I came ever so close to a perfect 5-0 week of Group of Five bets last week, going 4-1. My lone loss came in the Air Force-New Mexico game when I wagered on under 37.5. The total finished at 38 points.
We’re back at it again this week, trying to grab a 5-0 week before the season ends. Overall, I’m 33-27 (55%) on my Group of Five best bets this season.
Let’s dive through the college football betting odds to find five bets I like this week.
San Diego State -14.5 at New Mexico
A Friday night game, I love the Aztecs in this spot. My concern of course is SDSU’s abysmal offense, but the Aztecs have a top-60 defense, per ESPN’s efficiency metrics. Those same metrics say San Diego State (6-4, 4-2 MWC) boasts one of the best special teams units in the country. I like San Diego State to control this game, especially against a New Mexico team (2-8, 0-6 MWC) that hasn’t lost a game by single digits yet this season.
UAB +14.5 at LSU
LSU (8-2, 6-1 SEC) is just outside the College Football Playoff picture, while UAB (5-5, 3-4 C-USA) needs to win one of its final two games to make a bowl game. Still, I like this spot for the Blazers. They run the ball well with DeWayne McBride, one of the best running backs in the country. They’ve also hung tough in some losses to good teams, including a seven-point loss to Liberty and a six-point loss to UTSA. UAB is a good football team, and I think the Blazers keep this game competitive.
Florida Atlantic -6 at Middle Tennessee
Remember when Middle Tennessee beat Miami? Good times. I don’t see Middle Tennessee (5-5, 2-4 C-USA) beating another Florida team this weekend, as FAU (5-5, 4-2 C-USA) is playing its best football of the season. The Owls have won three of their last four games, including a notable win over UAB and a blowout victory over Florida International last weekend.
Florida Atlantic is capable offensively, but it’s the defense that has me excited. FAU ranks third in C-USA in defensive efficiency, per ESPN, and Middle Tennessee’s offense has lacked consistency for much of the season. I see the Owls causing Middle Tennessee’s passing game problems and them winning by a touchdown or more.
ULM +15 at Troy
Troy might win the Sun Belt. The Trojans are 8-2 and 5-1 in Sun Belt play. They’re really good! But they don’t score that much. Troy scores the second-fewest points per game (21.3) of any SBC team, and only one of their seven FBS wins has been by more than 10 points. And now they’re favored by 15 over a ULM team that’s 4-4 against teams not named Alabama or Texas and riding a two-game winning streak? I just think it’s too many points.
ECU -6 vs. Houston
I’m really high on the Pirates (6-4, 3-3 AAC). I like the way the offense plays, and I think they should score in bunches against Houston, which gave up 36 to Temple last weekend and 77 to SMU the game before Temple. While Houston (6-4, 4-2 AAC) should score plenty of its own, I believe ECU has the more complete team. The Pirates are riding a three-game home winning streak that includes a 21-point win over UCF. Mike Houston has the Pirates rolling, while Houston’s recent AAC wins have come against overmatched opponents.