The 2022 FCS playoff bracket has 11 auto-bids and 13 at-large bids. Eight teams will be seeded with first-round byes. The national championship game is scheduled for January 8 in Frisco, Texas. It will air on ABC.
The games are done, and now it’s time for our final predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.
Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
Interview with Playoff Committee Chair Jermaine Truax
The Field
2021 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 7/8 seeds correct, 24/24 teams correct
Seeds
1. Sac State
2. SDSU
3. Montana State
4. NDSU
5. Samford
6. William & Mary
7. Weber State
8. Holy Cross
Auto-Bids
ASUN-WAC – Eastern Kentucky
Big Sky – Sac State
Big South – Gardner-Webb
CAA – William & Mary
MVFC – SDSU
NEC – Saint Francis
OVC – SEMO
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Davidson
SoCon – Samford
Southland – Southeastern Louisiana University
At-Large Bids
Montana State (seed)
NDSU (seed)
Weber State (seed)
UIW
Furman
Elon
Richmond
New Hampshire
Idaho
Last 4 in
21. Fordham
22. Chattanooga
23. North Dakota
24. UC Davis
First 5 Out
25. Delaware
26. Montana
27. Mercer
28. Youngstown State
29. Florida A&M
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket is regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee must utilize as many bus trips as possible in the first round. Bus trips (400 miles or less) are Gardner-Webb-Eastern Kentucky, SEMO-Chattanooga, Fordham-New Hampshire, Furman-Richmond, and Davidson-Elon.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Non-conference opponents who did play each other in the regular season can be matched up in the opening round.
Once first-round teams are paired up via proximity, they will be slotted with the seeds that are (again) as close as possible regionally.
The order of seeds is NOT determined by regionalization. The seeds also can’t be adjusted once set to even out the sides of the bracket.
Here is a Twitter thread on how the seeding process works.
This does not indicate the home team for the first-round games. The home team in a game between two unseeded teams is determined by who submitted the higher bid to host.
The Explanation
Seeds
The top two seeds are a close argument between SDSU and Sac State. The committee could mirror what poll voters think and put SDSU No. 1. I do think Sac State has a slight edge if they evaluate the resumes more.
#1 Sac State is 11-0 with an FBS win on Colorado State and four ranked wins (No. 13 Montana, No. 21 Idaho, No. 7 Weber, No. 24 UC Davis). Sac State’s Massey SOS is No. 4, one spot ahead of SDSU.
#2 South Dakota State is 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS with three now-ranked wins (No. 4 NDSU, No. 16 UND, No. 24 UC Davis). SDSU’s SOS is No. 5.
#3 Montana State certainly impressed the committee by dominating Montana. The Bobcats are 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS with three now-ranked wins (No. 7 Weber, No. 24 UC Davis, No. 13 Montana). MSU’s No. 15 SOS is good, but it will likely prevent it from jumping SDSU or Sac State in the seeds.
I think North Dakota State will get the #4 seed based on being last year’s national champ and only losing by a combined five points to SDSU and Arizona. But its resume isn’t great, so could Samford or W&M jump the Bison? Maybe! NDSU finishes 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with one ranked win over No. 16 UND. Its SOS is No. 21, three spots behind Samford.
#5 Samford will have a case for the No. 4 seed at 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS with three now-ranked wins (No. 12 Furman, No. 15 Chattanooga, No. 19 Mercer). Its SOS is No. 18.
#6 William & Mary also has a great resume at 10-1 overall with an FBS win (Charlotte) and three then-ranked wins and two now-ranked wins (No. 20 Delaware, No. 11 Richmond). Its SOS of No. 49 may prevent it from jumping Samford or NDSU.
#7 Weber State finishes 9-2 overall with eight D1 wins, including FBS Utah State and two now-ranked wins (No. 13 Montana, No. 24 UC Davis). Its SOS is No. 12, which I believe will make them seeded higher than Holy Cross and UIW.
The #8 seed looks to be between Holy Cross and UIW. I’ll lean toward the committee going with HC with its undefeated record. Holy Cross is 11-0 (11 D1 wins) with an FBS win over Buffalo and a ranked win over No. 21 Fordham. It does have a weaker SOS of No. 79, though. UIW is 10-1 overall with nine D1 wins, an FBS win over Nevada, one then-ranked win, and zero now-ranked wins. Its SOS is No. 58.
At-Large Bids
After the three at-large bids that are seeds…
I talked about UIW just being outside of a seed above.
Furman is comfortably in at 9-2 overall with eight D1 wins and an 8-1 vs. the FCS record. Furman has three then-ranked wins and two now-ranked (No. 15 Chattanooga, No. 19 Mercer).
Elon should feel comfortable getting in too at 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with three now-ranked wins (No. 8 W&M, No. 11 Richmond, No. 20 Delaware).
Richmond lost a battle vs. W&M this weekend, but it has an 8-2 vs. the FCS record with three then-ranked wins and two now-ranked wins (No. 18 UNH, No. 20 Delaware).
New Hampshire is 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS, including a key ranked win over Elon, who is also in the field.
Idaho is one of several 7-4 teams, but it does have a 7-2 FCS record. Its win at then-No. 3 Montana will stick out, as will its SOS of No. 11.
Multiple seven-win teams losing and not hitting eight D1 wins really benefitted Fordham. It is 9-2 overall with nine D1 wins. The Rams do not have any ranked wins and its SOS is not great at No. 78, but it has one-score losses to FBS Ohio and to Holy Cross, who may be a seed. The committee does look at how you lost.
Chattanooga just lost to unranked WCU, which could hurt the Mocs. But at 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS with a ranked win over Mercer and a SOS of No. 26, I think the SoCon earned enough respect to get one of its seven-win teams in.
North Dakota is another 7-4 team, 7-3 vs. the FCS. It has two then-ranked wins and no now-ranked wins. It does have a win over Youngstown State, who is a bubble team. UND has the No. 2 SOS, which will really stick out to the committee.
I didn’t think 6-5 would make it this year, but UC Davis has a legit case. It is 6-4 vs. the FCS with four losses to Top 10 teams and only losing by a score to SDSU, Weber State, and just took Sac State to the wire. UC Davis also owns a dominant win from Week 11 against Idaho, who looks to be in the field. UC Davis had a five-game winning streak of crushing opponents until losing 27-21 tonight at Sac State. UC Davis also has the No. 7 SOS, higher than the bubble teams below.
Bubble Teams
Delaware is 7-4 overall and has an FBS win and one then-ranked win, but it lost three of its final four games, including to unranked Nova this weekend.
Montana is 7-4 with no ranked wins. It does have close road losses to highly-ranked teams Weber and Sac State without starting QB Lucas Johnson, but losing 55-21 to Montana State (with Johnson) may be the reason the committee leaves the Griz out since the quality losses argument weakened.
Mercer is 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS. It does not own any ranked wins and lost three of its final four games, including the last two. Only losing 50-44 to seeded Samford this weekend could help their case.
Youngstown State is 7-4 and 7-3 vs. the FCS. It does not own any ranked wins, but did win five of its last six games. That momentum at the end could stick out to the committee, but the head-to-head loss to UND and lack of ranked win may not cut it.
Florida A&M has a similar resume as last year’s at-large bid team if it wins out. FAMU is 9-2 overall with eight D1 wins. One loss will be scrapped against FBS UNC. The other loss is 59-3 to highly-ranked Jackson State, compared to last year’s 7-6 loss to JSU. With a projected SOS ranked No. 108 and a more packed bubble, plus last year’s 38-14 first-round loss to SLU not helping its case, FAMU’s chances of making the playoffs are smaller than last season.
