantage are there for the taking if the Bobcats beat Montana.
Beating Weber, NAU, and Cal Poly, but then losing to the Griz would get the Bobcats a seed at 9-1 vs. the FCS, but what number that seed would be depends on how Weber and Montana, plus others outside the Big Sky, finish record-wise.
A losing Weber team isn’t in terrible shape. It just puts a higher sense of urgency to knock off its next two opponents (vs. No. 7 Montana and vs. No. 2 Sac State) to position itself in the playoffs.
Weber could likely afford two losses somewhere and still be a seed. At 9-2 overall with an FBS win, a then-ranked win vs. EWU, and a Top 10 win against either MSU, Montana, or Sac State is seedable, although the non-counter win would put the Wildcats at eight wins in the eyes of the committee.
A 10-1 Weber team that loses Saturday’s game is likely somewhere in the Top 4 seeds with that FBS victory and Top 10 wins vs. Montana and Sac State, depending on how SDSU, NDSU, and MSU finish their seasons. An 8-3 Weber team (7 D1 wins) that loses to all of these Top 10 ranked teams is in the playoffs, but not a seed.
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If Weber State Wins…
The toughest draw for the four Top 10 ranked Big Sky teams is No. 7 Montana, who has to go to No. 2 Sac State, No. 5 Weber, and No. 3 MSU. The second-toughest draw would be Weber since Sac State and MSU avoid each other. Weber gets MSU, Montana, and Sac State three weeks in a row, although the last two are at home. The final two games for Weber are vs. Idaho State and at NAU. We’ll chalk those two up as wins, so these next few weeks could give Weber the possible No. 1 seed, or result in the Wildcats playing on Thanksgiving weekend.
A Weber win on Saturday gives the Wildcats a Top 2 resume heading into Week 9 at 7-0 with an FBS win, a non-counter win, a win against then-ranked EWU, and a Top 3-ranked win at MSU. If Weber wins out from there, an 11-0 Weber team with two more Top 10 ranked wins should probably be the No. 1 seed, ahead of a potential 10-0 vs. the FCS SDSU team with three total ranked wins and a then-No. 1-ranked win at NDSU. But even a No. 2 seed guarantees home-field advantage.
If Weber wins this weekend and drops one game later, a Top 4 seed is still possible at 10-1, depending on who they lose to and how the top teams in the Big Sky/MVFC finish. Beating MSU, but then losing to Montana and Sac State results in a 9-2 Weber team in the 7-8 seed range. But, of course, other results and records across the country will help determine that.
An MSU loss moves the Bobcats to 6-2 overall and 6-1 in the eyes of the playoff committee. While there are never any gimmes, let’s assume they respond and win at NAU and Cal Poly. That puts massive implications, per usual, for the regular-season finale vs. Montana. A win against their rival and a 9-1 FCS record with two then-ranked wins (EWU and Montana) and one current-ranked win (assuming Montana will be ranked) probably gets the Bobcats a seed around No. 5. A Top 4 seed is possible, but that would depend on where Montana is ranked at the time of the game and how teams like SDSU, NDSU, Weber, and Sac State finish.
If MSU loses this weekend, wins twice on the road, and then loses to Montana, the Bobcats are probably playing in the first round at 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with no wins against teams in the playoff picture (unless UC Davis and/or EWU win out).
And of course, there are so many results to come across the FCS, especially in the Big Sky and MVFC, two conferences that look to take up the Top 4 seeds. A lot, including upsets and unexpected losses, can happen. But above are several different scenarios that can play out for the winner and loser of this huge Top 5 showdown.
