A third Top 10 FCS matchup in two weeks highlights this weekend as No. 7 Montana heads to No. 2 Sacramento State. The night game will be televised on ESPN2.
Sac State is 6-0 overall with a dominant FBS win over Colorado State. The Hornets do not currently own any ranked FCS wins. Their Massey strength of schedule is ranked 18th in the FCS.
Montana is 5-1 overall, suffering its first loss last week to Idaho. The Grizzlies also do not currently own any ranked FCS wins. Their Massey strength of schedule is ranked 60th in the FCS.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams for playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
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If Sac State Wins…
The Griz have the toughest draw of the four Top 10 ranked Big Sky teams, having to go to No. 2 Sac State, No. 5 Weber, and No. 3 Montana State. Sac State, despite avoiding MSU, has a difficult route as well to a high playoff seed. The Hornets get No. 7 Montana at home, No. 17 Idaho at home, goes to No. 5 Weber, goes to Portland State, and then host UC Davis, who might be in a win-and-in situation if the Aggies win out leading up to the Causeway Classic.
A win Saturday gets Sac State past its toughest FCS opponent to date and continues to etch its name in the 2022 FCS Top Tier, even if the hype on the Griz has cooled off after their home loss to Idaho.
If the Hornets go 11-0, go ahead and give them the No. 1 seed without much debate, even if SDSU finishes 10-0 vs. the FCS with a win at then-No. 1 NDSU. The Hornets would have an FBS win, two Top 10-ranked wins on Montana and Weber, and another ranked win vs. Idaho. Even one loss somewhere down the line should still get them a Top 4 seed (depending on how other top Big Sky teams and how SDSU/NDSU finish) at 10-1 featuring the FBS win and two or three ranked wins against Montana, Weber, or Idaho.
If Sac State beats Montana and then loses two games, let’s say to Weber and Idaho, a 9-2 Hornets squad with that FBS win and the Montana victory is in the conversation for a seed. But MSU, Weber, and Idaho could be three Big Sky teams more seedable than Sac State. And due to SDSU, NDSU, Holy Cross, UIW, the SoCon and/or CAA champ all potentially being seeds, the Big Sky getting four seeds would require a lot of results to go their way.
A losing Montana team puts the Griz in an interesting (or nerve-wracking if you’re a fan) spot in the playoff picture. Why? Because then the conversation begins on if Montana — who was getting national title contender love a week ago — will even make the playoffs.
Now, Montana can lose this game, then win out and be right back in the conversation for a seed at 9-2 and two Top 10 wins at Weber and MSU, assuming the Griz get home wins vs. Cal Poly and EWU. If Montana loses this game, then loses again vs. either Weber or MSU, it would be an unseeded playoff team at 8-3 with a ranked win over either Weber or MSU.
But … let’s just say Montana loses on the road to all three of its Top 10 opponents. At 7-4, again assuming wins vs. Cal Poly and EWU, what wins on Montana’s resume says playoff-worthy?
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If Montana Wins…
The Griz would be 1-for-1 as part of its tough road slate — at No. 2 Sac State, No. 5 Weber, and No. 3 Montana State.
The win doesn’t make us completely forget about the Idaho loss, but it would continue to show how legit Idaho is while telling us the Griz are still contenders to play deep into the FCS bracket.
If Montana runs the table, a Top 2 seed may be attainable at 10-1 since the Griz would knock Sac State, Weber, and MSU all out of that Top 2 conversation. It would depend on how SDSU and NDSU finish their seasons, and don’t sleep on Idaho potentially finishing 9-0 vs. the FCS if it can win at Sac State next weekend. But a 10-1 Montana team that has three highly-ranked road wins is certainly somewhere in the Top 4 seeds.
Montana can win Saturday’s game, lose one more, and have a shot at a seed at 9-2 featuring two highly-ranked wins. Depending on how the Big Sky race shakes out and what happens with teams like SDSU, NDSU, Holy Cross, UIW, and the CAA/SoCon champs, a 9-2 Montana or Sac State team will have a strong argument for a seed, but it’s not a lock as of right now.
Winning Saturday but losing two more games gets Montana in the playoffs at 8-3 and the win on No. 2 Sac State, but it probably won’t be a seed. There will be too many seedable teams for an 8-3 squad to be in the Top 8.
A Sac State loss doesn’t derail its shot at a Top 4 seed, but home-field advantage is probably out the window with a loss. A 10-1 Sac State team that owns an FBS win and two ranked wins over Weber and Idaho can get a Top 4 seed, depending on how SDSU, NDSU, Montana, and Montana State finish.
If Sac State loses to Montana and drops another contest, a 9-2 Hornets squad is still in the conversation for a seed thanks to its FBS win and a ranked win against either Weber Or Idaho. The Hornets would have to hope for NDSU to drop another game, Fordham to beat Holy Cross, UIW to lose again, and the CAA and SoCon to beat up each other to increase their likelihood of getting a seed. At 9-2 featuring an FBS win and a ranked win against either Idaho or Weber, the resume is seedable but not a lock just yet.
An 8-3 Sac State team is in the bracket playing in the first round, helped by the FBS win. And hey, we threw the scenario out there about Montana losing to its three upcoming ranked opponents. What about the Hornets? If Sac State lost to ranked Montana, Idaho, and Weber, then beat Portland State and was 7-3 going into the final game against a potentially 6-4 UC Davis team, that could be a playoff play-in game.
And of course, there are so many results still to come across the FCS, especially in the Big Sky and MVFC, two conferences that look to take up the Top 4 seeds. A lot, including upsets and unexpected losses, can happen. But above are several different scenarios that can play out for the winner and loser of this huge Top 5 showdown.
